NOAA's 45th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

Poster session program

Poster Session 1: Tuesday, October 20, 2020 4:30 – 6:00 PM
Each poster presenter has a 5min time slot to summarize their work and should remain in their room for the entire 1.5hr session for additional discussion among meeting attendees who wish to drop in (similar to how a presenter would stand by their poster during an in person workshop).
Room #1 04:30 – 04:35 Google Meet	Predicting Wildfire Favorable Conditions in California at Subseasonal to Seasonal Lead Times Using Remote Predictors Ciara Dorsay, University of California, Bekeley, Tom Murphree, PhD, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Kellen Jones, LCDR, US Navy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey
Room #1 04:35 – 04:40 Google Meet	Predicting summer wildfire activity in Alaska using seasonal forecasts at a 3-month lead Cecilia Borries-Strigle, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Room #2 04:45 – 04:50 Google Meet	Stormwater, Culverts, and Flooding: Putting Climate Projections to Use Guillaume Mauger, Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle
Room #2 04:50 – 04:55 Google Meet	Compound flooding in eastern North Carolina: Understanding stakeholder perceptions and needs Scott Curtis 1, Jamie Kruse 2, Anuradha Mukherji 2, Jennifer Helgeson, 3 (1) James B. Near Jr. '77 Center for Climate Studies, The Citadel, (2) East Carolina University,(3) National Institute of Standards and Technology
Room #3 05:00 – 05:05 Google Meet	Significant Improvement of Dynamical ENSO Forecast with an Artificial Neural Network Peitao Peng, Wanqiu Wang, Yun Fan, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Room #3 05:05 – 05:10 Google Meet	Spatiotemporal Estimates of Smoke Aerosols Using Machine Learning and Climate Forecast Information Cheng-Hsuan (Sarah) Lu 1, Chin-An Lin1, Huang-Hsiung Hsu2, Hsin-Chien Liang2 , Anton Darmenov 3, and Arlindo da Silva3 (1) University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States (2) Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taiwan (3) NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Room #4 05:15 – 05:20 Google Meet	Intraseasonal surface salinity variability and the MJO in a climate model Jieshun Zhu 1,2 , Arun Kumar 1 , Wanqiu Wang 1
Room #4 05:20 – 05:25 Google Meet	Subseasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the Contiguous United States Ty A. Dickinson 1 , Jason C. Furtado 1 , and Michael B. Richman, University of Oklahoma
Room #5 05:30 – 05:35 Google Meet	Developing an Experimental Week-2 Storm Track Outlook over North Pacific, North America, and North Atlantic Yutong Pan 1,2 , Wanqiu Wang 1 , Hui Wang 1 , David DeWitt 1 (1)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/ Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD (2) Innovim LLC, Greenbelt, MD
Room #5 05:35 – 05:40 Google Meet	Using the Daily Change in the Southern Oscillation Index to Develop Analogues and the Relationship to Severe Weather Outbreaks Joseph S. Renken 1 , Jacques Mainguy 2 , Anthony R. Lupo 3 , and Nicholas Wergeles 3 (1) Organic Forecasting, LLC, Columbia, MO (2) System Data Experts, Alberta, CA (3) University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211
Room #6 05:45 – 05:50 Google Meet	Predictability and Skill of an Operational Empirical-Dynamical Model for Weeks 3-4 Northern Hemisphere Forecasts Sam Lillo, John Albers, and Matt Newman,NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Poster Session 2: Wednesday, October 21, 2020 11:00AM – 12:30 PM
Each poster presenter has a 5min time slot to summarize their work and should remain in their room for the entire 1.5hr session for additional discussion among meeting attendees who wish to drop in (similar to how a presenter would stand by their poster during an in person workshop).
Room #7 11:00 – 11:05 Google Meet	The Transition of Global Ensemble Forecast System to Fully Coupled Earth System Model for Sub-seasonal Predictions Yuejian Zhu, Dingchen Hou, Bing Fu, Wei Li, Walter Kolczynski, Hong Guan, Eric Sinsky, Bo Yang, Xianwu Xue, Yan Luo and Jiayi Peng, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center
Room #7 11:05 – 11:10 Google Meet	Evaluation of a SubX Multimodel Ensemble to predict an intraseasonal index for South America based on Outgoing Long Wave Radiation Mariano S. Alvarez, Carolina S. Vera, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la
Room #8 11:15 – 11:20 Google Meet	Seasonal Climate Prediction and Communication Over Senegal using a Multi-Model System Asher Siebert, Sylwia Trzaska, Andrew Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY
Room #8 11:20 – 11:25 Google Meet	Development of Monthly and Seasonal Drought Outlooks for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands Sara T. Strey 1, 2 , Mike Halpert 1 , Matthew Rosencrans 1 , Luke He 1 , and Zeng-Zhen Hu 1 . (1) Climate Prediction Center, and (2) Innovim, LLC
Room #9 11:30 – 11:35 Google Meet	A Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) for Climate Monitoring Wesley Ebisuzaki (1), Leigh Zhang(1,4), Arun Kumar(1), Jeffrey Whitaker(2), Jack Woollen (3,5) 1: NOAA CPC, 2: NOAA Physical Sciences Division, 3: NOAA EMC, 4: Innovim, 5: IMSG
Room #9 11:35 – 11:40 Google Meet	The NMME and Southern Africa's seasonal forecasts Willem A. Landman and Christien Engelbrecht, Natural and Agricultural Sciences University of Pretoria
Room #10 11:45 – 11:50 Google Meet	User Feedback on Potential Changes in the ENSO Alert System Marina Timofeyeva , Viviane Silva, Fiona Horsfall, Mike Halpert, Danielle Nagele
Room #10 11:50 – 11:55 Google Meet	Evolution of the Air Force Global State of the Climate Product Raymond B. Kiess, Justyn D. Jackson , Andrew D. Lahr, Patrick E. Johnston, Robert J. Flakey, Ryan J. Hunt, and William R. Frey
Room #11 12:00 – 12:05 Google Meet	Subseasonal Forecasting Developments at the Climate Prediction Center Emerson LaJoie, Dan Collins, and Johnna Infanti, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Room #11 12:05 – 12:10 Google Meet	Probabilistic multi-model sub-seasonal climate forecasts using skill-based model weighting Bohar Singh, Andrew Robertson, Micheal Tippet and Nachiketa Acharya: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY
Room #12 12:15 – 12:20 Google Meet	Integration of decadal climate trends into the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) calibration of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) temperature and precipitation forecasts Dan Collins (NOAA/CPC), Johnna Infanti (Innovim/CPC), Sarah Strazzo (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University), Andrew Schepen (CSIRO), QJ Wang (University of Melbourne)
Room #12 12:20 – 12:25 Google Meet	Does Non-Gaussian Calibration Improve Multi-Model Seasonal Forecasts? Nachiketa Acharya 1, Michael K Tippett 1,2, Andrew W Robertson 1 and Lisa Goddard 1: (1) International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University (2) Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University

Poster Session 3: Wednesday, October 21, 2020 4:30 – 6:00 PM
Each poster presenter has a 5min time slot to summarize their work and should remain in their room for the entire 1.5hr session for additional discussion among meeting attendees who wish to drop in (similar to how a presenter would stand by their poster during an in person workshop).
Room #13 04:30 – 04:35 Google Meet	Evaluation of Arctic Sea ice in a UFS-based System Yanyun Liu 1,2 , Weiyu Yang 1,2 , Wanqiu Wang 1 , Arun Kumar 1 , and David DeWitt 1 (1) NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, (2) Innovim LLC
Room #13 04:35 – 04:40 Google Meet	Developing seasonal forecasting capability to support on-ice operations at Liberty site, Alaska Peter Bieniek , Meibing Jin, Andrew Mahoney, Hajo Eichen, Josh Jones
Room #14 04:45 – 04:50 Google Meet	User-relevant freshwater supply prediction of the California's rivers Guan, X. and Bhogaonker, K., Kinsella, B., Were, V., and Pal, I.
Room #14 04:50 – 04:55 Google Meet	National Water Model for Drought Monitor: A Preliminary Evaluation Li Xu 1, 2 Muthuval Chelliah 1 and Hailan Wang 1 (1) Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP (2) Innovim LLC.
Room #15 05:00 – 05:05 Google Meet	The Projection of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transitions Using Integrated Enstrophy in the Northern Hemisphere Emily M. Klaus 1,2 , Anthony R. Lupo 2 , Michael J. Bodner 3 , and Joshua S. Kastman 3,4 , Patrick S. Market 2 (1) NOAA, National Weather Service, Pleasant Hill, MO WFO (2) School of Natural Resources, Atmospheric Science Program, University of Missouri, Columbia, (3) NOAA Weather Prediction Center (4) Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder
Room #15 05:05 – 05:10 Google Meet	Recent advancements in forecasting and observations of extreme heat in the US at the Climate Prediction Center Evan M Oswald, Innovim, and Jon Gottschalck, NOAA CPC
Room #16 05:15 – 05:20 Google Meet	Second Generation CMORPH Satellite Precipitation Estimates: Real-Time Production Pingping Xie, Robert Joyce, Shaorong Wu, and Bert Katz, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Room #16 05:20 – 05:25 Google Meet	Time-Space Characterization of Precipitation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin for Projecting Riverbank Erosion in the Bangladesh Outlet Muna Khatiwada, Scott Curtis, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, East Carolina University
Room #17 05:30 – 05:35 Google Meet	The influence of subsurface conditions on the spatial and temporal variability of SST and rainfall over the global tropics in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014) reforecasts Ravi P. Shukla, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), George Mason University
Room #17 05:35 – 05:40 Google Meet	Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Zachary F. Johnson, Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University
Room #18 05:45 – 05:50 Google Meet	Roles of TAO/TRITON and Argo in tropical Pacific observing system:An OSSE study for multiple time scale variability Jieshun Zhu 1,2, Stylianos Flampouris 3*, Guillaume Vernieres 4, Arun Kumar 1, Avichal Mehra 5, Meghan Cronin 6, Dongxiao Zhang 7, Samantha Wills 7, Travis Sluka 4, Jiande Wang 3, Wanqiu Wang 1 (1) NOAA Climate Prediction Center (2) Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland (3) IMSG at EMC (4) NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (5) NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, (6) NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (7) Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington

Poster Session 4: Thursday, October 22, 2020 11:00AM – 12:30 PM
Each poster presenter has a 5min time slot to summarize their work and should remain in their room for the entire 1.5hr session for additional discussion among meeting attendees who wish to drop in (similar to how a presenter would stand by their poster during an in person workshop).
Room #19 11:00 – 11:05 Google Meet	Predictability of Subseasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States Melanie Schroers, University of Oklahoma
Room #19 11:05 – 11:10 Google Meet	Climatological influence of Land and Atmospheric Initial conditions on North America and Eurasia surface temperature and circulation in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014) reforecasts Ravi P. Shukla, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), George Mason University
Room #20 11:15 – 11:20 Google Meet	Monitoring of Global Sea-Surface Salinity through Combined Use of Satellite Observations and In Situ Measurements Li Ren 1,2, Pinging Xie 1 , Arun Kumar 1, Tim Boyer 3, and Eric Bayler 4 (1) NOAA/NCEP /Climate Prediction Center (2) INNOVIM, LLC (3) NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI (4) NOAA/ NESDIS/STAR
Room #20 11:20 – 11:25 Google Meet	Soil CO2 emission response to the main limiting factors changes during the snow-free period in Central Siberia Anastasia Makhnykina 1, 2 , Anatoly Prokushkin 1, 2, Eugene Vaganov 1; (1) Laboratory of ecosystem biogeochemistry, Institute of ecology and geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, (2) Laboratory of biogeochemical cycles in the forest ecosystems, V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest
Room #21 11:30 – 11:35 Google Meet	Connecting Agriculture Stress Index Systems at the Sub-National Level to the Next Generation of Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A General Approach to Transition from Monitoring to Forecasting Diego Pons 1, Ángel G. Muñoz 1, Lena Schubmann 2, Oscar Rojas 3, Tufa Dinku 1, Carmen González Romero 1, Amanda Grossi 1, Martin Leal 4 (1) International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) (2) World Food Program Country Office Guatemala (3) Food and Agriculture Organization FAO (4) Climate Change Unit. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and food
Room #21 11:35 – 11:40 Google Meet	Value Added Seasonal Forecasts for Food Security Applications in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin Muhammad Rezaul Haider , Malaquias Peña, University of Connecticut
Room #22 11:45 – 11:50 Google Meet	Ensemble Subsampling to Improve Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks Cory Baggett, Emerson LaJoie, Daniel Collins, Daniel Harnos, Muthu Chelliah, Kyle MacRitchie, Evan Oswald, Stephen Baxter, and Michael Halpert
Room #22 11:50 – 11:55 Google Meet	Skillful Week 3-4 Prediction of Extreme Heat over the United States in Boreal Summer Douglas E. Miller, Zhuo Wang, Bo Li, Dan Harnos, and Trent Ford
Room #23 12:00 – 12:05 Google Meet	Climate predictability on seasonal over South America from NMME models through ANOVA Luciano Andrian 1,2 Marisol Osman 1,2 and Carolina Vera 1,2 (1) Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires (2) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Instituto Franco-Argentino del Clima y sus Impactos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Room #23 12:05 – 12:10 Google Meet	On the Next Generation (NextGen) Seasonal Prediction System for Bangladesh Nachiketa Acharya 1, Simon J. Mason 1, S. M. Q. Hassan 2, and Ángel G. Muñoz 1 (1) International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia Univ. (2) Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Room #24 12:15 – 12:20 Google Meet	Observed Long-Term Changes in Atlantic Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes Hui Wang , NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Room #24 12:20 – 12:25 Google Meet	Spatial variability in tropical cyclone climatology along the southeastern Atlantic coastline of the United States Lee Lindner , W. Holden, and A. Neuhauser, College of Charleston