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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niņa Advisory      


            La Niņa is expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.  


La Niņa continued during January 2009, as evidenced by below-average equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The January values of the Niņo-4, Niņo-3.4, and Niņo-3 SST indices were cooler than −0.5°C (Table T2).  Negative subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also persisted east of the International Date Line, but weakened as positive subsurface temperature anomalies from the western Pacific expanded eastward into the central Pacific (Fig. T17).  Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia (Fig. T25).  Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also continued across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. T20 and T21).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect La Niņa.

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niņo-3.4 region indicate a gradual weakening of La Niņa through February-April 2009, with an eventual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (Figs. F1-F13).  Therefore, based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niņa is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: February 2009
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