Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics

 

About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13


ENSO-CLIPER Model Forecasts for Nino Regions & SOI

John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Fort Collins, CO.

JANUARY 2009

FIGURE F12.  ENSO-CLIPER statistical model forecasts of three-month average sea surface temperature anomalies (green lines, deg. C) in (top panel) the Nino 4 region (5N-5S, 160E-150W), (second panel) the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W), (third panel) the Nino 3 region (5N-5S, 150W-90W), and (fourth panel) the Nino 1+2 region (0-10S, 90W-80W) (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633-652). Bottom panel shows predictions of the three-month standardized Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, green line). Horizontal bars on green line indicate the adjusted root mean square error (RMSE). The Observed three-month average values are indicated by the thick blue line. SST anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 base period means, and the SOI is calculated from the 1951-1980 base period means.


NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: February 2009
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities