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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EST Thu Mar 16 2023 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2023
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. For January through February 2023, rainfall total accumulations were: - Lihue Airport 13.72 inches (214 percent of normal) - Honolulu Airport 3.59 inches (95 percent of normal) - Kahului Airport 5.82 inches (132 percent of normal) - Hilo Airport 40.01 inches (221 percent of normal) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through April 2023. This supports likely above normal temperatures over the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation are also favored for the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023, supported by most dynamical and statistical models. | | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
Hilo | A50 | 72.6 | 0.7 | | A50 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 11.2 |
Kahului | A60 | 74.1 | 0.6 | | A50 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Honolulu | A70 | 76.3 | 0.5 | | A50 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Lihue | A70 | 74.0 | 0.6 | | A50 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2023 - AMJ 2024 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La NiƱa has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are observed across the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the central Pacific Ocean and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the last four weeks. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward, remaining mostly at depth, except near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but weak anomalies continue to reside near the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident in a small area over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023 following dynamical and statistical model forecasts and the official ENSO outlook. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from April-May-June 2023 through Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and statistical forecasts. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures is indicated for Hawaii beginning in October-November-December 2023 and extending through longer leads. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from May-June-July to Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in October-November-December through longer leads. | Hilo |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2023 | A40 | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
MJJ 2023 | A40 | 74.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
JJA 2023 | A40 | 75.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
JAS 2023 | A40 | 76.1 | 0.4 | B50 | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
ASO 2023 | A40 | 76.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
SON 2023 | A40 | 76.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
OND 2023 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
NDJ 2023 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
DJF 2024 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
JFM 2024 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
FMA 2024 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
MAM 2024 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
AMJ 2024 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
Kahului |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2023 | A40 | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
MJJ 2023 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.5 | B40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
JJA 2023 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
JAS 2023 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
ASO 2023 | A40 | 79.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
SON 2023 | A40 | 79.1 | 0.4 | B40 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
OND 2023 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
NDJ 2023 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
DJF 2024 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
JFM 2024 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
FMA 2024 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
MAM 2024 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
AMJ 2024 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
Honolulu |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2023 | A50 | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
MJJ 2023 | A40 | 78.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
JJA 2023 | A40 | 79.9 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
JAS 2023 | A40 | 81.3 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
ASO 2023 | A40 | 81.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
SON 2023 | A40 | 81.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
OND 2023 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
NDJ 2023 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
DJF 2024 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
JFM 2024 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
FMA 2024 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
MAM 2024 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
AMJ 2024 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Lihue |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2023 | A50 | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
MJJ 2023 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.5 | B40 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
JJA 2023 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
JAS 2023 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.3 | B40 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
ASO 2023 | A40 | 79.4 | 0.3 | B40 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
SON 2023 | A40 | 79.1 | 0.3 | B40 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
OND 2023 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
NDJ 2023 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
DJF 2024 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
JFM 2024 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
FMA 2024 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
MAM 2024 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
AMJ 2024 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Apr 20, 2023. | $$
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