Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2025 
 
The July 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks are primarily based on a 
combination of dynamical model guidance [both Week 3-4 and integrated monthly 
(North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Copernicus multi-model ensemble 
system (C3S))], statistical forecast guidance, and current surface conditions. 
Although there has been considerable coherent subseasonal tropical variability 
in the form of atmospheric Kelvin wave activity, the Madden-Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) has weakened substantially from its state in late May and early June. 
Moreover, forecasts of the MJO over the next few weeks do not predict any 
clear, reliable strengthening of the signal and so the MJO does not play a role 
in preparation of the July outlooks. Current land surface states such as 
anomalous soil moisture did contribute considerably to the outlooks for the 
upcoming month. 
 
The temperature outlook favors above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the 
western half of the contiguous U.S. as well as eastward across the northern 
Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Above-normal 
temperatures are also favored along the Gulf coast, including all of Florida, 
and for Southeast Alaska. Probabilities are greatest for the western U.S. where 
warmer than normal conditions are overwhelmingly favored by both dynamical and 
statistical model guidance, long-term positive temperature trends , and drier 
than normal surface conditions in many areas. The odds for above-normal 
temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S. from the Plains to the 
Northeast are lower due to somewhat less agreement in model guidance and 
varying surface conditions. 
 
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and some forecast tools 
favor a slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures for the Gulf coast and 
Florida. 
 
Ocean surface temperatures and potential weak ridging in dynamical model 
guidance elevates odds slightly for warmer than normal temperatures in 
proximity to Southeast Alaska. Alternatively, forecast troughing during the 
first half of July and cooler than normal SSTs in the Bering Sea favors an area 
of below-normal temperatures for a small region in Southwest Mainland Alaska. 
 
A large area of quite wetter than normal surface conditions from frequent and 
heavy precipitation events this late winter and spring were observed from the 
south-central Plains eastward to the Atlantic seaboard. This is likely to 
offset, to some degree, periods of warmer than normal conditions during July 
and interject considerable uncertainty for the eventual July monthly mean 
temperatures. So a forecast for "Equal-Chances" (EC) of either of the three 
categories is forecast from the Plains eastward across the mid-South, Tennessee 
Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Carolinas. 
 
For precipitation, both dynamical and statistical model guidance, long-term 
negative precipitation trends , in some areas, and drier than normal surface 
conditions support elevated odds for below-normal July monthly total 
precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and the 
northern and central Plains. The most likely area for drier than normal 
conditions is for parts of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. 
 
Forecast troughing during the first half of July centered in the Bering Sea 
supports elevated odds for above-normal precipitation for much of western 
Mainland Alaska. The majority of NMME and C3S monthly precipitation forecasts 
are consistent with this wet signal. 
 
Long-term positive precipitation trends  and NMME and C3S monthly dynamical 
model guidance favor above-normal precipitation for the Southeast, Ohio Valley, 
mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast. Probabilities are modest overall for 
this region. 
 
Large variability from both dynamical and statistical model guidance and quite 
unusual late Spring temperature and precipitation conditions, makes the 
forecast for the Southwest monsoon region highly uncertain. Given this, the 
most appropriate forecast in this area for July 2025 is EC as either of the 
three categories are equally likely given the above information at this point 
in mid-June. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Jul will be issued on Mon June 30 2025 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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