Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2025 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies about +0.5 to +2.0 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 5.21 inches (90 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 10.84 inches (283 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 4.05 inches (167 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport8.59 inches (109 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) favor positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in March 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for March, 2025. 
 
For the March 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and C3S predict above normal precipitation across all of the Hawaiian Islands. The impact of a La Niña would also favor above normal precipitation in March (see further discussion of La Niña below). Weak probabilities favoring above normal precipitation are indicated in the March precipitation outlook, supported by most dynamical model forecasts and potential La Niña forcing. 
 
 
 





 
TEMPERATURE
 
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
Hilo 
 
A50
 
72.0
 
0.6
 
A40
 
5.7
 
10.8
 
15.2
 
Kahului 
 
A50
 
72.9
 
0.5
 
A40
 
1.4
 
1.9
 
2.9
 
Honolulu
 
A50
 
74.7
 
0.5
 
A40
 
0.6
 
0.8
 
1.9
 
Lihue 
 
A50
 
72.7
 
0.6
 
A40
 
1.9
 
2.6
 
3.6
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2025 - MAM 2026 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Niña conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average in the far western Pacific Ocean and in most of the Atlantic Ocean. Below-average SSTs were evident in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean and in parts of the west-central Indian Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Above-average subsurface temperatures prevailed in the far western Pacific and at depth west of the Date Line. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Most recent dynamical and statistical models predict La Niña conditions to persist through February-April 2025, with a transition to ENSO-neutral (greater than 66% probability) likely during March-May 2025. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo for MAM (March-April-May) through July-August-September (JAS) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends  and the potential impacts of a weak La Niña. Due to increasing uncertainty in the state of ENSO and weakening signals  in forecast guidance at longer leads, Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in ASO (August-September-October) 2025 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from MAM to MJJ (May-Jun-Jul) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well as canonical impacts of La Niña. Dynamical model forecasts of positive SST anomalies surrounding the Hawaiian Islands also support forecasts of above normal precipitation. Due to weaker signals  in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models and increasing uncertainty in ENSO forcing, EC is indicated for equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for all of Hawaii beginning in JJA (June-July-August) 2025 and extending through longer leads.
 
 
















 
Hilo
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
MAM 2025
 
A70
 
72.0
 
0.5 
 
A45
 
22.5
 
28.4
 
34.0
 
AMJ 2025
 
A70
 
72.9
 
0.5 
 
A45
 
21.4
 
23.7
 
29.0
 
MJJ 2025
 
A60
 
74.0
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
20.2
 
27.5
 
29.1
 
JJA 2025
 
A50
 
75.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
19.4
 
27.2
 
31.4
 
JAS 2025
 
A50
 
76.1
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
25.2
 
28.6
 
33.4
 
ASO 2025
 
 EC
 
76.4
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
26.1
 
28.8
 
33.3
 
SON 2025
 
 EC
 
76.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
24.3
 
30.2
 
40.8
 
OND 2025
 
 EC
 
75.5
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
28.3
 
34.5
 
42.0
 
NDJ 2025
 
 EC
 
74.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
26.4
 
36.6
 
43.0
 
DJF 2026
 
 EC
 
72.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
19.6
 
30.2
 
33.3
 
JFM 2026
 
 EC
 
71.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
22.0
 
32.0
 
44.5
 
FMA 2026
 
 EC
 
71.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
24.6
 
34.1
 
45.5
 
MAM 2026
 
 EC
 
72.0
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
22.5
 
28.4
 
34.0
 

















 
Kahului
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
MAM 2025
 
A70
 
73.0
 
0.4 
 
A45
 
2.5 
 
3.5 
 
4.6 
 
AMJ 2025
 
A70
 
74.3
 
0.5 
 
A45
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
2.2 
 
MJJ 2025
 
A65
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
A40
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.8 
 
JJA 2025
 
A50
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.5 
 
JAS 2025
 
A50
 
79.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.8 
 
1.1 
 
1.6 
 
ASO 2025
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.8 
 
1.6 
 
2.5 
 
SON 2025
 
 EC
 
79.1
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.1 
 
3.3 
 
4.8 
 
OND 2025
 
 EC
 
77.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.2 
 
5.3 
 
8.1 
 
NDJ 2025
 
 EC
 
75.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
5.2 
 
7.6 
 
9.5 
 
DJF 2026
 
 EC
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.6 
 
6.9 
 
8.7 
 
JFM 2026
 
 EC
 
72.5
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.2 
 
6.2 
 
8.2 
 
FMA 2026
 
 EC
 
72.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
3.2 
 
4.1 
 
6.4 
 
MAM 2026
 
 EC
 
73.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.5 
 
3.5 
 
4.6 
 

















 
Honolulu
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
MAM 2025
 
A70
 
74.8
 
0.4 
 
A45
 
1.8 
 
2.6 
 
3.0 
 
AMJ 2025
 
A70
 
76.3
 
0.4 
 
A45
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
1.8 
 
MJJ 2025
 
A65
 
78.2
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
0.8 
 
1.4 
 
1.6 
 
JJA 2025
 
A50
 
79.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.7 
 
0.8 
 
1.3 
 
JAS 2025
 
A50
 
81.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.0 
 
1.4 
 
1.7 
 
ASO 2025
 
 EC
 
81.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.6 
 
2.4 
 
3.1 
 
SON 2025
 
 EC
 
81.4
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.5 
 
4.0 
 
5.6 
 
OND 2025
 
 EC
 
80.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.4 
 
6.4 
 
8.5 
 
NDJ 2025
 
 EC
 
77.7
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
3.9 
 
5.6 
 
8.8 
 
DJF 2026
 
 EC
 
75.3
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
3.7 
 
5.6 
 
8.6 
 
JFM 2026
 
 EC
 
73.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.1 
 
4.6 
 
7.8 
 
FMA 2026
 
 EC
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.9 
 
3.2 
 
4.7 
 
MAM 2026
 
 EC
 
74.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.8 
 
2.6 
 
3.0 
 

















 
Lihue
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
MAM 2025
 
A70
 
72.8
 
0.5 
 
A45
 
5.3 
 
6.6 
 
8.0 
 
AMJ 2025
 
A70
 
74.2
 
0.5 
 
A45
 
4.7 
 
5.5 
 
6.0 
 
MJJ 2025
 
A65
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
A40
 
4.9 
 
5.4 
 
5.9 
 
JJA 2025
 
A50
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.4 
 
5.3 
 
6.9 
 
JAS 2025
 
A50
 
79.0
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
5.3 
 
6.1 
 
7.8 
 
ASO 2025
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
6.2 
 
7.9 
 
8.4 
 
SON 2025
 
 EC
 
79.1
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
9.2 
 
10.0
 
11.2
 
OND 2025
 
 EC
 
77.8
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
9.2 
 
11.7
 
15.6
 
NDJ 2025
 
 EC
 
75.7
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
8.6 
 
12.1
 
16.9
 
DJF 2026
 
 EC
 
73.6
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
7.5 
 
8.4 
 
14.0
 
JFM 2026
 
 EC
 
72.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
6.5 
 
8.8 
 
13.8
 
FMA 2026
 
 EC
 
72.1
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.8 
 
8.4 
 
9.9 
 
MAM 2026
 
 EC
 
72.8
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.3 
 
6.6 
 
8.0 
 

FORECASTER: Luke He 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Mar 20, 2025.
 
 
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