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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2025
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies about or greater than +0.5 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week.
From January through December 2024, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 28.10 inches (78 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 10.84 inches (66 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 11.70 inches (72 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 99.86 inches (83 percent of average)
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) favor positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in February 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for February with lower probabilities indicated for the southeastern islands of Maui (Kahului) and Hawaii (Hilo), based on model forecasts.
For the February 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and C3S predict above normal precipitation across all of the Hawaiian Islands. The impact of a La Niña would also favor above normal precipitation in February (see further discussion of La Niña below), although the forecast of La Niña is uncertain. Weak probabilities favoring above normal precipitation are indicated in the February precipitation outlook, supported by most dynamical model forecasts and potential La Niña forcing. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A40 | 71.4 | 0.5 | | A40 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| Kahului | A40 | 71.9 | 0.6 | | A40 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Honolulu | A45 | 73.3 | 0.5 | | A40 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Lihue | A50 | 71.7 | 0.6 | | A45 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2025 - FMA 2026 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average in the far western Pacific Ocean. Below average SSTs were evident in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean, with near-average SSTs observed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Below-average subsurface temperatures have expanded to the central Pacific Ocean, while above-average
subsurface temperatures prevail in the far western Pacific and at depth near the Date Line. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly from the western to central equatorial Pacific Ocean and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and
precipitation was observed around the Date Line, while enhanced convection and
precipitation was evident over parts of Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the Philippines. Most recent dynamical and statistical models predict La Nina conditions with a 59% probability to persist through February-April 2025, with a transition to ENSO-neutral (greater than 50% probability) likely during March-May 2025.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo for FMA (February-March-April) through June-July-August (JJA) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends and the potential impacts of a weak La Niña through winter. Probabilities for above normal temperatures are greater for northwestern islands of Hawaii, exceeding 60 percent in early seasons, following guidance from the NMME. Due to increasing uncertainty in the state of ENSO and weakening signals in forecast guidance at longer leads, Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JAS (July-August-September) 2025 and extending through longer leads.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from FMA to MJJ (May-Jun-Jul) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well as canonical impacts of La Niña. Dynamical model forecasts of positive SST anomalies surrounding the Hawaiian Islands also support forecasts of above normal precipitation. The consolidation of statistical models, including Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), Constructed Analog (CA) and a combined ENSO and decadal trend forecast using Optimum Climate Normals (ENSO-OCN), supports the forecast of above normal precipitation through three overlapping seasons. Due to weaker signals in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models and increasing uncertainty in ENSO forcing, EC is indicated for equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for all of Hawaii beginning in JJA 2025 and extending through longer leads. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2025 | A50 | 71.7 | 0.4 | A50 | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2025 | A50 | 72.0 | 0.5 | A50 | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A50 | 72.9 | 0.5 | A45 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 74.0 | 0.4 | A40 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2025 | A45 | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2025 | A60 | 72.3 | 0.4 | A55 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2025 | A55 | 73.0 | 0.4 | A55 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2025 | A55 | 74.3 | 0.5 | A45 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 76.0 | 0.5 | A45 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2025 | A45 | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2025 | A60 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A55 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2025 | A60 | 74.8 | 0.4 | A55 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A55 | 76.3 | 0.4 | A45 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2025 | A45 | 78.2 | 0.4 | A45 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2025 | A45 | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2025 | A60 | 72.1 | 0.5 | A60 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2025 | A60 | 72.8 | 0.5 | A55 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | A60 | 74.2 | 0.5 | A50 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | A50 | 76.0 | 0.5 | A45 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2025 | A50 | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2025 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2025 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2026 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Feb 20, 2025. |
$$ |
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