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HOME> Outreach > Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

NOAA's 46th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

Virtual Workshop
26–28 October 2021

Oral session program

Skip to day: Tuesday, Oct. 26 | Wednesday, Oct. 27 | Thursday, Oct. 28

Tuesday, October 26, 2021 1:00 – 4:10 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
12:45 – 1:00 pm Welcoming remarks
Session 1 – S2S Precipitation Prediction (Part I)
1:00 – 1:20 pm A unified moisture mode theory for the MJO and the BSISO
Adam Sobel (Invited), IRI/Columbia University
1:20 – 1:40 pm Do Models Generate Realistic Simulations of the North Atlantic SST?
Tim DelSole (Invited), COLA/George Mason University
1:40 – 2:00 pm Preconditions for Extreme Wet Winters over the Contiguous United States
Andy Hoell, Martin Hoerling, Jon Eischeid, Joseph Barsugli, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
2:00 – 2:20 pm The impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme winter weather over the United States
Stephen Foskey and Naoko Sakaeda, University of Oklahoma
2:20 – 2:40 pm Prediction challenges associated with errors in linear trends of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature
Michelle L'Heureux (1), Michael Tippett (2), and Wanqiu Wang (1), (1) CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, (2) IRI/Columbia University
2:40 – 2:50 pm Break
Session 2 – S2S Precipitation Prediction (Part II)
2:50 – 3:10 pm Skillful long-lead prediction of summertime heavy rainfall in the US Midwest from ocean salinity
Laifang Li (1), Raymond W. Schmitt (2), and Caroline C. Ummenhofer (2), (1) Pennsylvania State University, (2) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
3:10 – 3:30 pm The Effect of Soil Moisture in an Empirical Dynamical Model on Weeks 3-4 Temperature Forecasts over North America
Sam Lillo, Matthew Newman, and John Albers, CIRES / NOAA PSL
3:30 – 3:50 pm Evaluating the Potential of Incorporating a Blocking Predictor to Improve Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
Cory Baggett (1), Laura Ciasto (2), Emerson LaJoie (2), Daniel Collins (2), Muthu Chelliah (2), Gregory Jennrich (1), Daniel Harnos (2), Evan Oswald (1), Jon Gottschalck (2), and Michael Halpert (2), (1) Innovim, LLC / NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (2) NOAA Climate Prediction Center
3:50 – 4:10 pm Examining the Utility of Random Forests to Forecast Subseasonal Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States
Ty Dickinson, Jason Furtado, and Michael Richman, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology
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Wednesday, October 27, 2021 1:00 – 4:10 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
Session 3 – Extremes and Extreme Events (Part I)
1:00 – 1:20 pm An overview of land-atmosphere feedbacks as a source of predictability on S2S timescales
Paul Dirmeyer (Invited), COLA / George Mason University
1:20 – 1:40 pm Towards a global seasonal forecast system for marine heatwaves
Mike Jacox (Invited), NOAA / National Marine Fisheries Service
1:40 – 2:00 pm Concurrence of long duration marine heatwaves in the Northeastern Pacific and the U.S. hydroclimatic extremes
Fan Wu, Laifang Li, Pengfei Zhang, and Yifei Fan, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University,
2:00 – 2:20 pm Was the February 2021 cold air outbreak over the central U.S. a subseasonal forecast of opportunity?
John Albers, Matthew Newman, Sam Lillo, Melissa Breeden, and Andrew Hoell, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL
2:20 – 2:30 pm Break
Session 4 – Extremes and Extreme Events (Part II)
2:30 – 2:50 pm A predictability comparison of 2018/19 and 2019/20 winter CPC outlooks and model forecasts
Arun Kumar, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Bhaskar Jha and Mingyue Chen, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
2:50 – 3:10 pm The Differing Influence of the Stratosphere on Cold Air Outbreaks in the Great Plains of the United Statess
Oliver Millin and Jason Furtado, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology
3:10 – 3:30 pm Causes and Predictability of the 2020-21 Southwestern U.S. Drought
Hailan Wang, Arun Kumar, Brad Pugh, Mingyue Chen, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center
3:30 – 3:50 pm Predictability of a North American tornado environment index from tropical Pacific SST and the Arctic Oscillation
Mike Tippett, Chiara Lepore, and Michelle L'Heureux, Columbia University and NOAA Climate Prediction Center
3:50 – 4:10 pm Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Northern Hemisphere: Using Statistical-Dynamical Methods to Leverage the Strengths and Mitigate the Weaknesses of CFS Version 2
David Meyer and Tom Murphree, Statistical Solutions LLC and Naval Postgraduate School
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Thursday, October 28, 2021 1:00 – 4:30 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
Session 5 – Applications of Modern Technologies
1:00 – 1:20 pm Deep Learning for Subseasonal Precipitation and Temperature Errors
Maria Molina (Invited), UCAR
1:20 – 1:40 pm A Modernized Geographic Approach to S2S Forecasting
Dan Pisut (Invited), ESRI
1:40 – 2:00 pm Developing a Linear Inverse Model for Improved Model Guidance of CPC's Week 3-4 Temperature Outlooks
Matt Newman, Sam Lillo, John Albers, Hui Wang, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Climate Prediction Center
2:00 – 2:20 pm Ensemble Predictability of Week 3-4 Precipitation and Temperature over the United States via Cluster Analysis of the Large-Scale Circulation
Greg Jennrich (1) , David Straus (2), Muthuvel Chelliah (3), and Cory Baggett (1), (1) Innovim LLC, (2) George Mason University, and (3)NOAA Climate Prediction Center
2:20 – 2:30 pm Break
Session 6 – Development and Use of Climate Data Records
2:30 – 2:50 pm U.S. Climatological Standard Normals: A Utilitarian Workhorse
Mike Palecki (Invited), Imke Durre, and Scott Applequist, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
2:50 – 3:10 pm Retrospective Processing of the Second Generation CMORPH
Pingping Xie (1), R. Joyce (2), S. Wu (1), and B. Katz(2), (1) NOAA Climate Prediction Center and (2) Innovim LLC
3:10 – 3:30 pm Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Seasonal Forecasts Given Updated Climate Normals
Johnna Infanti (1), Dan Collins (1), Andrew Schepen (2), Sarah Strazzo (3), QJ Wang (4), Ginger Zhang (1), (1) NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (2) CSIRO, (3) Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and (4) University of Melbourne
3:30 – 3:50 pm Communicating uncertainty in SST analyses
Caihong Wen, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Michelle L'Heureux, Pingping Xie, Zeng-Zhen Hu and Bert Katz, NOAA Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC
3:50 – 4:10 pm Updating CPC's T2M Observational Verification Dataset and Impact on the Seasonal T2M Skill Scores
Mike Halpert, Dave DeWitt, Jon Gottschalck, and Nick Novella, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
4:10 – 4:30 pm Conference Wrap-up
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