Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 

Outlook: El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024).

 

Discussion:

 

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18) were indicative of a strong El Niño, with anomalies increasing in the central and east-central Pacific in the past month. The monthly Niño index values were +1.2C in Niño-4, +1.6C in Niño-3.4, +2.0C in Niño-3, and +2.5C in Niño-1+2 (Table T2). Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased slightly, associated with the initiation of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which strengthened above-average subsurface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly in the western and central Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21).  Convection/rainfall was enhanced around the International Date Line, extending into the eastern Pacific. Suppressed convection/rainfall strengthened around Indonesia (Fig. T25). The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI remained negative (Figs. T1 & T2). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a growing El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024 (Figs. F1-F12). Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a “strong” El Niño (>= 1.5C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming “historically strong” (>= 2.0C) for the November-January season.  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).