Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Nino 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 

Outlook: ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.

 

Discussion:

 

In April 2025, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) covering most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). Most of the monthly Nino index values were near zero, with the exception of Nino-1+2, which was 0.6C (Table T2). Subsurface temperatures were mostly near average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with above-average subsurface temperatures remaining at depth in the western Pacific (Fig. T17). For the month, low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21). Convection remained suppressed near and west of the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was ENSO-neutral.

The IRI and North American Multi-Model Ensemble anticipate ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025 (Figs. F1-F12). The forecast team also favors ENSO-neutral, especially through the summer, with chances nearing 50% during the autumn. The uncertainty increases at longer time horizons, with a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Nino are under 15%). In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).