The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J.
Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2.
This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate
Prediction Center. The predictions from the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model
(CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et
al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5
and F6. Predictions from the latest
version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27,
2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea
1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig.
F9. Niño 3.4 predictions are
summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction
Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Outlook: El Niño is
anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62%
chance during April-June 2024).
Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across
the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18) were indicative of a strong El
Niño, with anomalies increasing in the central and east-central Pacific in the
past month. The monthly Niño index values were +1.2C in Niño-4, +1.6C in
Niño-3.4, +2.0C in Niño-3, and +2.5C in Niño-1+2 (Table T2). Area-averaged subsurface
temperatures anomalies increased slightly, associated with the initiation of a
downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which strengthened above-average subsurface
temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). Low-level wind
anomalies were westerly in the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind
anomalies were easterly in the western and central Pacific (Figs. T20
& T21). Convection/rainfall was enhanced around the
International Date Line, extending into the eastern Pacific. Suppressed
convection/rainfall strengthened around Indonesia (Fig. T25). The equatorial
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI remained negative (Figs. T1
& T2). Collectively, the coupled
ocean-atmosphere system reflected a growing El Niño.
most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2024 (Figs. F1-F12).
Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a
“strong” El Niño (>= 1.5C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting
through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming
“historically strong” (>= 2.0C) for the November-January season. Stronger El Niño events increase the
likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate
to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature
and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024).
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).