The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.
ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures
(SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The Niño
indices in all of the regions were within ±0.5°C during the month (Table
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
decreased but remained above average, following the passing of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that had raised the
sub-surface temperatures in November (Fig. T17). Also in December, slightly enhanced low-level
trade winds were observed in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while enhanced
upper level westerly winds prevailed in portions of the eastern half of the
basin (Figs. T20, T21). Convection was suppressed in the central
equatorial Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25).
Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect
The majority of models
predict that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will
persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). While current forecast probabilities are
still greatest for ENSO-neutral during summer, there is an increasing chance
for the development of El Niño. The
consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).