The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
continued during December 2012.
Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were positive in the
western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific, and slightly negative in
much of the eastern Pacific (Fig. T18). This SST
anomaly pattern is also reflected in the Niño indices (Table T2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in
the upper 300m of the ocean) in the equatorial Pacific became slightly below
average, with positive sub-surface temperature anomalies west of 165°W and stronger negative anomalies in the
east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T17). Upper- and lower-level
zonal winds were near average across the tropical Pacific, and the Southern
Oscillation Index was slightly negative (Figs. T20 and T21). Also, convection was
suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over western
Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, these
oceanic and atmospheric features indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.
Model predictions favor
near-average SST in the Niño-3.4 region from the Northern Hemisphere winter
2012-13 into summer 2013 (Figs. F1-F13). Because predictions through the April-June
season are known to be less skillful, the forecasts for the summer carry
limited confidence at this time. Thus, it is considered unlikely that an El
Niño or La Niña will develop during the next several months, and ENSO-neutral
is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).