Extratropical Highlights
DECEMBER 2007
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa heights during
December 2007 featured positive anomalies over the central and eastern North
Pacific, the eastern US, and
Scandinavia
, and negative anomalies over western
Canada
and the high latitudes of the
North Atlantic Ocean
(Fig. E9). The anomaly pattern from the
central extratropical
Pacific Ocean
to eastern
North America
is consistent with La Niņa. At 200-hPa the subtropical circulation across
Australasia and the Pacific Ocean was also consistent with La Niņa, with
anticyclonic streamfunction anomalies flanking the region of enhanced convection
over Indonesia and cyclonic streamfunction anomalies flanking the region of
suppressed convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T22).
The main surface temperature
departures during December reflected warmer than average conditions in
Alaska
, the eastern US,
Scandinavia
, and much of northern
Asia
, and isolated areas of below-average temperatures over the western US and
central
Russia
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation anomalies
included above average totals across the northwestern and northeastern US, and
below-average totals over large portions of
Europe
and western
Russia
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
The La Niņa signal was prominent
across the Pacific and
North America
during December. La Niņa is associated with a westward retraction of deep
tropical convection toward
Indonesia
and the eastern
Indian Ocean
, and a complete disappearance of tropical convection from the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).
These conditions result in a westward retraction of deep tropospheric heating,
and hence a westward retraction of the subtropical ridge toward
Indonesia
(Fig. T22). Over the central
equatorial Pacific, the reduction in convective heating contributes to an
increased strength of the mid-Pacific trough.
The strength, structure, and
position of the East Asian jet stream are strongly linked to conditions in the
tropics and subtropics. For example, the jet core coincides with the strongest
north-south height gradient at 200-hPa, which is heavily influenced by the
height anomalies in the subtropics. The jet exit region coincides with the area
of strong diffluence between the subtropical ridge and trough axes. Therefore,
during La Nina the core of the East Asian jet stream is often retracted well
westward toward
Asia
, as was seen during December (Fig. T21)
and the heart of the jet exit region is shifted westward to well west of the
date line.
The downstream circulation
features are retracted westward as well. This includes a shift of the mean ridge
from western
North America
to the central/eastern North Pacific, and a shift of the mean
Hudson Bay
trough to central or even western
North America
(Fig. E9). During December, these conditions
were associated with above-average precipitation over much of the northern tier
of the
US
(Fig. E6), and above-average temperatures in
the southeast (Fig. E1).
b.
North Atlantic
and
Europe
The circulation during December
featured a north-south dipole pattern of 500-hPa height anomalies over the
North Atlantic Ocean
, with below-average heights centered over
Greenland
and above-average heights extending across the middle latitudes (Fig. E9).
A strong blocking ridge was also evident over
Scandinavia
. This pattern was associated with a northward shift of the East Atlantic jet
entrance region over eastern
North America
, which contributed to the above average temperatures in that region. It was
also associated with a split-flow pattern over the eastern
North Atlantic
, with the northern branch of the jet stream affecting
Scandinavia
, and the southern branch affecting central and southern
Europe
.
The enhanced poleward heat transport associated with
the northern branch of the jet stream led to well above-average temperatures
over
Scandinavia
and western
Russia
(Fig. E1). In western
Europe, areas of below-average precipitation generally resulted from a northward
shift in the mean storm track, and from strong anticyclonic curvature within the
southern branch of the flow. In eastern Europe and western
Russia
, well below-average precipitation resulted from
anomalous upper-level convergence and descending motion downstream of the
blocking ridge.
2.
Southern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height field during December featured negative anomalies centered over
Antarctica
and positive anomalies spanning the middle latitudes (Fig. E15).
In the subtropics, the pattern of negative (anticyclonic) 200-hPa streamfunction
anomalies over the central
Indian Ocean
and positive (cyclonic) streamfunction anomalies over the central Pacific was
consistent with La Niņa.
The South African rainy season extends from October to
April, and is often stronger than average during La Niņa. During December, well
above-average totals covered much of the monsoon region (Fig. E3),
and departures in many areas exceeded the 90th percentile of
occurrences. Area-averaged totals for the entire monsoon region were the largest
since 1979, and were above average for the third straight month (Fig. E4).
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