Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral.

 

Discussion:

 

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the past month (Fig. T18).  All of the monthly Niño index values were near -0.9C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was at -1.4C (Table T2). In November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened (Fig. T17), reflecting an eastward expansion of the above-average subsurface temperatures in the western and central Pacific and contraction of the below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific (Fig. T17). Lower-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific throughout the month (Figs. T20 & T21).  The convection pattern continued to show suppressed convection over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced convection over Indonesia (Fig. T25). Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume indicates that La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23.  For the dynamical model averages, ENSO-neutral is favored in January-March 2023, while the statistical model average shows the transition to ENSO-neutral occurs in February-April 2023 (Figs. F1-F12).  The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is split on whether La Niña or ENSO-neutral will prevail during January-March 2023.  Regardless, there is higher confidence that ENSO-neutral will emerge by the Northern Hemisphere spring.  In summary, La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.  In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).