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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory      


            La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.


During November 2010, the ongoing La Niña was reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The Niño SST index values were between –1.3°C to  –1.6°C for the month (Table T2).  The subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained well below-average in association with a shallower-than-average thermocline across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).  Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).  Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20, T21).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a moderate-to-strong La Niña. 

Consistent with nearly all ENSO forecast models (Figs. F1-F13), La Niña is expected to peak during November-January and to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.  Thereafter, the fate of La Niña is more uncertain.  The majority of forecast models and all of the multi-model combinations (thicker lines) indicate a return to ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.  However, a smaller number of models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, suggest that La Niña could persist into the summer.  Historically, there are more multi-year La Niña episodes than El Niño episodes, but other than support from a few model runs, there is no consensus for a multi-year La Niña at this time.  Consequently, La Niña is anticipated to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring, with no particular outcome favored thereafter.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: December 2010
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