Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.

 

Discussion:  

 

La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the October value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.7°C (Table T2). The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October, reflecting below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. T17). Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25). The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line (Fig. T20), and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line (Fig. T21). Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions. 

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter (Figs. F1-F13). Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17.  At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF.  La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).