The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through
Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the
eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). With the exception
of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices
remained negative over the last month, with the October value of the Niño-3.4
index at -0.7°C (Table T2). The upper-ocean heat content also
remained below average during October, reflecting below-average temperatures at
depth (Fig. T17). Convection was suppressed over the
central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25). The lower-level
easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date
Line (Fig. T20), and anomalously westerly
upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line (Fig. T21).
Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña
multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index
less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter (Figs. F1-F13). Given the current atmospheric
and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus
favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February
(DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the
consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond
DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55%
chance) through winter 2016-17
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).