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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

OCTOBER 2010

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory      

Outlook:  

            La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

Discussion:    

La Niña continued during October 2010, as indicated by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The Niño SST index values were between –1.3°C and  –1.9°C for the month (Table T2).  The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) changed little during October, and remained well below-average in association with a shallower-than-average thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T17).  Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).  This pattern was linked to a continuation of enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20, T21). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the ongoing La Niña. 

Consistent with nearly all ENSO forecast models (Figs. F1-F13), La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.  A large majority of models also predict La Niña to become a strong episode (defined by a 3-month average Niño-3.4 index of –1.5°C or colder) by the November-January season before gradually weakening.  A few of the models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest that La Niña could persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.  However, no particular outcome is favored beyond the Northern Hemisphere spring due to large model disagreement and lower model skill during the period. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).