Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 

Outlook: El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).

 

Discussion:

 

In September, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average (Fig. T18), though positive anomalies weakened in the eastern Pacific. All of the monthly Niño index values remained in excess of +1.0C: Niño-4 was +1.1C, Niño-3.4 was +1.5C, Niño-3 was +2.1C, and Niño1+2 was +2.8C (Table T2). Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased, but remained above-average, consistent with elevated subsurface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17). Tropical atmospheric anomalies were consistent with El Niño. In areas of the central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly (Figs. T20 & T21).  Convection was enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was suppressed near Indonesia (Fig. T25). The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative (Figs. T1 & T2). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024 (Figs. F1-F12). Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (>=1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4). There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average >=2.0C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally. Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons. In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).