|
Extratropical Highlights
SEPTEMBER 2008
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
pattern during September 2008 featured positive anomalies from northeastern
Canada
to Scandinavia, and over the high latitudes of the central North Pacific, and
negative anomalies across southern
Europe
(Fig. E9). During September, surface
temperatures were above average in much of eastern North America, western
Scandinavia, and the Middle East, and below-average in the south-central
U.S.
(Fig. E1). Rainfall was above average
in the central and eastern
U.S.
and
Gulf
Coast
, and portions of southeastern Europe, and below average in
Alaska
, western
Canada
, Scandinavia, and northeastern
Europe
(Fig. E3)
a. North Pacific/
North America
The mean 500-hPa
circulation during September featured a fairly non-descript pattern of
above-average heights over eastern
Canada
. However, there was significant variability during the month in response to
three
U.S.
landfalling hurricanes, which
included Major Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna in South Carolina,
and Major Hurricane Ike in Texas. These combined systems contributed to
above-average precipitation in the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and eastern U.S.
Additionally, the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states experienced many days of
heavy precipitation in association with a strong extratropical storm.
b.
Europe
The 500-hPa
circulation featured above-average heights across Scandinavia and below-average
heights across southern
Europe
, in association with the positive phase of the NAO (Table E1).
This marks a significant departure from the strong negative NAO pattern that
prevailed during the past five months. Consistent with this change, northern
Europe recorded average to below-average precipitation during September, while
southern
Europe
recorded average to above-average precipitation (Figs. E3,
E4).
2. Southern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height field during September featured an anomalous zonal wave-3
pattern, with above-average heights centered east of New Zealand, east of South
America, and over the central Indian Ocean, and below-average heights over the
high latitudes of the eastern South Pacific, and south of both Africa and
Australia (Fig. E15). No significant
temperature or precipitation anomalies were observed over the SH land masses in
September.
|
|