Tropical Highlights
JULY 2008
Forecast Forum
ENSO-neutral conditions continued
during July 2008, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial
Pacific
Ocean
remained
near-average (Fig.
T18). The
latest monthly SST index was +0.1°C in the Niņo-3.4 region, and -0.3°C in the
Niņo-4 region (Table T2). Across the equatorial Pacific, a deeper than
average thermocline (Fig.
T16)
and above average temperatures (+1°C
to +3°C) at thermocline
depth also reflected the ENSO neutral conditions (Fig. T17).
However,
the atmospheric circulation continued to reflect some aspects of La Niņa, with enhanced
low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds over the western and central tropical Pacific
(Figs.
T20, T21, Table T1). Also, convection remained suppressed
throughout the central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over the eastern
equatorial Pacific. The latter is related to very active tropical cyclone
activities in this region during July (Figs.
T25, E3).
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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