Extratropical Highlights
JULY 2008
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height pattern during July 2008 featured positive anomalies over the
high latitudes of the central North Pacific, eastern
Canada
, and
Greenland
, and negative anomalies over
Alaska
, south-central
Canada
, and the eastern
North Atlantic
(Fig. E9). Over the central
Pacific Ocean
, the subtropical circulation at 200-hPa reflected a lingering La Niņa signal,
with cyclonic anomalies in both hemispheres flanking the suppressed convection
over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T22).
The
main surface temperature departures during July reflected warmer than average
conditions in the southwestern
U.S.
, eastern
Canada
, and portions of
Europe
, and below-average temperatures in
Alaska
and extreme western
Canada
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation
anomalies included above average totals in the
Midwest
and
Gulf
Coast
regions of the
U.S.
(Fig. E5), portions of northern and eastern
Europe
, and eastern
China
, and below-average totals in the Pacific Northwest U.S. (Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
Even
though La Niņa has dissipated, as measured by the Niņo 3.4 SST index, there
remained a complete disappearance of tropical convection from the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).
Impacts from this anomalous convection continued to be reflected in cyclonic
streamfunction anomalies over the central subtropical Pacific of both
hemispheres (Fig. T22).
The
500-hPa height pattern during July featured amplified troughs over
Alaska
and eastern
North America
, and a persistent ridge over the southwestern US. This
overall pattern was associated with a continuation of below-average
precipitation in northern
California
and the
Pacific Northwest
(Fig. E5). In northern
California
many locations have recorded almost no rainfall since late March, which set the
stage for numerous (1781) uncontrolled wildfires that burned over 702,000 acres
during June and early July.
In
contrast the
Midwest
and
Great Lakes
regions of the
U.S.
recorded above-average precipitation during July. Both
regions have seen well above-average precipitation since February (Fig.
E5).
b.
Southeastern China
In
China
, the eastern flank of the normal Asian monsoon ridge at 200-hPa was weaker than
average for the second straight month (Fig.
T22). This pattern has favored well
above-average precipitation, with totals during both June and July in the upper
90th percentile of occurrences.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
field during July featured large areas of above-average heights centered south
of both
New Zealand
and
South Africa
, and below-average heights located over the eastern South Pacific and over the
central
South Atlantic
and
Indian
Oceans
(Fig. E15). In the subtropics, ongoing
positive 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies over the central
Pacific Ocean
indicated an anomalous cyclonic circulation consistent with a lingering La Niņa
signal (Fig. T22).
The main surface
temperature anomalies during July reflected exceptionally warm conditions over
central
South America
, where departures exceeded the 90th percentile of occurrences (Fig.
E1). This region was situated downstream of the
mean upper-level trough, and also experienced anomalous poleward flow at 850-hPa
(Fig. T20). These conditions were
associated with a poleward shift of the mean cold frontal boundary, and with an
anomalous southward incursion of mild air into central
South America
.
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