The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F11. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F12, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two,
with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and
June, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above average sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). However, SST anomalies across most of the
eastern Pacific decreased during the month.
The monthly ENSO indices were +0.8°C in Niño-4 and +0.6°C in Niño-3.4, with smaller departures in the Niño-3
and Niño-1+2 regions (Table T2). Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures
(averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average at the beginning of June, but
returned to near average by end of the month, as anomalously cool waters
expanded at depth (Fig. T17).
Weakly suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while slightly
enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line (Fig. T25). Low-level wind anomalies were near average
over the tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. T20), and upper-level wind anomalies
were westerly over the far eastern Pacific (Fig. T21). The traditional
and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices were slightly negative (Figs. T1,
T2). Overall, oceanic and atmospheric
conditions were consistent with a weakening El Niño.
latest plume of North American Multi-model Ensemble forecasts of the Niño-3.4
index shows a rapid transition toward ENSO-neutral by the late Northern
Hemisphere summer, remaining neutral through fall and winter. Due to model guidance (Figs. F1-F12) and recent observations, the forecast consensus also
favors a transition to ENSO-neutral during the next few months. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is
expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue
through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).