Extratropical Highlights
JUNE 2008
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height pattern during June 2008 featured positive anomalies across
eastern
Siberia
and the high latitudes of the North Pacific,
Greenland
, and southern
Europe
, and negative anomalies over
North America
, northern
Europe
, and
Scandinavia
(Fig. E9). Over the
Pacific Ocean
, the subtropical circulation at 200-hPa continued to reflect La Niņa, with
enhanced mid-Pacific troughs and cyclonic circulation anomalies in both
hemispheres flanking the suppressed convection over the central equatorial
Pacific (Fig. T22).
The
main surface temperature departures during June reflected warmer than average
conditions across the southern and eastern US, eastern Europe and northeastern
Russia
, and below-average temperatures over the north-central US, western
Canada
, and northern
India
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation
anomalies included above average totals in the midwestern
US
, eastern
Canada
, and southeastern
China
, and below-average totals in northern
California
, the
Gulf
Coast
states, the southeastern US, and northeastern
Europe
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
The
La Niņa signal was again prominent across the subtropical
Pacific Ocean
during June. La Niņa is associated with a westward retraction of deep tropical
convection toward
Indonesia
, and with a complete disappearance of tropical convection from the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).
These conditions result in a westward retraction of deep tropospheric heating,
and hence a westward retraction of the 200-hPasubtropical ridge toward
Indonesia
(Fig. T22). Over the central
equatorial Pacific, the reduction in convective heating contributes to an
increased strength of the mid-Pacific trough.
The
strength, structure, and position of the East Asian jet stream are strongly
linked to conditions in the tropics and subtropics. The jet core coincides with
the strongest north-south height gradient at 200-hPa, which is heavily
influenced by the height anomalies in the subtropics. During La Niņa, the core
of the East Asian jet stream is often retracted westward toward
Asia
, (Fig. T21). This relationship is
normally most evident in winter and spring, but was also pronounced in June in
response to the ongoing La Nina-related pattern of tropical convection.
Associated
with these conditions, the 500-hPa heights were above average over the high
latitudes of the eastern North Pacific, and below-average over the north-central
US. This overall pattern was
associated with a continuation of below-average precipitation in northern
California
and the Gulf coast region of the
US
. Both of these areas have recorded significant precipitation deficits during
the past several months. In northern
California
many locations had recorded almost no rainfall since late March, which set the
stage for numerous (1781) uncontrolled wildfires that burned over 702,000 acres
during June and early July.
The
500-hPa circulation over the
United States
also exhibited considerable variability during June. In early June, the
circulation featured a trough in the west and a ridge in the east. This pattern
was associated with a persistent frontal boundary and significant low-level
moisture transport across the
Midwest
. These conditions contributed to a series of major rainfall events and severe
flooding in
Iowa
. Overall, the
Midwest
has recorded well above-average precipitation since February (Fig.
E5).
b.
North Atlantic
and
Europe
The
500-hPa circulation during June featured a north-south dipole pattern of height
anomalies over
Europe
, with below-average heights to the north and above-average heights to the south
(Fig. E9). This pattern mainly contributed to
well above-average temperatures in eastern Europe, with many areas recording
departures in the upper 90th percentile of occurrences (Fig. E1).
b.
Southeastern China
During
June, the eastern flank of the normal Asian monsoon ridge at 200-hPa was weaker
than average in association with a broad trough over eastern
China
(Fig. T22).
This pattern favored an anomalous southward penetration of frontal boundaries
and mid-latitude storms which, in turn, favored enhanced convection and
above-average rainfall over southeastern and eastern
China
.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field during June exhibited a strong zonal symmetry, with
above average heights in the middle latitudes and below average heights over
Antarctica
(Fig. E15). In the subtropics, ongoing
positive 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies over the central
Pacific Ocean
indicated an anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhanced mid-Pacific trough
consistent with La Niņa (Fig. T22).
In southern
Australia
an anomalous 500-hPa trough contributed to anomalously warm and dry conditions
during June (Figs. E1, E3).
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