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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

APRIL 2008

Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


            A transition from La Niņa to ENSO-neutral conditions is possible during June- July 2008.   


La Niņa continued to weaken during April 2008, as reflected by changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean .  Negative SST anomalies in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific have weakened, while positive SST anomalies are confined to parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).  The latest monthly SSTs in the westernmost Niņo-4 and Niņo-3.4 regions are near 1°C below average, while departures in the easternmost Niņo-3 and Niņo-1+2 regions are −0.2°C and 0.4°C respectively (Table T2). 

Positive subsurface ocean temperatures at thermocline depth have continued to increase in central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).  While this increase has resulted in positive heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean), a shallow layer of negative anomalies in the central Pacific continues to persist between the surface and 100m.  Despite these changes, SSTs remain sufficiently cool to maintain the persistent atmospheric anomalies associated with La Niņa.  Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds continued across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific (Fig. T25).  Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an ongoing La Niņa. 

A majority of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niņo 3.4 region indicate La Niņa will persist through May-June-July 2008 (Figs. F1- F13). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with the majority reflecting ENSO-neutral conditions (−0.5 to 0.5 in the Niņo-3.4 region) during the second half of the year.  However, the spread of the models spans the possibility of a return to La Niņa or even an El Niņo by the end of 2008.  Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, a transition from La Niņa to ENSO-neutral conditions is possible during June- July 2008.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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