Forecast Forum
The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J.
Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2.
This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate
Prediction Center. The predictions from the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model
(CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et
al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5
and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al.
2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs.
F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea
1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig.
F9. Niño 3.4 predictions are
summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction
Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
skill.
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña
Watch
Outlook: A transition from
El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the
odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
Discussion:
During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST
anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18), with the monthly
Nino-1+2 value at +0.3C (Table T2).
Monthly SST index values in the other Nino regions were between +0.9C and +1.2C.
Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened,
reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an
upwelling Kelvin wave (Fig. T17). Low-level wind anomalies were
easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind
anomalies were mostly near average (Figs.
T20 & T21). Equatorial convection was slightly
suppressed around the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia (Fig. T25).
Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued
weakening of El Nino.
The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to
ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Nina potentially developing during
late summer 2024 (Figs. F1-F12). The
forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is
slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Nina
tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in
the model guidance favoring La Nina. In summary, a transition from El Nino to
ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Nina
developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
Weekly
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).