Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F11.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F12, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 

Outlook:

 

ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).

 

Discussion:  

 

During February 2020, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across the western, central, and far eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The monthly Niño-3.4, Niño-3, and Niño-1+2 indices were near-to-above average (+0.4°C, +0.2°C, +0.3°C, respectively), with the Niño-4 index warmer, at +1.1°C (Table T2). Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained above average during the month, with positive anomalies spanning the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, from the surface to ~150m depth (Fig. T17).  Also during the month, low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. T20), while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern half of the basin (Fig. T21).  Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line (Fig. T25).  While the equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, the traditional SOI was near average (Table T1 & Fig. T2).  Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere fall (Figs. F1-F12).  Despite elevated Niño 3.4 index values in the near-term, the forecaster consensus expects the Niño-3.4 index values will decrease gradually through the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).