Forecast Forum
The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1
and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System
Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871)
are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F9. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
skill.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Outlook:
La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77%
chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance
during May-July 2022).
Discussion:
Below-average
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies
stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean (Fig. T18).
Most of the monthly ENSO indices remained between -0.9C and -1.4C,
except for the Niño-4 index, which was -0.4C (Table T2). In contrast, subsurface temperatures
(averaged between 180-100W and 0-300m depth) trended to near average during the
month. This large change in recent weeks
reflected the eastward progression of a downwelling
Kelvin wave, as indicated by the extension of above-average subsurface
temperatures across much of the Pacific (Fig.
T17).
Below-average subsurface temperatures were confined to the eastern
Pacific Ocean at the end of the month.
For the monthly mean, low-level equatorial winds were near average
across much of the Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained
over the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig.
T20 & T21).
Below-average convection strengthened near and west of the Date Line,
while convection was near average over Indonesia (Fig. T25). Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system
reflected a weakening La Niña.
The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST
index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern
Hemisphere spring (Figs. F1-F12). Because the easterly trade winds have
recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the
forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña
through the spring. However,
ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer,
although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the
uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern
Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to
ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July).
Weekly
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).