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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F11

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F12


Forecast Forum

JANUARY 2019

EL NINO /SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12.  Niņo 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

Weak El Niņo conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

 

Discussion: 

 

El Niņo conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18) and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.  The monthly Niņo indices remained above average, although decreasing in all regions relative to January (Table T2).  The Niņo-4 region was the warmest, with a value of +0.7°C for January.  Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased in the last couple weeks, in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific (Fig. T17).  Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. T25).   Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific (Figs. T20, T21). The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations; Fig. T2).  Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niņo conditions. 

 

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niņo 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (Figs. F1-F13).  Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave and the forecast of westerly wind anomalies, most forecasters expect SST anomalies in the east-central Pacific to increase slightly in the upcoming month or so.  Because forecasts through the spring tend to be more uncertain and/or less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niņo will persist beyond the spring is 50% or less.  In summary, weak El Niņo conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance). 

 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).        

 


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