Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri March 31 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2023 
 
Today's model solutions continue to be in good agreement on the predicted  
500-hPa circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during  
the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the  
ensemble means from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian model ensembles due to recent  
model skill. The resultant manual blend features anomalous ridging over the  
northwestern and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and anomalous troughing over  
the central CONUS. A highly amplified ridge is predicted over the Bering Sea  
extending eastward to the western Aleutian Islands, while a trough is forecast  
over Mainland Alaska. 
 
Persistent anomalous troughing and negative 500-hPa height anomalies support  
high probabilities for below-normal temperatures over much of the western and  
central CONUS. These probabilities top out in the 80-90% range for parts of  
North and South Dakota. Weaker probabilities extend into the Upper and Middle  
Mississippi Valley regions, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF temperature  
reforecast consolidation tools. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of  
above-normal temperatures are depicted for the southeastern CONUS with  
probabilities exceeding 80% over portions of the Florida Peninsula, and weaker  
probabilities extending northward into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys,  
as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Near to below-normal  
temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft. 
 
Troughing over the central CONUS favors above-normal precipitation for parts of  
the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies  
and Plains. Odds also tilt towards near- to above-normal precipitation for much  
of the eastern CONUS tied to a baroclinic zone across the center of the CONUS.  
Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS,  
resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation for portions of the  
western and north-central CONUS. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska  
is favored by model guidance, resulting in enhanced probabilities for  
above-normal precipitation for much of Mainland Alaska, while below-normal  
precipitation is forecast over the western Aleutians, supported by most  
dynamical precipitation forecast tools.  
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's GFS  
Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to  
model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast  
domain.  
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2023  
 
During week-2, strong anomalous ridging with above normal 500-hPa heights is  
forecast over the Bering Sea extending eastward to the Aleutians and western  
Mainland Alaska, while weak anomalous troughing with below normal 500-hPa  
heights is predicted over eastern Alaska. Anomalous ridging with above normal  
500-hPa heights is also predicted over the western  CONUS. As the forecast  
period progresses, a trough predicted over the central CONUS during the 6-10  
day period gradually weakens and the trough axis shifts into the northeastern  
CONUS.   
 
Guidance from the dynamical models, reforecast tools, and others indicate  
enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures over parts of the Northern and  
Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and most of the central and eastern  
CONUS, except for parts of the Southeast where above-normal temperatures are  
indicated. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of near- to above-normal  
temperatures are favored over the West Coast under predicted anomalous ridging.  
Below-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly  
flow aloft, with the exception of the Alaska Panhandle where near-normal   
temperatures are most likely. 
 
Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS during  
the 8-14 day period, resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation  
over western CONUS extending eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi  
Valley region. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast  
across much of the south-central and eastern CONUS, supported by most of the  
precipitation forecast tools. Continued surface low pressure over the Gulf of  
Alaska is favored by model guidance, resulting in elevated probabilities for  
above-normal precipitation for central and eastern Mainland  Alaska, with  
slightly higher probabilities over the southeastern Mainland. Enhanced chances  
for below normal precipitation are forecast across southwestern Mainland Alaska  
due to increasing northerly mid-level flow, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF  
precipitation reforecast consolidation tools.  
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's GFS  
Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to  
model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast  
domain. 
 
FORECASTER: Luke H 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
April 20. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19820407 - 19750402 - 20030331 - 20020323 - 19550317 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19820407 - 19750401 - 19630312 - 20020325 - 19640324 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Apr 06 - 10 2023 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    B      
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B      
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Apr 08 - 14 2023 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B      
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     N    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
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