Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu June 05 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2025 
 
Today's ensemble mean solutions depict a transitional pattern underway across  
much of the nation as the 6-10 Day period begins. Moderately strong mid-level  
ridging is shifting out of the Northwest and toward the northeastern Contiguous  
States (CONUS) at this time, only to retrograde by the end of the period,  
establishing a ridge over central North America. This is in response to a  
digging mid-level trough pushing toward the northwestern CONUS. This feature is  
considerably stronger than depicted by most models yesterday, with the manual  
500-hPa blend depicting a mean 500-hPa height anomaly near -60 m just off the  
Washington coast (height forecasts were near to slightly above normal  
yesterday). Upstream, a strong mid-level ridge is expected to persist across  
the central North Pacific and Mainland Alaska, with a mean height anomaly  
maximum (near +180 m) just south of the eastern Aleutians. Other changes from  
yesterday include higher 500-hPa heights expected across central Canada, and  
less of a mean mid-level trough between the positive height anomaly centered  
over the north-central CONUS and another in the northwestern North Atlantic.  
However, both the location and strength of these last two features oscillate as  
the central North American mid-level ridge retrogrades, and lack of consensus  
on the details of these transitions increase forecast uncertainty. 
  
Above normal temperatures are favored from the Intermountain West eastward  
across the central and northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast in  
association with mid-level ridging affecting these areas for at least part of  
the 6-10 day period. With a weaker mean mid-level trough over the Great Lakes  
and Ohio Valley, enhanced chances for warmer than normal conditions stretch  
across these areas today, in contrast to yesterday’s forecast. The greatest  
odds for above-normal temperatures (over 60 percent) stretch from the central  
Rockies into the northern Plains, near the maximum positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies. Meanwhile, a preponderance of the temperature tools derived from the  
ensembles somewhat favors above-normal temperatures along the East Coast and  
over most of the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, the mid-level trough digging into or  
just west of the Northwest implies a forecast favoring below-normal  
temperatures along portions of the West Coast, especially the Pacific  
Northwest. This signal is stronger and farther east than depicted yesterday due  
to the stronger-looking mid-level trough encroaching on the region, and the  
downstream above-normal mid-level heights starting the period slightly farther  
east. Across Alaska, there are considerable discrepancies between the raw and  
bias-corrected ensemble temperature output favoring subnormal temperatures over  
most of the state, and the reforecast and calibrated tools showing a much  
warmer solution. Based on the mid-level height pattern and recent trends,  
near-normal temperatures seem most likely across much of the state. Unusually  
warm weather is favored over part of the southwestern Mainland and the  
Aleutians (near the largest positive mean 500-hPa height anomalies) while  
subnormal temperatures seem most likely in west-central sections (upstream from  
the mid-level ridge axis).  Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii  
associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent  
Pacific. 
 
An active pattern is anticipated across much of the CONUS in conjunction with  
mid-level features progressing eastward, then retrograding somewhat. Unusually  
wet weather is favored over a large part of the Northwest, Rockies and  
Intermountain West, Plains, and southeastern CONUS. Low-level flow should bring  
tropical moisture into the south-central and southeastern CONUS. The best odds  
for wetter than normal weather cover the Lower Mississippi Valley and western  
half of the Gulf Coast region, where the general tool consensus places the best  
chances for interaction between the tropical moisture inflow and a weak,  
wavering frontal system. Meanwhile, downstream from the mean mid-level ridge  
position, near- or below-normal precipitation is favored under anticyclonic  
mid-level flow across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Northeast.  
Near-normal precipitation is also favored for much of California and the  
Southwest where this is a climatologically dry time of year. Across Alaska,  
southeastern areas just upstream from the mid-level trough should average drier  
than normal while portions of the western and northern Mainland - north and  
west of the ridge axis - should experience wetter than normal conditions under  
cyclonically-curved mid-level flow. Above normal precipitation is slightly  
favored for Hawaii with a weak trough potentially impacting the state. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 22% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and  
18% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, with decent  
agreement among the tools on the mean mid-level pattern, tempered by less  
consensus in the day-to-day evolution of individual features and areas of  
disagreement among the disparate temperature and precipitation tools derived  
from the ensembles. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2025  
 
The week-2 500-hPa pattern features a less transitional pattern, with the  
mid-level features settling into more stationary positions. There is decent  
agreement on the locations of the main mid-level features. A mid-level ridge  
south of Alaska should persist with a ridge extending northward into the  
Mainland. Downstream, week-2 starts with a strong mid-level trough centered  
near the northwestern CONUS which is expected to slowly weaken over the course  
of the period. The central North American mid-level ridge is expected to move  
little, with maximum 500-hPa anomalies centered over the northern Plains. The  
eastward extent of this mean ridge is uncertain, with the Canadian ensemble  
mean stretching above-normal heights robustly into the northeastern CONUS while  
the GEFS and European ensemble mean keep heights a bit lower in this region,  
though still a little above normal. The majority solution is favored, but the  
solution from the Canadian ensemble mean can’t be discounted. The manual  
500-hPa height blend favored the GEFS and European ensemble mean, but some  
weight was also given to the Canadian ensemble mean.  
 
With above-normal 500-hPa heights forecast for most locations from the Rockies  
eastward, above-normal temperatures continue to be broadly favored. The only  
exceptions are in southwestern Texas (consistent with the consolidation  
forecast) and in the Northeast (closer to lower mid-level heights in  
southeastern Canada). Odds for warmer than normal weather remain above 60  
percent from the central and northern Rockies into portions of the northern  
Plains. Enhanced chances for subnormal temperatures in the CONUS are limited to  
the West Coast region, near the axis of the persistent but weakening 500-hPa  
trough. Upstream, temperature tools are still inconsistent across Alaska, but a  
preponderance of the guidance and the location of mid-level features would  
favor warmer than normal weather slightly in southern and eastern parts of the  
state while below-normal temperatures hang on along the western tier. Increased  
sea surface temperatures and the consolidation forecast both favor warmer than  
normal conditions across Hawaii. 
 
The flow of low-level tropical moisture into the south-central and southeastern  
CONUS is expected to continue through much of week-2. Periodically, this inflow  
is expected to interact with a weak but persistent quasi-stationary frontal  
boundary, keeping enhanced odds for surplus precipitation across these areas,  
as far north as the mid-Atlantic region. Above-normal precipitation is also  
favored from the Northwest into portions of the northern Plains, downstream  
from the moderating mid-level trough along the West Coast. Over the rest of the  
CONUS, the precipitation tools from the ensembles exhibit a lot of uncertainty,  
which is reflected in the near-normal forecasts there. Southeastern Alaska  
remains upstream from the persistent West Coast mid-level trough, resulting in  
anticyclonic mid-level flow that should inhibit precipitation. Farther west,  
upstream from a mid-level ridge axis, cyclonic mid-level flow enhances the odds  
for above-normal precipitation over western and northern Alaska. Enhanced  
above-normal precipitation probabilities persist across Hawaii, consistent with  
the consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the GEFS and the  
European ensemble. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, with good  
agreement on the mean mid-level pattern west of the Appalachians tempered by  
the inherent uncertainty associated with weak surface features, along with  
disparity among the temperature and precipitation tools derived from the  
ensembles. 
 
FORECASTER: Rich Tinker 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 19. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19980612 - 19990530 - 19510617 - 19780616 - 20000616 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19990530 - 19980612 - 20000617 - 19510617 - 19780618 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 11 - 15 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B      
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 13 - 19 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$