Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue July 01 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2025 
 
The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models agree on the overall 500-hPa  
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions, with a variable  
pattern during the 6-10 day period and some differences in the temperature and  
precipitation tools among models. The manual height blend is based on 0Z  
ensemble means, weighing the ECMWF model greater due to recent model anomaly  
correlation skill. The manual blend shows a mid-level trough over southern  
Mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. A trough near the central California  
coast is predicted to deamplify early in the period. A ridge and positive  
500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over most of the remaining contiguous  
United States (CONUS). Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted across  
Hawaii in the manual blend of models. 
 
Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for most of the southern coast  
of Alaska, under a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are slightly  
favored over most of central and northern interior Mainland Alaska, consistent  
with the temperature consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts.  
Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western CONUS, excluding  
parts of the California coast, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near  
normal temperatures are favored for parts of California, under a predicted  
trough early in the period and with increased cloudiness due to the flow of  
moisture into the region. Above normal temperatures are likely over much of the  
eastern CONUS, consistent with the Auto blend of temperature forecast tools.  
The temperature consolidation favors above normal temperatures across most of  
the Hawaiian Islands, excluding the Big Island, associated with above average  
sea surface temperatures in the region. 
 
Above normal precipitation is favored for the central Aleutians, most of  
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, ahead of the predicted trough. Near to  
below normal precipitation is slightly favored for northwestern Mainland  
Alaska, consistent with most model precipitation forecast tools. Above normal  
precipitation is favored for the Southwest, the Great Plains, and the eastern  
CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and  
GEFS forecasts. Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent  
for parts of the Southwest monsoon region with predicted enhanced moisture flow  
into this region. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii,  
consistent with the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface  
temperatures in the region. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, with  
overall agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, offset  
by uncertainty related to a variable height forecast, weak anomalies, and  
differences among temperature and precipitation forecast tools. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2025  
 
ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern  
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement,  
while the pattern evolves. In the manual blend, the predicted trough over  
southern Mainland Alaska deamplifies slightly as some differences appear  
between models. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies expand northward across  
Mainland Alaska in the manual blend. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies expand  
southward into the southwestern CONUS and weaken over the northeastern CONUS in  
week 2. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means predict a weak trough over the  
eastern CONUS, where the GEFS ensemble mean predicts weak positive 500-hPa  
height anomalies. Near average 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii. 
 
Below normal temperatures are favored for most of the southern coast of  
Mainland Alaska and for Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under a  
predicted trough. Below normal temperatures are favored for northern Mainland  
Alaska, under negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are  
likely for the western CONUS and Northern Plains, under a predicted ridge and  
persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal temperatures  
are favored from eastern areas of the Southwest into the Central Plains, with  
enhanced moisture into the region and clouds. Near normal temperatures are  
favored for much of the eastern CONUS, including the Central Mississippi  
Valley, the Midwest, the Tennessee Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic, where  
temperature forecast tools are inconsistent. Above normal temperatures are  
favored for parts of the Northeast, the Gulf Coast region and southeast  
Atlantic coast, consistent with most model temperature tools. Above normal  
temperatures are favored across most of the Hawaiian Islands excluding  
southeastern areas of the Big Island, consistent with the temperature  
consolidation.  
 
Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for most of Mainland Alaska,  
excluding northwestern areas, and for Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted  
trough during the period. Most models and the consolidation favor enhanced  
probabilities for above normal precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest  
in week 2. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Southwest, with  
slightly enhanced monsoonal flow. Above normal precipitation continues to be  
slightly favored for most of the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and  
Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the Atlantic  
Coast, consistent with most precipitation tools and the consolidation. Near  
normal precipitation is favored for parts of southern Florida, consistent with  
the Auto blend of precipitation tools and the consolidation. Above normal  
precipitation is favored across Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the  
precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak  
and conflicting signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many  
areas. 
 
FORECASTER: D Collins 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20060626 - 20070617 - 19940708 - 20050629 - 20080612 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20060625 - 20070616 - 19530619 - 20080611 - 19940710 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 07 - 11 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 09 - 15 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$