Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri June 27 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2025 
 
The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models predict a variable pattern during  
the 6-10 day period, with weaker temperature and precipitation signals and  
increasing differences. However, most models agree on the general 500-hPa  
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions. The manual height  
blend is based on 0Z ensemble means, weighing the ECMWF model greater due to  
recent model anomaly correlation">anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend shows a broad  
mid-level trough over the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea extending into the  
Gulf of Alaska and along the Pacific Coast of North America. A trough and  
slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over California and  
the Southwest in all ensemble means. A ridge and positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies are forecast over the northwestern and north-central contiguous  
United States (CONUS), and a trough with weaker 500-hPa height anomalies are  
predicted over the northeastern CONUS. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are  
predicted across Hawaii in the manual blend of models. 
 
Near normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and southern Mainland  
Alaska, while below normal temperatures are favored for Southeast Alaska, under  
and ahead of a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over  
most of central and northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with the temperature  
consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Excluding Pacific  
Northwest coastal regions, above normal temperatures are favored over most of  
the northwestern and north-central CONUS, under positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies. Above normal temperatures are likely over much of the eastern CONUS,  
excluding northern areas of the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, consistent  
with the Auto blend of temperature forecast tools. Below normal temperatures  
are favored for most of California and the Southwest, under a predicted trough  
and with increased cloudiness due to the flow of moisture into the region. The  
temperature consolidation favors above normal temperatures across most of the  
Hawaiian Islands, excluding the southeastern Big Island, associated with above  
average sea surface temperatures in the region. 
 
Above normal precipitation is favored for the eastern Aleutians, western and  
southern Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, ahead of the predicted trough.  
Excluding the west coast, above normal precipitation is favored for most of the  
western and central CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation of  
calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Probabilities for above normal  
precipitation exceed 60 percent for parts of the Southwest monsoon region and  
50 percent for parts of the Northern Rockies with predicted enhanced moisture  
flow into these regions. Near to above normal precipitation is slightly favored  
over the eastern CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the  
Auto blend. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent  
with the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface temperatures  
in the region. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to  
good agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, with  
uncertainty related to a variable height forecast and differences among  
temperature and precipitation forecast tools. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2025  
 
ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern  
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement,  
while the pattern evolves and deamplifies. In the manual blend of model  
forecasts, a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist over the  
northwestern Pacific, while the predicted trough over the Bering Sea and  
southwestern Mainland Alaska deamplifies. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies  
expand southward into the Central Plains and eastward over the northeastern  
CONUS in week 2. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across  
Hawaii. 
 
Below normal temperatures are favored for southern Mainland Alaska and  
Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under a predicted trough through much  
of the period. Above normal temperatures continue to be slightly favored for  
northern interior Mainland Alaska in week 2, consistent with the temperature  
consolidation. Excluding the West Coast, above normal temperatures continue to  
be likely for most of the northwestern and north-central CONUS, under a  
predicted ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near normal  
temperatures are favored for much of the Southwest, as the trough over the  
region deamplifies. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for part of  
the California coast around San Francisco Bay, consistent with most temperature  
forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are favored across the eastern CONUS,  
under rising mid-level heights. Above normal temperatures are favored across  
most of the Hawaiian Islands excluding the Big Island, consistent with the  
temperature consolidation.  
 
Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Mainland Alaska, excluding  
the North Slope, and for Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough during  
the period. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for northern areas  
of the Pacific Northwest in week 2, ahead of a predicted trough early in the  
period. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are enhanced for parts of  
the Southwest region in the 8-14 day period with continued increased moisture  
flow into the region early in the period. Above normal precipitation continues  
to be slightly favored for the Central and Northern Plains and most of the  
eastern CONUS, consistent with most precipitation tools and the consolidation.  
Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of southeastern Texas  
in week 2, consistent with the ECMWF model forecast. Above normal precipitation  
is favored across Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the precipitation  
consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak  
signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many areas. 
 
FORECASTER: D Collins 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19520630 - 19940704 - 20040609 - 19840615 - 19750622 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19520630 - 20040610 - 19880709 - 19940704 - 19750622 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 03 - 07 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 05 - 11 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
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