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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Apr 06 - 10, 2023 (6-10 Day Outlook) Valid: Apr 08 - 14, 2023 (8-14 Day Outlook) Issued: Mar 31, 2023 |
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Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri March 31 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2023
Today's model solutions continue to be in good agreement on the predicted
500-hPa circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during
the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian model ensembles due to recent
model skill. The resultant manual blend features anomalous ridging over the
northwestern and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and anomalous troughing over
the central CONUS. A highly amplified ridge is predicted over the Bering Sea
extending eastward to the western Aleutian Islands, while a trough is forecast
over Mainland Alaska.
Persistent anomalous troughing and negative 500-hPa height anomalies support
high probabilities for below-normal temperatures over much of the western and
central CONUS. These probabilities top out in the 80-90% range for parts of
North and South Dakota. Weaker probabilities extend into the Upper and Middle
Mississippi Valley regions, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF temperature
reforecast consolidation tools. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of
above-normal temperatures are depicted for the southeastern CONUS with
probabilities exceeding 80% over portions of the Florida Peninsula, and weaker
probabilities extending northward into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys,
as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Near to below-normal
temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft.
Troughing over the central CONUS favors above-normal precipitation for parts of
the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies
and Plains. Odds also tilt towards near- to above-normal precipitation for much
of the eastern CONUS tied to a baroclinic zone across the center of the CONUS.
Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS,
resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation for portions of the
western and north-central CONUS. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska
is favored by model guidance, resulting in enhanced probabilities for
above-normal precipitation for much of Mainland Alaska, while below-normal
precipitation is forecast over the western Aleutians, supported by most
dynamical precipitation forecast tools.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's GFS
Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to
model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast
domain.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2023
During week-2, strong anomalous ridging with above normal 500-hPa heights is
forecast over the Bering Sea extending eastward to the Aleutians and western
Mainland Alaska, while weak anomalous troughing with below normal 500-hPa
heights is predicted over eastern Alaska. Anomalous ridging with above normal
500-hPa heights is also predicted over the western CONUS. As the forecast
period progresses, a trough predicted over the central CONUS during the 6-10
day period gradually weakens and the trough axis shifts into the northeastern CONUS.
Guidance from the dynamical models, reforecast tools, and others indicate
enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures over parts of the Northern and
Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and most of the central and eastern
CONUS, except for parts of the Southeast where above-normal temperatures are
indicated. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of near- to above-normal
temperatures are favored over the West Coast under predicted anomalous ridging.
Below-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly
flow aloft, with the exception of the Alaska Panhandle where near-normal
temperatures are most likely.
Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS during
the 8-14 day period, resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation
over western CONUS extending eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valley region. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast
across much of the south-central and eastern CONUS, supported by most of the
precipitation forecast tools. Continued surface low pressure over the Gulf of
Alaska is favored by model guidance, resulting in elevated probabilities for
above-normal precipitation for central and eastern Mainland Alaska, with
slightly higher probabilities over the southeastern Mainland. Enhanced chances
for below normal precipitation are forecast across southwestern Mainland Alaska
due to increasing northerly mid-level flow, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF
precipitation reforecast consolidation tools.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's GFS
Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to
model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast
domain.
FORECASTER: Luke H
Notes:
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
April 20.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19820407 - 19750402 - 20030331 - 20020323 - 19550317
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19820407 - 19750401 - 19630312 - 20020325 - 19640324
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Apr 06 - 10 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Apr 08 - 14 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH B B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
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