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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 06 - 10, 2023 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 08 - 14, 2023 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Mar 31, 2023

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri March 31 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2023 
 
Today's model solutions continue to be in good agreement on the predicted  
500-hPa circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during  
the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the  
ensemble means from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian model ensembles due to recent  
model skill. The resultant manual blend features anomalous ridging over the  
northwestern and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and anomalous troughing over  
the central CONUS. A highly amplified ridge is predicted over the Bering Sea  
extending eastward to the western Aleutian Islands, while a trough is forecast  
over Mainland Alaska. 
 
Persistent anomalous troughing and negative 500-hPa height anomalies support  
high probabilities for below-normal temperatures over much of the western and  
central CONUS. These probabilities top out in the 80-90% range for parts of  
North and South Dakota. Weaker probabilities extend into the Upper and Middle  
Mississippi Valley regions, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF temperature  
reforecast consolidation tools. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of  
above-normal temperatures are depicted for the southeastern CONUS with  
probabilities exceeding 80% over portions of the Florida Peninsula, and weaker  
probabilities extending northward into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys,  
as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Near to below-normal  
temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft. 
 
Troughing over the central CONUS favors above-normal precipitation for parts of  
the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies  
and Plains. Odds also tilt towards near- to above-normal precipitation for much  
of the eastern CONUS tied to a baroclinic zone across the center of the CONUS.  
Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS,  
resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation for portions of the  
western and north-central CONUS. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska  
is favored by model guidance, resulting in enhanced probabilities for  
above-normal precipitation for much of Mainland Alaska, while below-normal  
precipitation is forecast over the western Aleutians, supported by most  
dynamical precipitation forecast tools.  
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's GFS  
Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to  
model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast  
domain.  
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2023  
 
During week-2, strong anomalous ridging with above normal 500-hPa heights is  
forecast over the Bering Sea extending eastward to the Aleutians and western  
Mainland Alaska, while weak anomalous troughing with below normal 500-hPa  
heights is predicted over eastern Alaska. Anomalous ridging with above normal  
500-hPa heights is also predicted over the western  CONUS. As the forecast  
period progresses, a trough predicted over the central CONUS during the 6-10  
day period gradually weakens and the trough axis shifts into the northeastern  
CONUS. Guidance from the dynamical models, reforecast tools, and others indicate enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures over parts of the Northern and Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and most of the central and eastern CONUS, except for parts of the Southeast where above-normal temperatures are indicated. Meanwhile, enhanced probabilities of near- to above-normal temperatures are favored over the West Coast under predicted anomalous ridging. Below-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft, with the exception of the Alaska Panhandle where near-normal temperatures are most likely. Ridging is forecast to build over the Eastern Pacific and western CONUS during the 8-14 day period, resulting in a tilt towards below-normal precipitation over western CONUS extending eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast across much of the south-central and eastern CONUS, supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools. Continued surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is favored by model guidance, resulting in elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation for central and eastern Mainland Alaska, with slightly higher probabilities over the southeastern Mainland. Enhanced chances for below normal precipitation are forecast across southwestern Mainland Alaska due to increasing northerly mid-level flow, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF precipitation reforecast consolidation tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast domain. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19820407 - 19750402 - 20030331 - 20020323 - 19550317 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19820407 - 19750401 - 19630312 - 20020325 - 19640324 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 06 - 10 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 08 - 14 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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