No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the July-August-September seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short range forecasts and updated CPC monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the High Plains and Midwest. Newly removed drought over North Dakota and Nebraska may come back late due to predicted below normal precipitation for July and JAS.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the July-August-September seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short range forecasts and updated CPC monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the High Plains and Midwest. Newly removed drought over North Dakota and Nebraska may come back late due to predicted below normal precipitation for July and JAS.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 4 weeks, periodic precipitation across central and eastern portions of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) brought widespread drought amelioration (1-3 class improvement) to parts of the Great Plains, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The onset of the southern moisture flow also improved drought conditions across parts of the Southwest. However, drought and abnormal dryness continued to expand and degrade across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Rockies as of the June 17, 2025 US Drought Monitor.



Looking ahead into the coming July-August-September (JAS) season, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor drier conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest, eastward into parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and equal chances (EC, above-near-below normal) for the precipitation across much of remainder of the western and central CONUS, coupled with a general dry climatology and near to above normal temperatures across much of the CONUS. Therefore, persistence is forecast for the existing drought across much of the West, with potential drought expansion likely over these abnormal dry (D0) areas. One exception for the West is the core monsoon region in the Southwest. Some improvement is favored due to forecast EC for precipitation across the region coupled with a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Drought improvement is also expected for parts of the Midwest due to forecast heavy precipitation across the region in the next two weeks and EC precipitation for the season. Drought removal across the Florida Peninsula is favored with forecast above normal precipitation for the season coupled with a wet climatology and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. The removal of existing drought in several small areas across the Northeast is favored due to forecast heavy precipitation across the region in the next two weeks and above normal precipitation expected for the season.



Drought persistence is expected across much of the Hawaiian Islands with expansion likely in some abnormal dry (D0) areas in the Leeward side due to the CPC seasonal outlook favoring below normal precipitation and the Islands also in the climatological dry season. No drought conditions are currently present or favored to develop across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 17, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion