The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook included a few changes. Improvment and removal were expanded to include parts of the Mid-Atlantic and small areas of the Southeast where there is an increased chance of beneficial precipitation from March 31 through the first week of April. Heavy precipitation during late March supports improvement for southern Texas, while heavy precipitation forecast during early April led to a slight reduction in the development forecast in the initial SDO released on March 20th. Persistence is forecast for parts of northern Idaho and Washington due to the lack of a wet signal during April and increasingly dry climatology later in the spring and early summer.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook included a few changes. Improvment and removal were expanded to include parts of the Mid-Atlantic and small areas of the Southeast where there is an increased chance of beneficial precipitation from March 31 through the first week of April. Heavy precipitation during late March supports improvement for southern Texas, while heavy precipitation forecast during early April led to a slight reduction in the development forecast in the initial SDO released on March 20th. Persistence is forecast for parts of northern Idaho and Washington due to the lack of a wet signal during April and increasingly dry climatology later in the spring and early summer.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Following a La Niña winter, drought expanded and intensified across southern California and the Southwest. More recently during early to mid-March, drought has started to also expand throughout the Central to Southern Great Plains. Based on an increasingly dry climatology during April-May-June (AMJ), forecast confidence is high that drought persists throughout the Southwest and southern California through the end of June. The AMJ outlook, favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperature, supports persistence and development for the Central to Southern Great Plains. Drought is also expected to persist across the Northern Great Plains, but forecast confidence is somewhat low due to an increasingly wet springtime climatology. Drought removal for small portions of northern Idaho and Washington where periods of heavy precipitation are forecast through at least early April, while persistence is more likely for the northern Cascades of Washington and western Montana.



The April-May-June precipitation outlook along with an increasingly wet climatology support improvement and removal across parts of northeastern Missouri, northeastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, lower Michigan, and southern Wisconsin. Farther to the north across the Upper Mississippi Valley, persistence is forecast after a lack of winter snowfall and the AMJ outlook calling for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Along the East Coast and throughout the Southeast, forecast confidence is low given no clear wet signal among the forecast tools. Removal is most likely for New England where recent precipitation has been heavier and near to above-normal precipitation is favored through early April. Removal or improvement is forecast for the Florida Peninsula due to a very wet June climatology. However, the Florida drought is expected to persist and may even intensify during April before their wet season begins. Persistence is forecast for parts of the Southeast with the AMJ outlook depicting equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation and an elevated chance of above-normal temperatures. The risk of rapid onset drought will be closely monitored as temperatures warm later this spring and water demand increases.



Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain drought-free through the end of June. Drought is forecast to persist for the leeward side of the Hawaiian Island



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 17, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion