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Latest Seasonal Assessment -
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) peaked at 62.95 percent during late October 2022. Since that time, a steady decrease in drought coverage and intensity occurred across much of the West, northern Great Plains, and Midwest. Drought coverage for the CONUS is at its lowest since the summer 2020. Based on an above-average snowpack and a continued wet pattern into the latter half of March, additional drought removal or improvement is forecast throughout much of California and the Great Basin. Initial dryness heading into the spring and the April-May-June (AMJ) outlook favoring below-normal precipitation support persistence and development across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. An increasingly wet climatology during the spring favors removal or improvement for the northern to central Great Plains and Midwest. In addition, the spring melting of a deep snowpack across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota should contribute to improvement or removal. Elevated probabilities for below-normal precipitation in the AMJ outlook support broad-scale persistence across the southern high Plains with development for parts of western Texas and southern to eastern New Mexico. Removal is the most likely outcome for Florida, based on widespread, heavy precipitation during mid-March along with a wet climatology during June. The Northeast, Alaska, and Hawaii are forecast to remain drought-free through the end of June, while development or persistence is likely for parts of Puerto Rico.
Forecaster: Brad Pugh
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 20, 2023 at 3 PM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion
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www.nws.noaa.gov
