No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the January - March seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal and improvement based on short term forecasts that may result in drought reduction. A significant pattern change is likely to occur in early January, with negative NAO and positive PNA signals contributing to outbreaks of Arctic air into the central and eastern US. While significantly changing the revised CPC temperature outlook for January, the pattern change has not resulted in substantive changes to the precipitation outlook for January, which still resembles a canonical La Nina response.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the January - March seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal and improvement based on short term forecasts that may result in drought reduction. A significant pattern change is likely to occur in early January, with negative NAO and positive PNA signals contributing to outbreaks of Arctic air into the central and eastern US. While significantly changing the revised CPC temperature outlook for January, the pattern change has not resulted in substantive changes to the precipitation outlook for January, which still resembles a canonical La Nina response.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 4 weeks, periodic precipitation across the eastern half of the US brought widespread drought amelioration from parts of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee-Ohio Valleys to much of the Appalachians. The onset of the wet season also continues to improve drought conditions across parts of the Northwest. However, drought and abnormal dryness continued to expand and degrade across southwestern quarter of the contiguous United States as of the January 7, 2025 US Drought Monitor. With La Niña conditions favored to continue during the February - April period, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor a canonical La Niña response pattern, with drier conditions across the southern tier of the CONUS, a winter storm track favoring the Great Lakes, Tennessee-Ohio Valleys, and interior New England, and an enhanced wet season for the Northwest. Therefore, further drought reduction is favored across parts of the Northwest, Great Lakes, and Appalachians. The recharge of soil moisture across the upper Midwest and northern High Plains may be slowed due to the frozen season, as well as climatologically low precipitation amounts. Across the southern tier, drought persistence or expansion is expected for Arizona, portions of New Mexico, southern and western Texas, and most of the Southeast.



Drought conditions have quickly expanded across Hawaii during the past few weeks due to rainfall deficit. For the rest of wet season months of February through March, the La Niña conditions typically favor enhanced rainfall across the islands. Therefore, drought reduction is favored for FMA. No drought conditions are currently present or favored to develop across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: Feburary 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion