No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the July-August-September seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short range forecasts and updated CPC monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the High Plains and Midwest. Newly removed drought over North Dakota and Nebraska may come back late due to predicted below normal precipitation for July and JAS.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the July-August-September seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short range forecasts and updated CPC monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the High Plains and Midwest. Newly removed drought over North Dakota and Nebraska may come back late due to predicted below normal precipitation for July and JAS.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought expanded and intensified across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West following a drier end to their wet season. Additional drought development is expected for parts of southwestern Idaho, Oregon, and Washington before October. Persistence is forecast throughout much of the ongoing drought areas of the West. Southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico are the most likely areas in the West to have improvement due to Monsoon rainfall. Above-normal precipitation during a wet time of year resulted in a major decrease in drought coverage and intensity across the Great Plains since the spring. However, the August-September-October outlook favors below normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the Northern to Central Great Plains which supports persistence. Development is most likely for areas of the Dakotas, Kansas, and eastern Montana where there are 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits. Farther to the east across the Midwest, heavy precipitation during the remainder of July supports drought removal or improvement. The onset of the rainy season has brought a decrease in drought coverage for the Florida Peninsula and drought is likely to end.



Drought removal is forecast for Alaska, while persistence or development is favored for Hawaii. Although short-term dryness has developed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands recently, drought is unlikely to be present at the end of October.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: August 21, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion