Updated forecast information utilized in the May monthly drought outlook necessitated some changes to the seasonal drought outlook for May - July 2025. Due to short term forecasts favoring extremely heavy rainfall across the central and southern Plains, the seasonal outlook was updated to reflect a potential for improvements, consistent with the monthly outlook. Elsewhere, while the monthly outlook depicts a potential for drought persistence and expansion across the Southeast, these degradations are likely to be short term in nature. Therefore, the improvements through July indicated on the seasonal outlook have been preserved in this update.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Updated forecast information utilized in the May monthly drought outlook necessitated some changes to the seasonal drought outlook for May - July 2025. Due to short term forecasts favoring extremely heavy rainfall across the central and southern Plains, the seasonal outlook was updated to reflect a potential for improvements, consistent with the monthly outlook. Elsewhere, while the monthly outlook depicts a potential for drought persistence and expansion across the Southeast, these degradations are likely to be short term in nature. Therefore, the improvements through July indicated on the seasonal outlook have been preserved in this update.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Latest Seasonal Assessment - The Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) for June-July-August (JJA) 2025 favors widespread improvement/removal of drought conditions over the eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) due to a combination of factors. Frontal systems have chipped away at the drought in the Northeast and Southeast this spring, culminating in the very recent passage of a slow-moving mid-level cutoff low and near-surface occluded front which delivered soaking rains to these areas. The approach of the Florida rainy season should bring an end to the drought over that state. Only the largest longer-term precipitation deficits may remain in relatively small areas across the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the summer.



For the High Plains and Midwest, drought persistence is favored in addition to new drought development, with CPC's monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks generally favoring elevated odds of warmer-than-normal summer temperatures, and either drier-than-normal conditions or Equal Chances (EC). In the absence of a strong wet signal at monthly and seasonal time-scales, drought persistence is considered the most likely scenario. In the Western and Southern regions, odds strongly favor drought persistence. One possible exception is the monsoon region of the Southwest, which normally starts to ramp up near the start of July. Even though CPC's seasonal precipitation outlook shows a weak tilt in the odds towards wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, dynamical and statistical models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. is unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.



Outside the Lower 48 states, no drought is expected to develop in Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. Virgin Islands. In Hawaii, ENSO-neutral conditions and the current dry season favor a typical trade wind pattern, with rainfall along the windward slopes of the islands, and a notable lack of rainfall along the leeward slopes. Persistence of drought is favored.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 19, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion