Since mid-August, there are stronger indicators for a very warm and dry September in the middle of the country; therefore, a broad area of drought development is now forecast in this region. The seasonal update forecasts this development to persist until the end of November, although with lower confidence than the September drought development forecast. Farther east, drought persistence with limited expansion is forecast for southern sections of the Northeast Region, but any existing drought at the end of September is expected to improve over the ensuing two months. Finally, in southern and western Texas, the areas of develoopment identified in the initial release of the autumn outlook have been removed due to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Herald in late August, which should preclude drought development despite odds favoing subnormal precipitation in that region for September.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since mid-August, there are stronger indicators for a very warm and dry September in the middle of the country; therefore, a broad area of drought development is now forecast in this region. The seasonal update forecasts this development to persist until the end of November, although with lower confidence than the September drought development forecast. Farther east, drought persistence with limited expansion is forecast for southern sections of the Northeast Region, but any existing drought at the end of September is expected to improve over the ensuing two months. Finally, in southern and western Texas, the areas of develoopment identified in the initial release of the autumn outlook have been removed due to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Herald in late August, which should preclude drought development despite odds favoing subnormal precipitation in that region for September.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past four weeks, widespread drought expansion (1-4 class degradation) occurred across much of the Southern Region and New Mexico, parts of central-eastern Arizona, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, and northern Virginia due to episodes of extreme heat and dryness. Drought removal/improvement was observed over parts of southeastern California and adjacent Nevada and Utah due to heavy rainfall brought by Hurricane Hilary and its remnants. Periods of heavy rainfall also reversed the trend of drought development across much of Michigan and parts of western New York and adjacent Pennsylvania. Drought improvement/removal was also observed over parts of southern Texas, the Carolinas and Florida due to tropical storms. The autumn and early winter months are a highly transitional time of year, as the wet season begins to ramp up along the West Coast. Above-normal precipitation during the remainder of September and an increasingly wet climatology through the late fall and early winter favors improvement along coastal Oregon and Washington. Farther inland, increased chances of below-normal precipitation (October-November-December) favors persistence or development across the interior Pacific Northwest over existing drought regions across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Drought conditions are also favored to persist over the existing drought regions across parts of the Four Corners region due to the suppressed Monsoon, weak predicted wet signals, and a drier climatology. Drought persistence is also favored for the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley due to lack of a wet signal for the coming season, the areas entering its climatological dry season and a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge. Drought improvement/removal is likely across eastern New Mexico, most of the Central and Southern Plains, parts of the Southeast and Northeast due to forecast above-normal precipitation and/or a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.Alaska currently is drought free and is likely to continue as the region enters the cold season of the year. Removal or improvement are anticipated for drought across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drought persistence and development is forecast for the Hawaiian Islands due to forecast below-normal precipitation.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 19, 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion