Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for August and August-September-October (ASO), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for ASO, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on July 15, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



Due to a dry end to the 2024-2025 wet season and periods of heat early this summer, drought has developed and intensified across the Pacific Northwest since the spring. Based on low soil moisture and streamflows along with mostly dry weather through the summer and above-normal temperatures favored during ASO, persistence and development are forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West. Conversely, improvement is favored for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico which is forecast to receive locally heavy precipitation during the next week and that is also consistent with the wetter climatology related to the Monsoon. Closer to the Four Corners, persistence is more likely as ASO favors below-normal precipitation.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West Region.



Much of the Central to Northern Central Great Plains have received above-normal precipitation from mid-April through mid-July which is one of wetter times of year. This wet spring and early summer pattern led to major drought improvement or elimination. However, there are signs of a transition to a drier pattern, especially across the Central Great Plains, during the final week of July as a 500-hPa ridge amplifies. Above-normal temperatures are likely to accompany this drier pattern. Consistent with the ASO outlook leaning towards below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, persistence is forecast for ongoing drought areas of the Central to Northern Great Plains. Development is most likely for areas that have received below-normal precipitation during the past 30 to 60 days. If the Monthly Drought Outlook (released July 31st) for August expands the development, then the updated Seasonal Drought Outlook would likely follow with an increased chance of development later this summer and continuing through the end of October.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



Long-term drought, dating back multiple years, across Texas is expected to persist as the remainder of July is forecast to be drier-than-normal and there is no strong wet signal among the seasonal tools. However, forecast confidence is low for western Texas since precipitation has averaged above-normal during the past 90 days and ASO is a wetter time of year. Due to antecedent wetness with 90-day precipitation surpluses of 5 or more inches across much of the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, development is not forecast at this time. Through the summer and early fall, prospects for rapid onset drought will be closely monitored as this region can quickly go from excessive wetness to drought.



Forecast confidence is low for the South Region.



During early July, a lack of precipitation coupled with above-normal temperatures and high evapotranspiration rates led to drought expansion and intensification across northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southwestern Lower Michigan. Since the remainder of July is expected to be on the wetter side and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation are forecast during ASO, drought removal or improvement are forecast for those parts of the Midwest. Forecast confidence is reduced since the rainfall will be convective in late July and there are weak signals in the seasonal precipitation tools. Removal is also forecast for a small drought area in southeastern Iowa with beneficial precipitation expected through the end of July. Elsewhere, drought persistence is more likely for northwestern Minnesota consistent with a slight lean towards below-normal precipitation during ASO. Although elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities (33 to 40 percent chance) are forecast for the Western Corn Belt and Upper Mississippi Valley during ASO, above-normal precipitation is expected during the latter half of July which precludes any development being forecast for these areas.



Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.



Nearly all of the Southeast is drought-free with 90-day precipitation averaging above-normal. Although parts of southeastern Alabama, northeastern Georgia, and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas have started to dry out in early to mid-July, development is unlikely on the seasonal time scale with the ASO outlook favoring above-normal precipitation. However, the Southeast could be vulnerable to rapid onset drought, especially during the rest of the summer and early fall, should shorter periods of dryness and excessive heat occur. Please refer to the Week-2 U.S. Hazards Outlook for any rapid onset drought forecasts and also the Monthly Drought Outlook, released on July 31. Drought coverage has decreased across the Florida Peninsula since early June as the convective rainfall season ramped up. However, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) continues for southeastern Florida where 30-day precipitation has averaged below-normal. Since ASO is a wet time of year for the Florida Peninsula and above-normal precipitation is favored during this three-month period, drought removal is forecast throughout Florida.



Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.



The Northeast is drought-free except for small long-term drought areas across northeastern Cape Cod. Since precipitation at time scales ranging from 30 days and dating back 1 year has averaged below-normal and there are equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation during ASO, long-term drought is favored to persist across southeastern Massachusetts. Although 30-day precipitation deficits are 2 to 3 inches across southeastern Maine, northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont, the lack of a dry signal on the seasonal time scale precludes any designation of development for the remainder of New England. 30-day precipitation has averaged more than 150 percent of normal across the Mid-Atlantic which lowers the chance of any development through the summer and early fall.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



During late June and early July, short-term drought developed across portions of northwestern Alaska and Yukon River Valley. A transition towards cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of near to above-normal precipitation by late July may begin to result in improving conditions. Since the ASO outlook favors above-normal precipitation, drought is likely to end either later this summer or during the fall.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) having an increased chance of below-normal precipitation during ASO, persistence is forecast for ongoing drought areas of Hawaii. Development is anticipated for parts of the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai that are designated with abnormal dryness (DO) in the U.S. Drought Monitor. Due to less of a dry signal in the NMME, no development is forecast for Oahu or Kauai at this time.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Short-term precipitation deficits have recently increased with declining soil moisture and 28-day average streamflows. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormal dryness (D0) is designated for more than a third of Puerto Rico. Despite this recent D0 expansion, an increasingly wet climatology limits the chance for any drought development on the seasonal time scale and favors wetter conditions during the next two to three months.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, short-term dryness is affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands but an increasingly wet climatology precludes any development on the outlook.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: August 21, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT