Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for June and June-July-August (JJA), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JJA, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on May 13, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



WEST REGION: With the West now in its climatological dry season, most areas are expected to see persistence or even worsening of drought conditions during the summer season. Any improvement that does occur is likely to be very localized and is essentially unpredictable. In Montana, areas of drought development are depicted, with the exception of far southern portions of the state, which during the past 30 days has seen accumulated Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) values ranging from 75-200 percent of normal. Above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is favored across the state in the June and JJA 2025 outlooks, with a 50-60 percent tilt in the odds towards below normal precipitation in the seasonal outlook. A relatively warm, dry seasonal outlook also promotes drought development in nearby portions of Idaho. One area in the West that may receive some improvement in the drought is the Southwest once the climatological summer monsoon gets underway near the beginning of July, but monsoon precipitation is always very challenging to predict. With the support of several dynamical and statistical tools, the CPC precipitation outlook for JJA predicts a slight tilt in the odds towards above normal precipitation over an area centered on western and central Arizona. This is indicative of a shift of the precipitation into the western monsoon region. However, with only a minimal tilt in the odds towards above normal precipitation and many of the available tools forecasting drier conditions, drought persistence is considered to be the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is considered high for most areas, but low across the monsoon region.



HIGH PLAINS REGION: Much of this region has seen persistent drought, especially in the general vicinity of Nebraska, and over western North Dakota. In Nebraska, significant precipitation deficits (2-4 inches with localized pockets of 4-8 inches) have been observed in the past 6 months, with 1-3 inch deficits recorded in the last 30-days. In the somewhat drier climatology area of western North Dakota, 90-day PNPs are generally 50-75 percent of normal, and recent 7-day PNP values fall within the lowest ten percent of the historical precipitation distribution. In the upcoming 7-days, two significant low pressure systems in this region are forecast to produce anywhere from 3-7 inches of rain to the Dakotas. Though these amounts are very impressive, they are not likely to have a significant impact on the JJA season as a whole. While Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below normal precipitation is mostly predicted at the monthly time scale, the seasonal outlook favors increased odds of below normal precipitation. Given this, and favored warmer-than-normal temperatures for both June and JJA, a large fraction of the High Plains region is expected to see drought persistence and new drought development.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



SOUTH REGION: The majority of this region remains free of dryness and drought at this time, due to frequent mid-level troughs upstream over the Interior West and related development of low pressure systems over the area, and stalled baroclinic zones. Much of the South received well above-normal precipitation in the past 6 months, ranging from 4-8 inches (locally up to 12 inches). However, southern and southwestern portions of Texas, and the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle, have largely missed out on the unusually heavy precipitation so far this spring. Monthly and seasonal temperature outlooks favor above normal temperatures for these areas, which places a high evapotranspirative (ET) demand on regional vegetation. For the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Texas, below normal precipitation is slightly favored during June and JJA, though for southern Texas these same outlooks favor EC, in part to potential tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Drought persistence is therefore favored for these areas across the South.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



MIDWEST REGION: The majority of the Midwest region is currently free of drought, though abnormal dryness has been increasing throughout the spring most notably in an area centered on northern Illinois. PNP values for the past 30-days range from 25 to 75 percent of normal in this region, which also includes much of Indiana, southwestern Michigan, southern Wisconsin, and near the Missouri-Iowa border. Comparable PNP values can also be found at the 30-day time scale for western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. For the last 7-days, most of these same areas have PNP values of 10 percent of normal or lower. Despite beneficial precipitation forecast during the next two weeks, the longer-range outlooks are less optimistic. Warmer-than-normal mean temperatures are favored for June and JJA, which as noted earlier places an increased demand on soil moisture and vegetation. For precipitation, the monthly outlook favors EC, which the seasonal outlook favors below normal precipitation for western portions of the Midwest region, and EC elsewhere. During the summer, this region often receives beneficial rains from organized thunderstorm clusters (MCS) which often travel near the southern edge of the westerlies. Trying to predict the exact tracks, however, at this time range is very difficult. Therefore, persistence of drought is favored, in addition to new drought development. One exception may be central portions of Lower Michigan where at least a 1-category improvement is favored in the drought depiction.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



SOUTHEAST REGION: Drought coverage has been largely focused over coastal portions of the Southeast region this spring, including most of Florida. As of this writing, a slow-moving mid-level trough and accompanying occluded frontal system brought significant rainfall to the region, helping to ease drought conditions. An across-the-board one to two-category improvement is anticipated over the Southeast during JJA which should be enough to remove most of the region's drought. This is supported by CPC's monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks for both June and JJA, which favor above normal precipitation across most of the Southeast. The Sunshine State is nearing the end of its climatological dry season, and its drought may be gone by early to mid July, once the wet season's sea breeze convergence regime becomes established over the state. Even if some drought were to linger past mid July, there is still another 6 weeks to go before the end of the SDO period. Another factor working in favor of drought removal is the seasonal appearance of tropical cyclones, with the beginning of the climatological Atlantic hurricane season just two weeks away.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



NORTHEAST REGION: With above normal precipitation favored across the Northeast region in June and in the JJA season, a one-category improvement in drought conditions is expected, which is enough to remove most drought areas. It will be more difficult (but not impossible) for the localized D2 regions (such as those in Maryland, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania) with larger precipitation deficits that extend back 6-12 months or more to see complete drought removal. These longer-term deficits are related to lower stream flows and reduced groundwater availability. The concern is that even if the drought areas are fully removed, there may not be enough of a comfort margin in the event of a 2 or 3 week long hot, dry spell before drought conditions return.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



ALASKA: There is currently no drought in the state of Alaska, and none is predicted to develop this summer.



Forecast confidence is considered high.



HAWAII: Given ENSO-neutral conditions and the fact that Hawaii has transitioned from its climatological wet to dry season, most of the island chain is expected to see a continuation of drought conditions, especially leeward areas. Trade wind showers are expected along the windward slopes of the main islands, while leeward slopes are favored to be on the dry side.



Forecast confidence is moderate.



PUERTO RICO: With the climatological rainy season now in progress, and the traditional start of the Atlantic hurricane season only two weeks away, there is no expectation of drought for the foreseeable future. In addition, most of the statistical and dynamical model guidance at the seasonal time-scale shows conflicting results. In the absence of a strong signal to the contrary, Puerto Rico is expected to remain free of drought.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: Considerations that apply to Puerto Rico also apply to the USVI area. Accordingly, no drought development is foreseen at this time.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 19, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT