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HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion
 
Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook
 

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January and January-February-March (JFM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JFM, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on December 17, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



Drought conditions have slowly decreased in the Western Region, mostly due to improvements across the Northwest since the beginning of the wet season. Drought (D1 or greater on the US Drought Monitor) continues to cover nearly 35 percent of the Western Region, with areas of severe drought across the northern High Plains, portions of the northern Rockies, the southern Great Basin, and western Arizona. The January - March period contains the core wet season for the West Coast states, so precipitation during this period is crucial for water supply into much of the year 2025. During the latter half of December, an active pattern is favored for the Northwest, with atmospheric river events bringing widespread heavy precipitation and mountain snowfall, though above-average temperatures may prevent lower snow elevations on the mountain slopes. This short term precipitation should continue the trend of gradual drought reduction across the Northwest, especially since snowpack coverage is already above normal across the Cascades, northern Rockies, and far northern Sierra Nevadas. During January, the CPC precipitation outlook favors above-average precipitation centered over the northern Rockies, while the seasonal outlook for JFM depicts a broader wet signal across the entire northern portion of the Western Region, along with a slight tilt towards below-normal temperatures. These climate signals favor continued drought improvements throughout the JFM period for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana, and northwestern Wyoming. Drier climatology and frozen soils and streams make widespread drought reduction less likely across the High Plains through the end of March. Across the southern tier, below-average precipitation is favored for the desert Southwest, which may promote drought expansion across portions of Arizona and New Mexico, especially since early season snowpack coverage is low across the southern Rockies. Uncertainty remains high across California, as an active MJO pattern may induce a period with an active southern stream during January.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the northern half of the Western Region, and low to moderate across the southern half.



Over 60 percent of the High Plains region is currently experiencing drought conditions, which marks a significant increase from the beginning of September. Precipitation during late autumn helped reduce drought conditions across southern Colorado and western Kansas, but for the most part drought conditions have not changed much in the past few weeks. The winter months tend to be a dry time of year for the High Plains, and soils and streams frequently remain frozen through the end of March, particularly across the northern Plains. During the next 7 days, a clipper system is expected to bring a few inches of snow across the northern Plains, with little precipitation elsewhere. Above average precipitation is favored during Week-2, and the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks both favor above-average precipitation across the western Dakotas. Despite these somewhat favorable signals, the low winter climatology and moisture remaining primarily above the ground in snow cover makes drought persistence the most likely outcome through the end of March.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.



Drought coverage stands near 60 percent across the Southern Region, which is extensive, but slightly less than at the beginning of the fall months and an improvement from the beginning of the year. The best improvements occurred across western Texas and Oklahoma, where a period of enhanced precipitation provided ample recharge. In contrast, drought conditions have worsened across south-central Texas. During the next week, mostly dry conditions are favored for the southern Plains, with a frontal system favored to bring an inch or more of rainfall to Arkansas and western Tennessee. Above-average precipitation is favored for Week-2, which may also bring localized drought relief. During the January - March period, climate anomalies associated with La Niñ\;a favor a storm track initiating across the lower Mississippi Valley, which, coupled with a high winter precipitation climatology, may help alleviate remaining drought across Arkansas, the Tennessee Valley, and far northern Louisiana and Mississippi. In contrast, a weaker southern stream may bring drier conditions and exacerbate drought conditions across eastern Texas and along the immediate Gulf Coast. While there is fair confidence in the broad-scale ENSO response pattern, the tight gradient between above-average precipitation in the northern portion of the region and the drier signal associated with Southeast ridging creates uncertainty for a seasonal scale prediction.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern region.



Moderate to severe drought is currently affecting nearly half of the Midwest climate region, with drought areas spread like patchwork across most of the region, except in the vicinity of the Ohio River, which is primarily drought free. During the last month, a swath of heavy precipitation brought some relief to the upper Midwest, but most areas received subnormal precipitation through the end of the autumn season. During the next week, a clipper system is forecast to cross the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region, along with a blast of arctic air. This system will bring a swath of snow with it, but accumulations are unlikely to significantly impact drought conditions in the short term. Above-average precipitation is favored during Week-2, which may result in modest improvements across the Midwest. A better chance for improvement extends into the January - March period, where La Niñ\;a patterns favor a shift in the storm track to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Above-average precipitation is favored for most of the Midwest Region at both the monthly and seasonal time scales. While frozen streams and soils may slow the recharge process, extended periods of above-normal precipitation should improve the drought depiction overall across the Corn Belt and Great Lakes region. Persistence is maintained for the upper Mississippi Valley and areas west, including all of Minnesota and most of Iowa, where the wet signal is slightly weaker, and climatological precipitation is lower.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest region.



Similar to many other regions across the CONUS, more than half of the Southeast region is currently experiencing drought conditions. A swath of rainfall brought improvements to Alabama and Georgia, and a series of winter storms boosted moisture across the central Appalachians and piedmont of Virginia. In contrast, a lackluster end to the wet season across Florida resulted in wholescale D0 introduction on the US Drought Monitor, with portions of the Panhandle and northern peninsula experiencing moderate drought. Generally light to moderate precipitation is favored through the next week, which is unlikely to significantly alter drought impacts. Near normal rainfall is favored during Week-2 across the Atlantic seaboard, with a slight tilt towards above-normal rainfall for Alabama, northern Georgia, and the Appalachians. During La Niñ\;a winters, anomalous ridging frequently develops across the Southeast, resulting in drier and warmer than normal conditions. This feature is consistent with the CPC monthly and seasonal guidance. Given these longer range outlooks, drought development through the end of March is favored for Florida and the Southeast's coastal plain region. Persistence of drought is the most likely outcome for the coastal Carolinas as well, though in contrast, an interior displaced storm track may bring some improvements to northern Alabama.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast region.



An unusually widespread and severe drought developed during the late summer and fall months across the Northeast, with 65 percent of the region experiencing moderate or severe drought as of 10 December during a time of year when recharge is highly effective. Several storm systems moved through the area, generating widespread precipitation even in coastal areas east of the storm track. These systems improved conditions across Virginia, the central Appalachians, and interior New England, where a modest snowpack is beginning to build. Still, groundwater conditions remain quite low across the Delmarva northeastward to the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England, and streamflows continue to range well below normal in the hardest hit drought areas. With high climatological precipitation year round, frequent snow cover, and no evapotranspirative demand, there is a strong case that even near normal precipitation would generally ease drought conditions for the Northeast during the next several months. However, it is quite unusual for drought conditions this extensive to be in place at the onset of winter, and absent a clear wet signal, it is unlikely for groundwater and streamflow conditions to completely recover. During the next week, a clipper system is favored to bring light snowfall across much of the region, with coastal low development occurring likely too far offshore to provide a more significant moisture boost. Cold, dry conditions are expected to follow this system, followed by a substantial warm up. Both the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks maintain equal chances for below-, near-, or above-median precipitation, and there will likely be periods of coastal storm activity that alleviates drought conditions followed by extended dry periods that may cause conditions to degrade. Therefore, absent a clear climate signal, gradual drought reduction is favored, but areas currently experiencing severe drought are unlikely to be drought free by the end of March. Should snowpack conditions be much below normal, there is a risk for more significant drought development later in the spring, beyond this outlook period.



Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast region.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place in Alaska, and drought development is not likely during the cold, dark winter months. Snowpack conditions across western Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula will need to be monitored, and could cause drought concerns later into 2025.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Abnormally dry conditions during late November and the first half of December resulted in some drought expansion across Hawaii. The core of the wet season occurs during the January - March period, and CPC's monthly and seasonal guidance favors above-normal precipitation due to an anticipated La Niñ\;a response pattern. Enhanced trade winds and potential Kona Low features both can boost precipitation across the islands. Therefore, drought reduction is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Puerto Rico. The CFS forecasts across the Caribbean region favor above-normal precipitation, which is consistent with climate anomalies associated with La Niñ\;a events. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop during the January - March period.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands, and the same climate signals factoring into the forecast for Puerto Rico also apply to the Virgin Islands. No drought is anticipated to develop through the end of March.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: January 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST

 


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