Latest Monthly Assessment - Following a very dry October, drought coverage expanded and intensified across much of the eastern and central U.S. According to the U.S Drought Monitor valid on October 29, drought coverage for the contiguous U.S. is at 54 percent which is the largest coverage since December 2022. A wet start to November supports drought removal and improvement across portions of the Southern to Central Great Plains and Midwest. Although the updated November outlook favors above-normal precipitation for the entire Central to Southern Great Plains, the drought removal and improvement were limited to areas where the heaviest precipitation is forecast during early November. Broad-scale persistence is expected for most of the West as improvement becomes more likely beyond the end of November. Based on increasing precipitation deficits dating back to the beginning of October, declining soil moisture, and continued dry weather through at least early November, persistence and development are forecast for parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Forecast confidence, especially across the Southeast, is tempered due to an elevated chance of a tropical cyclone emerging from the Caribbean Sea.



Drought removal and improvement are forecast for Hawaii. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to remain drought-free through the end of November.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion