Latest Monthly Assessment - Frequent storminess across the Northwest helped alleviate drought conditions during the last month. Above-average precipitation was also observed across the far northern tier, and across the central Gulf Coast northeastward into upper New England. The best recharge occurred across the central Appalachians, with regions previously experiencing severe drought in West Virginia now drought free. In contrast, drier conditions prevailed across much of the rest of the US, and drought conditions worsened along portions of the southern tier and the central Rockies.



With La Niña conditions beginning to develop across the equatorial Pacific, reduced southern stream moisture is favored during January, with the revised monthly precipitation outlook from CPC showing increased probabilities for below-average precipitation across the Southwest and south-central CONUS. This favored pattern, in addition to antecedent dryness, favors continued drought expansion across southern California, much of Arizona, and parts of New Mexico and Texas. In contrast, wetter conditions are favored for the Northwest, including the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, which favors continued drought improvements. A pattern shift towards colder conditions for the central and eastern US is also favored during January, which should reduce evapotranspirative demand across the Southeast, and may allow any storm systems to boost snowpack coverage across the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. Short term forecasts for widespread rainfall across the Ohio River Valley and New England indicate the areas with best opportunities for recharge and further drought reduction. A drier climatology favors persistence across much of the Plains, while more entrenched drought impacts coupled with reduced opportunities for widespread precipitation favors persistence across the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.



No drought conditions are currently present or forecast to develop during January across Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Drought conditions have slowly expanded across Hawaii, and precipitation during January is unlikely to significantly reduce these impacts.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion