Latest Monthly Assessment - Since the March Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) released on February 29, 2024, drought has continued to slowly improve across most of the Intermountain West due to a persistent storm track, especially over areas that saw several atmospheric river events since the beginning of the year. Improvement has also been observed across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, due in large part to a strong El Niño signal in the equatorial Pacific creating favorable conditions for an active storm track across the southern tier of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). In recent weeks, strong storm systems have also traversed the central CONUS leading to broad improvements across parts of the Great Plains and Midwest. However, where adequate precipitation did not fall there were some localized regions where drought conditions spread or deteriorated.



Looking ahead to April 2024, drought conditions are favored to largely persist across the northern tier of the CONUS and parts of the Intermountain West. The exception is the Desert Southwest, where recent above normal precipitation, aided by an active storm track during much of the winter season, has resulted in improving drought conditions since mid-March. This region is primed for additional improvement over the next couple weeks due to wetter than normal precipitation outlooks. Drought improvement and removal are also forecast over much of the Central and Southern Plains and extending into the Mississippi Valley for similar reasoning.



Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of April, given wet antecedent conditions and the time of year. Drought persistence is favored in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. There are some conflicting signals among some of the forecast tools in Puerto Rico, but recent improvements and a tilt toward above normal precipitation should largely stave off any drought development through the end of April. The U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought free.



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: April 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion