Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for June, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for June, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on May 27, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



With the West now in its climatological dry season, most areas are expected to see persistence or even worsening of drought conditions during the month of June. Any improvement that does occur is likely to be more localized or scattered in nature and is essentially unpredictable. This is especially the case in Arizona. Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin is approaching the mouth of the Gulf of California (morning of May 31st), and may initiate a gulf surge of increased moisture up the Gulf and into Arizona during the next few days. Initially the enhanced moisture will be countered by very dry sub-cloud conditions currently in place across Arizona, and it is thought that whatever rain does fall (even if it registers as above-normal) may not be enough on a broad-scale to result in a 1-category improvement in the U.S. Drought Monitor. It is also thought that even if the summer monsoon were to start by the end of June, it is unlikely to produce enough precipitation to warrant an improvement in the current drought conditions across the Southwest. Similar to Arizona, New Mexico may register above-normal precipitation throughout the month of June, but it is not expected to be enough to justify a one-category improvement in statewide drought conditions.



Elsewhere across the West, according to a recent (May 20, 2025) update from the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation working in tandem with increased evaporative demand continued to rapidly melt western U.S. snow pack Special Snow Drought Update: Rapid Snowmelt | May 20, 2025 | Drought.gov. This has occurred despite many stations reaching near to above-average peak snow water equivalent (SWE) during the snow accumulation season. Some stations in Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico, saw record early melt out. Among other things, resulting dry soils and vegetation can lead to an early start to the fire season, and early melt out can significantly impact the availability of water supplies later in the summer.



Precipitation outlooks at all time-scales out to a month in advance support mostly near to below-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and California. New drought development is possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and central California where little rainfall is anticipated, temperatures are favored to be primarily above-normal, and the U.S. Drought Monitor has pre-existing D0 conditions (abnormal dryness).



Forecast confidence is considered high for most areas, but low across the monsoon region.



According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormal dryness (D0) and drought (D1-D4) collectively cover 75 percent of the High Plains region, with drought accounting for 43 percent of the total. Looking back at the 90-day accumulated percent of normal precipitation (PNP) map reveals two areas where PNPs fall between the 50th and 75th percentiles of the historical distribution. These areas include western Colorado, and portions of Nebraska/Kansas. During the past 28-days, streamflow values in these areas have been within the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. In the past two weeks, 3-5 inches of rain fell over the vicinity of the western Dakotas, portions of Nebraska, and eastern Kansas, helping to offset precipitation deficits that had built up over the past few months. During the next 7-days, WPC forecasts at least 0.5-inch of precipitation over the southern half of the High Plains region, with some areas in southeastern Kansas predicted to get over 3 inches of rain. Mostly above-normal precipitation is favored during the 6-14 day (extended-range) period. The Weeks 3-4 and updated June precipitation outlooks favor either EC (Equal Chances of below or above-normal precipitation) or above-normal precipitation, primarily in Kansas and Nebraska. Despite the relatively wet conditions expected for a few locales in the High Plains in June (such as northeastern Colorado and Kansas), most of the region is expected to see drought persistence.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



The majority of this region remains free of dryness and drought at this time, due to frequent mid-level troughs upstream over the Interior West and related development of low pressure systems over the area, and stalled baroclinic zones. However, approximately the southwestern half of Texas has largely missed out on the heavier precipitation of recent weeks, with conditions closer to normal during the past 90 days. The CPC Leaky Bucket soil moisture model (which looks at a soil column down to 1.6 meters deep) shows percentiles range within the lowest one-third of the historical distribution across this region, with percentiles in the lowest 1-2 percent near the Rio Grande Valley. However, SPoRT soil moisture (which looks at the top 15 inches of soil) is closer to normal, reflecting the shallower, short-term improvements in soil conditions compared to CPC's full-column Leaky Bucket. During the past 28-days, streamflow values have been within the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. The updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for June favor above normal temperatures and Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal precipitation over the southwestern half of Texas suggesting persistence of current drought conditions. The Texas coast is particularly vulnerable to the influence of early season Atlantic tropical cyclones, but for the time being, there are no indications of any specific system influencing Texas.



Forecast confidence is considered high for inland Texas, but low for coastal Texas.



According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, about 36.5 percent of the Midwest region is currently experiencing abnormal dryness (D0) and drought (D1-D4). However, when just drought is considered, that percentage shrinks to about 9.5 percent. During the past 30 days, precipitation deficits ranged from 1-3 inches over Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois, and much of Wisconsin and Indiana. Soil moisture percentiles (SPoRT-LIS, 0-40 cm and the CPC Leaky Bucket soil moisture down to 1.6 meters) are currently within the lowest 30 percent of the historical distribution in parts of this region. During the past 28-days, CPC streamflow values have been within the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. CPC's updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for June favor warmer-than-normal mean temperatures and mostly EC for precipitation, with the anomalous warmth favoring increased evapotranspiration. During the summer, the Midwest often receives beneficial rains from organized thunderstorm clusters (MCS) which typically travel near the southern edge of the westerlies. Trying to predict the exact tracks, however, at this time range is very difficult. Therefore, persistence of drought is favored.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



Drought coverage has been largely focused over coastal portions of the Southeast region this spring, including much of Florida. Streamflows in northern and central Florida during the past 28 days have been within the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. In the past two weeks, several mid-level troughs and accompanying low pressure systems brought significant rainfall to the Southeast region, helping to ease drought conditions. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 48 percent of the Sunshine State is currently experiencing drought, and when abnormal dryness is included that number rises to about 79 percent. Extreme drought (D3) conditions are ongoing across southwestern portions of Florida. As the Sunshine State transitions from its climatological dry to rainy season in late May and early June, the sea breeze convergence regime is likely to gradually become established over the state. June is typically a time when both rainfall and lightning activity ramp up across the state. Relatively warm and wet conditions are predicted across the Southeast in June, aiding in the improvement and/or removal of drought. Climatologically, tropical cyclones tend to originate in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and Bahamas region during June, providing another physical mechanism for potentially improving and/or removing the drought across the Southeast.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



Most of the Northeast region is free of drought, with the main exception being over parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and West Virginia (the other lingering drought area is over Cape Cod, MA). Within the primary drought region, severe drought (D2) lingers over Maryland, with a sizable area of moderate drought (D1) surrounding it. This is largely due to longer-term precipitation deficits that extend back 6-12 months or longer. These longer-term deficits are related to lower stream flows and reduced groundwater availability. Passing storm systems that bring substantial rainfall may bring significant improvement in the short-term (i.e., may be reflected in agriculture and surface water supply), but increased precipitation over a longer period is generally required to erase any long-term hydrological deficits. Over the next few days, several passing fronts and associated waves of low pressure are forecast to bring 1.5-2.0 inches of rain to the drought area. Precipitation for various time-scales throughout the month of June favor near to above-normal precipitation, and for the longer-ranges EC, but not below-normal. Therefore, improvement and/or removal of drought is favored for the Northeast.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate.



There is currently no drought in the state of Alaska, and none is predicted to develop in June.



Forecast confidence is considered high.



Given ENSO-neutral conditions and the fact that Hawaii has transitioned from its climatological wet to dry season, most of the island chain is expected to see a continuation of drought conditions, especially leeward areas. Trade wind showers are expected along the windward slopes of the main islands, while leeward slopes are favored to be on the dry side.



Forecast confidence is moderate.



With the climatological rainy season now in progress, and the traditional start of the Atlantic hurricane season now here (June 1st), there is no expectation of drought for the foreseeable future. In the absence of a strong signal to the contrary, Puerto Rico is expected to remain free of drought.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



Considerations that apply to Puerto Rico also apply to the USVI area. Accordingly, no drought development is foreseen at this time.



Forecast confidence is considered moderate to high.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT