Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for July, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on June 17, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



During June, drought conditions in the West region were a mixed bag with drought deterioration (1-2 class degradation) and expansion across much of the northwestern quarter of the CONUS., while improvement was observed across parts of the remaining west region. Looking ahead, the CPC monthly outlooks forecast drier conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies, and equal chances (EC, above-near-below normal) precipitation across much of remainder of the West, coupled with a general dry climatology and near to above normal temperatures across much of the region. Therefore, persistence is forecast for the existing drought across much of the West, with potential drought expansion likely over these abnormal dry (D0) areas. One exception over the West region is the core monsoon area in the Southwest. Some improvement is favored due to a forecast healthy Monsoon rainfall in the next two weeks and CPC monthly outlook calling for slightly above-normal precipitation across the area coupled with a climatological wet month and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the northern half of the Western Region and low across the monsoon region.



During June the High Plains region continued to be a battleground for drought. Reduction (1-3 class improvement) was observed across much of the High Plains region due to beneficial rainfall received, while 1-2 class degradation was seen across southwestern Wyoming and adjacent Colorado, and northeastern North Dakota caused by precipitation deficit. Looking ahead to July, much of the High Plains region is in its climatological wet season. The WPC forecasts 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation across parts of the region in the next 7 days. The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day extended-range forecasts favor slightly above normal precipitation across much of the region plus heavy rainfall received during the past week. Removal/improvement is likely for parts of the southeastern portions of the region. However, the CPC Week 3-4 and monthly outlooks both favor below-normal precipitation across parts of the region coupled with above-normal temperatures. Therefore, persistence is the most likely outcome for the existing remaining drought across the region for July with drought expansion likely for parts of these currently abnormal dry areas in northwestern Wyoming and newly removed drought over North Dakota and Nebraska may come back due to predicted below normal precipitation for July.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.



Periodic beneficial heavy precipitation across western Oklahoma and southern Texas brought widespread drought amelioration (1 to 3 class improvement) in the past month. Looking ahead, the WPC and CPC forecasts predict slightly wet signals across the region and the CPC monthly outlooks favor EC or above-normal precipitation across much of the Southern region. Therefore, persistence is favored for the existing drought over Texas with some improvement likely over parts of western Texas due to forecasts favoring a wet Monsoon pattern and potential development over parts of southern Texas due to predicted below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern region.



The Midwest region is also a mixed bag for the drought. During the past month, periodic heavy precipitation continued to bring some widespread relief (1-2 class improvement) across the Midwest. However, some deterioration was also seen across parts of the region due to precipitation deficits. Looking into the next week, the WPC forecasts 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across parts of the Midwest region. The CPC monthly outlooks favor slightly below normal precipitation in western portions of the region, EC of precipitation across the central and northern parts of the region and slightly above normal precipitation in southeastern portions of the region. Therefore, persistence is favored for the existing drought over Minnesota. Removal is expected for the existing drought over Iowa and the Great Lakes region with drought potentially coming back to the vicinity of western Iowa.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest region.



During June, continued drought amelioration (1 to 3 class improvement) was observed over parts of the Southeast region due to beneficial periodic heavy rainfall across the region, with deterioration also seen over several small areas in the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula. Looking ahead, the WPC forecasts 1 to locally 10 inches of precipitation across much of the Southeast region. The CPC extended range and monthly outlooks predict wetter than normal conditions across much of the region. The coastal region and Florida Peninsula recently transitioned to their rainy season. Therefore, improvement/removal is favored for the existing drought across the region for July.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast region.



Continued drought reduction (1-2 class improvement) was observed across the southeastern parts of the Northeast region during June, benefiting from periodic storm systems that moved across the region and brought widespread precipitation. The WPC forecasts 1 to 1.5inches of rainfall across the region in the next 7 days, while both the CPC extended-range and monthly outlooks favor above-normal precipitation across much of the Northeast region. Therefore, removal is the most likely outcome for the existing drought conditions across the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast region.



During the past week, a small drought area and some anomalous dry (D0) quickly developed across parts of central mainland Alaska due to rainfall deficit. Looking ahead, both of the CPC extended range forecasts and monthly outlooks predict slightly above-normal or EC precipitation across most of the state, coupled with a wet climatology across much of the state. Removal is the most likely outcome for the existing drought.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Abnormally dry conditions continued across much of the Islands during the past month. The region is in its climatological dry season, and the CPC's monthly outlook favors below-normal precipitation across much of the Islands. Therefore, persistence is the most likely outcome with some potential development over the Leeward sides of the Islands.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



No drought is currently in place across Puerto Rico. The dynamical forecasts across the Caribbean region favor slightly below-normal precipitation. The region is now in its rainy season. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop during July.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Puerto Rico.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands, and the same climate signals factoring into the forecast for Puerto Rico also apply to the Virgin Islands. No drought is anticipated to develop during July.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT