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HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion
 
Discussion for the Monthly Drought Outlook
 

Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for March, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. El Niño conditions remain present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though the atmospheric response is beginning to wane and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is favored to be active during much of the month. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on February 27, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



Drought conditions currently cover just over a quarter of the Western Region, with the greatest impacts observed across the southern Four Corners region and the Northern Rockies. While atmospheric river events during February brought some spotty drought relief to the Four Corners states, below-normal precipitation along with periods of above-normal temperatures caused some expansion of drought across the Northwest, particularly along the Cascades and Olympic ranges, where snowpack conditions are much below average for the time of year. Snowpack conditions are below average along the southern Sierra Nevadas as well, with precipitation that impacted southern California mostly passing to the south into the lower Great Basin. Drought conditions have also begun to develop east of the Rockies, where snow cover is almost non-existent and soils have prematurely thawed. During the first week of March, a series of Pacific storms are forecast to bring copious moisture to the West Coast, western ranges, and the northern Rockies. Below average temperatures accompanying this precipitation should help boost mountain snowpacks. While helpful, it is uncertain whether this late season moisture will be able to overcome the large antecedent deficits. A transition to a drier pattern across the Northwest is favored by mid-month, and the revised monthly precipitation outlook maintains equal chances for near-, below-, and above-normal precipitation along the northern tier. Therefore, drought persistence remains the most likely outcome across the Western Region. Additional development across northern Montana is possible, as winter wheat breaking dormancy early may add to evapotranspirative demands.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.



During February, unusually warm temperatures coupled with much below-average snowpack conditions resulted in some drought expansion across Wyoming and the Dakotas. In contrast, periods of above-average precipitation locally eased ongoing drought conditions across Colorado and Kansas. March typically remains a dry time of year across the High Plains Region, although periods of increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico can generate higher precipitation events with early Spring storms. Mostly dry conditions are favored across the High Plains during the first week of March, although a low pressure system is favored to bring a period of snow to the northern tier, with liquid equivalents around 0.5 inches. Above-average temperatures are favored to return by Week-2, which will erode the resulting snowpack. The updated monthly precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the High Plains region, with equal chances maintained across North Dakota. Based on the monthly precipitation outlook, some continued drought improvements are possible across Kansas and Nebraska, with uncertainty higher for March across the higher elevations of Colorado, where drought conditions depend more on snowpack conditions and spring melting. Persistence is favored along the northern tier, with some further development possible across northwestern North Dakota.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains Region.



Across the Southern Region, drought conditions expanded across portions of the Big Bend and Hill Country regions of Texas, as storm systems forming to the east generated periods of strong winds. Across North Texas, the Smokehouse Creek wildfire has become the largest in state history, spreading into western Oklahoma as well. In contrast, unusually intense Fall drought conditions along the lower Mississippi Valley continued to ease during February, though some abnormal dryness returned to far southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. During March, forecasts at all time scales favor a wet pattern extending from far eastern Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley and into Tennessee. These forecasts strongly favor further drought reductions. To the west, a drier pattern is favored, and with a continuation of periods of strong winds and above-average temperatures possible, keeping evapotranspiration rates high, drought development is possible for portions of central and western Texas.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.



Drought conditions have steadily expanded across the Midwest Region during February, due to persistent much above-normal temperatures and below-average snow cover. Soils across the region are thawed, which is unusual for the time of year, and has resulted in premature crop development and increased evaporative demands on the soils. Nearly 34 percent of the region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and abnormal dryness covers another 40 percent of the Midwest, making the region extremely vulnerable to additional drought development. During the first week of March, mostly light precipitation is favored along the Mississippi Valley, with higher amounts possible for the Ohio River Valley, where drought and dryness are less prevalent. The Week-2 outlook from CPC favors above-average precipitation across the region, and the updated monthly outlook favors above-average precipitation for parts of Missouri, Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota. Climatological precipitation begins to increase in March across the southern portions of the Midwest, particularly along the Ohio River Valley. This improves prospects for drought reductions across Missouri. While it is possible that the precipitation favored to fall during March would be sufficient to slow the advance of drought conditions across the upper Midwest, the above-average temperatures favored during the period will keep snow cover low and evaporative demands high. Any locations that miss out on precipitation could quickly have degrading drought impacts. Therefore, improvements are favored for Missouri and western Iowa, where the monthly outlook is most favorable and climatological precipitation increases. In contrast, further drought expansion is forecast for portions of the upper Midwest.



Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.



Very little drought is currently in place across the Southeast Region. On the latest USDM released on 29 February, an area of moderate drought developed across far eastern North Carolina, where drier conditions have prevailed during February. A wetter pattern is favored for March, with forecasts at all time scales depicting above-normal precipitation. Therefore, this new drought area will potentially be short lived, and drought removal is indicated on this outlook.



Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.



Across the Northeast, only a small area of moderate drought exists across western New York. Drought development during March is not currently favored, with light precipitation early in the month likely staving off further degradations in western New York. Above-average precipitation is favored for the mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Across northern New England, snow cover is much below average, which may present a concern for drought later in the Spring months. Widespread drought development during March, however, is unlikely.



Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.



No drought is currently in place or favored to develop across Alaska during March.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Across Hawaii, a small area of moderate drought remains entrenched across the interior of the northern Big Island. Abnormal dryness has gradually increased across the entire island chain, and with trade winds becoming stronger as El Niño conditions start to wane, further development is possible in March along the leeward sides of the islands where conditions are already abnormally dry.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii.



Recent forecasts from the NMME depict a potential for above average precipitation in the vicinity of Puerto Rico, despite the drier signal across the remainder of the Caribbean region that is typical during El Niño events. March is a relatively dry time of year for Puerto Rico; therefore, while no drought development is indicated, persistence of existing areas of moderate drought appears to be the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, March is a dry time of year for the US Virgin Islands, so while the NMME depicts a somewhat wet signal, substantial changes to the current drought depiction are not anticipated.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

 


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