Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for April, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on March 18, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



Precipitation generally averaged at or above-normal for the water year to date (WYTD), October 1, 2024 to March 30, 2025, across northern California and the Pacific Northwest which is mostly drought-free. However, lower precipitation amounts and associated snowfall resulted in drought continuing across portions of Washington, including the northern Cascades. Given the below average snow water equivalent values, only light precipitation (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent), and near to below-normal precipitation favored during the second week of April, persistence is forecast for Washington. Since the updated April outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation and there is no sign of any heavy precipitation early in the month, broad-scale persistence is forecast for Idaho and Montana.



Persistence is also forecast for the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern California as April is the start of the drier time of year. Although northern New Mexico is forecast to receive beneficial precipitation during the first week of April, drought improvement is not expected due to the low snow water equivalent values. The wet start to April is expected to slow any drought development across northeastern New Mexico.



Forecast confidence is high for the West Region.



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor on March 25, moderate (D1), severe (D2), or extreme (D3) drought are currently designated for a majority of the Northern to Central Great Plains. At the beginning of April, a strengthening low pressure system is forecast to bring rain and snow (more than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent to the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. Due to uncertainty on how much precipitation occurs and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation in the updated April outlook, persistence is forecast for these areas. From late February to late March, a 2-category degradation (drought-free to moderate drought) was made to southwestern and south-central Kansas. Given that the heaviest precipitation is forecast across Oklahoma and Texas during the first week of April and below normal precipitation is favored during the second week of April, persistence is forecast for Kansas and western Nebraska. It should be noted that late April is an increasingly wet time of year for the Central Great Plains but high uncertainty exists on precipitation with the latest week 3-4 GEFS and ECENS depicting neither a strong wet or dry signal from April 15 to 28. Broad-scale persistence is also the most likely outcome for Colorado and Wyoming with the heaviest early April precipitation forecast to occur outside of ongoing drought areas.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



During mid-March, leeside cyclogenesis resulted in a couple of intensifying low pressure systems with strong winds and blowing dust affecting eastern New Mexico along western parts of Oklahoma and Texas. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor from late February to late March, a widespread 1-category degradation was made to nearly all of New Mexico, northwestern Oklahoma, and much of Texas. Recent heavy precipitation (more than 2 inches) supports drought improvement for parts of southern Texas. Small areas of removal are forecast for northern Texas and northeastern Oklahoma which are forecast to receive heavy precipitation early in April. Elsewhere across Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, persistence is more likely due to lower predicted precipitation amounts early in the month and the updated April outlook calling for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation or leaning on the dry side. Drought improvement or removal are forecast for the small areas of drought designated for northwestern Arkansas and Tennessee based on heavy precipitation during the first week of April.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



Drought coverage decreased from the late winter into the early spring for most of the Midwest. During the first week of April, a stationary front is forecast to become the focus for widespread heavy precipitation (2 to 8 inches, locally more) from southern Missouri northeastward to the Ohio Valley. This heavy precipitation supports improvement or removal for southwestern Missouri, east-central Illinois, and Indiana. Although precipitation amounts are forecast to be less (1.5 inches or lower) across southern Michigan, this precipitation to start April along with recent beneficial precipitation favor improvement or removal for that area. Based on observed precipitation during late March and forecast precipitation to start April, drought removal is forecast for portions of southern Minnesota. Elsewhere throughout the Upper Mississippi Valley, broad-scale persistence is more likely due to the absence of a clear wet signal at any time scale.



Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.



Drought coverage varies across the Southeast and is mostly designated as moderate (D1) with several pockets of severe (D2) in parts of central to south Florida. Persistence is favored for a majority of the ongoing drought as the heaviest precipitation, early in the month, is forecast to the west of the Appalachians and there is no clear wet signal during the remainder of April. With the WPC 7-day qpf depicting more than 2 inches of precipitation, small areas of removal are forecast for parts of northwestern and southwestern Georgia. Persistence is likely for Florida as the updated April outlook favors below-normal precipitation. Development is most likely to the north of Lake Okeechobee where 30-day precipitation deficits exceed 2 inches.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Drought continues from New England southward to the Mid-Atlantic with recent expansion westward to West Virginia. 28-day average streamflows are running below the 10th percentile for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians. Closer to the Atlantic coast, 30-day precipitation has generally averaged at or above-normal from Delaware and southern New Jersey northward to New England. A variable precipitation pattern is forecast during April and the updated April outlook calls for equal chances for below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Improvement or removal are forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic (near and east of I-95) that are most likely to receive heavy precipitation on March 31. It should be noted that this is a low confidence forecast since any areas that miss out on the heavier precipitation on March 31st could see drought continuing into late April. Based on recent beneficial precipitation and equal chances for below, near, or above-normal precipitation during a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, removal is forecast for New York and New England.



Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.



Alaska is currently drought-free although there is abnormal dryness (D0) designated for portions of southern Alaska. Although the updated April outlook calls for increased below-normal precipitation chances for southwestern Alaska, it is unlikely that any drought develops by the end of April.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Although the NMME favors above-normal precipitation for Hawaii, persistence is favored especially for the leeward side of the islands. Drought removal is most likely along the windward side of the Big Island.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Puerto Rico is expected to remain drought-free through the end of April due to antecedent wetness (28-day average streamflows above the 75th percentile). In addition, the GEFS and ECENS favor near to above-normal precipitation during the first two weeks of April.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Although short-term dryness recently developed across St John and St Thomas, those islands along with St Croix are expected to remain drought-free through the end of April. This is due to the forecast of near to above-normal precipitation during early to mid-April.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: April 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT