Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for November, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on October 29, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



Drought removal is most likely for southwestern Oregon where the heaviest precipitation (more than 2 inches) is forecast during the first week of November. Although the updated November outlook leans towards above-normal precipitation for the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West, broad-scale persistence is expected as these areas have a longer term drought and any improvement is more likely beyond the end of November. Since November is a drier time of year for the Southwest, persistence is also forecast for this region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West Region.



A very dry late summer and fall along with periods of unseasonably warm temperatures have led to drought expansion and intensification across the northern to central Great Plains. 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 4 inches across eastern Kansas, central to eastern Nebraska, and southeastern South Dakota. An amplifying 500-hPa trough is forecast to result in widespread precipitation for the eastern Great Plains. Improvement and removal are generally forecast where the WPC 7-day qpf depicts more than 2 inches of precipitation. Although the updated November outlook lean towards above-normal precipitation farther to the west across central Nebraska, western Kansas, and southeastern Colorado, broad-scale persistence is more likely due to lower precipitation amounts during early November and a drier climatology. Persistence is forecast for the Dakotas where November precipitation during a drier time of year is unlikely to result in any widespread improvements.



Forecast confidence is high for the High Plains Region.



Little to no rainfall occurred during October with 30-day deficits exceeding 4 inches across Arkansas, Louisiana, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. The very dry October along with above-normal temperatures led to drought expansion and intensification across the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Great Plains. The drought coverage and intensity may be temporarily peaking as early November is forecast to be much wetter and cooler. The Weather Prediction Center's 7-day forecast depicts a widespread area of more than 1 inch of precipitation for much of the region with more than 3 inches forecast across Oklahoma (excluding the Panhandle) and northwestern Arkansas. Removal or improvement are generally depicted where precipitation amounts are forecast to exceed 1.5 to 2 inches during the next week. Although the updated November outlook has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation throughout the southern Great Plains, persistence is forecast for areas of Texas where 7-day precipitation amounts are lower than 1.5 inches and/or there is longer term drought.



Forecast confidence is high for the South Region.



Drought expanded and intensified across the Great Lakes and Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley during October. 30-day precipitation deficits are running near or more than 2 inches for much of the Midwest. However, a major pattern change is underway as a 500-hPa trough amplifies upstream over the West. On October 30, much of Iowa, Missouri, and southern Wisconsin received more than 1 inch of precipitation. During the first week of November, additional heavy precipitation is forecast across much of the Midwest. Improvement and removal are generally forecast where the WPC 7-day qpf depicts more than 2 inches of precipitation and the updated November outlook favors above-normal precipitation. In areas where precipitation during early November is expected to be lower including northwestern Iowa along with portions of Minnesota and Ohio, persistence is more likely.



Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.



Little to no precipitation fell throughout much of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas after the heavy rainfall associated with Helene more than one month ago. Since dry weather is likely to persist through at least early November, development is favored for portions of the Southeast where abnormal dryness exists and soil moisture continues to decline. 30-day precipitation deficits along with the NASA SPoRT soil moisture (0-40cm) were used as a guide for designating areas of development. Antecedent wetness precludes development across the Florida Peninsula. Farther to the north, a swath of heavier rainfall occurred across portions of Virginia but overall October precipitation averaged below-normal for the state. Without a wet signal early in the month and given the increasing precipitation deficits, persistence and development are forecast for parts of eastern and northern Virginia.



Although development is favored early in the month across much of the Southeast, the duration of any short-term moderate drought is more uncertain. This is related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation propagating eastward over the Western Hemisphere which increases the chance of a late season tropical cyclone emerging from the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Also, the southern stream may briefly become more active with enhanced moisture. Therefore, forecast confidence is low for development.



Forecast confidence is low for the Southeast Region.



Drought coverage expanded across the Mid-Atlantic and New England where 30-day precipitation deficits are 3 to 5 inches. For Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, October 29 was the 31st consecutive day without measurable precipitation, besting the prior record of 29 days established in 1874. Based on a dry start to November and consistent with the updated November outlook favoring below-normal precipitation, drought persistence and additional development is forecast for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Farther to the west, severe to exceptional drought continues across southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Due to the lack of a wet signal among the precipitation tools, persistence is forecast for the Central Appalachians.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



Based on the time of year and consistent with the updated November outlook, Alaska is likely to remain drought-free through the end of November.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Although moderate short-term drought recently expanded throughout much of the Big Island and eastern Maui, removal or improvement is forecast by the end of November. This forecast is generally based on an expected increase in rainfall during early November and also Hawaii trends towards its wet season. However, forecast confidence is low since the North American Multi-Model Ensemble has a weak precipitation signal for the month.



Forecast confidence is low for Hawaii.



Although 30-day precipitation averaged below-normal across most of the eastern half of Puerto Rico, drought development is not anticipated. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during early November which would favor an increase in rainfall. The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means depict several inches of rainfall during the next two weeks.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



The U.S. Virgin Islands are drought-free and given the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during early November, drought development is unlikely.



Forecast confidence is high for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST