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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made July 22, 2019 | About the Hazards Outlook

 Days 8-14Probabilistic Days 8-14
Precipitation No Hazards
Temperature
WindNo HazardsNo Hazards

Categorical Outlooks
 Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Tuesday July 30, 2019 to Monday August 05, 2019

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 22 2019

Synopsis: As we move into the doldrums of summer, mid-level pressure patterns over the country are forecast to be mild, with mostly weak high pressure over the contiguous U.S. Some excessive heat may creep into the Northeast early in the period, but should be gone by mid-week. After a brief respite from the above normal temperatures over Alaska in week-1, they are likely to return to the western portion of the mainland early week-2.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday July 25 - Monday July 29: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday July 30 - Monday August 05: The week-2 time period looks to be fairly quiet over the majority of the country, with mid-level ridging overspreading the lower 48. Upstream, a mid-level trough is likely over western Canada, with another ridging over the northern Pacific through most of week-2. Models show good agreement with the mid-level height pattern through Week-2, though the impacts from this pattern are expected to be minimal.

The mid-level high pressure over the CONUS is expected to be weak over the majority of the country, though it may amplify over the Northeast early in the period. Both the GEFS and ECMWF probabilistic tools indicate a 20-60% chance of temperatures exceeding the 85th climatological percentile over the Northeast, with maximum temperatures forecast to remain around 90 degrees F. However, a plume of moisture is also forecast over the region, which is likely to drive up heat indices near 95 degrees F. A moderate risk of excessive heat is forecast for the northern part of the region, including Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, for July 30-31, where air conditioning is not as widespread and the population is more vulnerable to the impacts of heat waves. A slight risk for excessive heat is highlighted for the wider 20% chance region for July 30-Aug 1.

Late week-1 and early week-2, a brief pause is forecast for Southwest Monsoon activity. The Eastern Pacific basin is showing possible tropical cyclone formation in some models in Week-2, indicating the region is likely to have enhanced convection and moisture early. This enhanced moisture flow out of the eastern Pacific should renew monsoon activity mid-week, and could lead to flash flooding for parts of the Four Corners region for the latter half the period. The majority of the moisture does look like it will be over Arizona, but could stream northward toward central Colorado.

Mid-level low pressure over the Bering Sea is expected to propagate over mainland Alaska in the middle of week-1. This will likely interrupt the persistent above normal temperatures for much of the mainland; however, weak mid-level ridging is expected to fill in behind the propagating trough early in the week-2 period. A slight risk for much above normal temperatures is forecast for the first half of the week, July 30-August 1, but concentrated along the western coast. Toward the end of the period, this ridging is expected to weaken further and troughing may be introduced along the South Coast. This weakly amplified pattern is not expected to produce winds that meet the hazardous threshold along the western coast of Alaska. The return to above normal temperatures will likely continue to exacerbate fire weather conditions over mainland Alaska, with the abundance of available dry fuels. According to the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, over 1.66 million acres have burned statewide (as of July 18th, 2019) since the beginning of the year.

Forecaster: Christina Maurin

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts