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U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made May 16, 2025 | About the Hazards Outlook
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| Composite Map Day 8-14 |
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks |
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Valid Saturday May 24, 2025 to Friday May 30, 2025
US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 16 2025
Synopsis: Multiple ensemble means indicate weaker mid-level high pressure across the West compared to yesterday, with this feature shifted further east and over the High Plains at the beginning of week-2. This translates to only slight risks of excessive heat lingering across portions of the southwestern Contiguous U.S. and Texas. Episodes of high winds are possible across coastal California and portions of Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Warm temperatures combined with dry conditions and gusty winds may elevate wildfire risk across parts of Texas.
Hazards
- Slight risk of excessive heat for parts of the Southwest, Central Great Basin, and the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, May 24-26.
- Slight risk of episodic high winds for parts of California, Sat-Tue, May 24-27.
- Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of Texas and southeastern New Mexico, Sat-Mon, May 24-26.
For Monday May 19 - Friday May 23: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards
For Saturday May 24 - Friday May 30: Compared to yesterday, multiple model means indicate a weaker mid-level ridge across the Interior West and shifted eastward, centered over the High Plains by the beginning of week-2. This translates to decreasing excessive heat signals during this period compared to yesterday. A slight risk of excessive heat is highlighted across parts of the Southwest, Central Great Basin, and the Southern Plains, May 24-26, where the Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile climatologically. Maximum temperatures range from potentially exceeding 90 deg F across the Central Great Basin to greater than 100 deg F across the Desert Southwest. PETs indicate temperatures exceeding 95 deg F across eastern portions of Texas, however, enhanced dewpoints across the region could result in heat index values exceeding triple digits. Additionally, calibrated heat tools show increased chances based on the GEFS (ECENS) indicate chances greater than 50% (20%) of heat index values exceeding the 90th percentile, resulting in this region being included in the heat risk.
Predicted thermal surface low pressure over Baja California and southern California combined with adjacent surface high pressure off the coast of California is anticipated to lead to a tight pressure gradient along the coast. Therefore, a slight risk of episodic high winds is posted for the coast of California, May 24-27. There is good agreement among the GEFS and ECENS PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25 mph across this region.
Surface low pressure is anticipated to remain fairly stationary across eastern New Mexico extending southward into western Texas. This feature may support enhanced wind speeds in the region, supporting a slight risk of episodic high winds across Texas and southeastern New Mexico, May 24-26. Hot temperatures combined with dry conditions and gusty winds increases the risk of wildfires in the region. Additionally, there is increased chances for dry thunderstorms/lightning in this area where a dryline is anticipated, which could initiate wildfire activity.
Subtropical ridging across the southeastern CONUS may promote enhanced onshore flow into the Mississippi Valley, bringing enhanced precipitation and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, especially during the middle of week-2. Daily rainfall totals are not anticipated to reach hazardous criteria, thus an associated precipitation hazard is not designated. Any enhanced rainfall, however, could increase the risk for localized flooding across parts of the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley.
No hazards are issued over Alaska. Warmer than normal springtime temperatures are favored for much of the Mainlande, with a tilt towards above-normal precipitation for the Mainland and Southeast, but nothing approaching hazardous thresholds.
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts