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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made March 04, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

ATTENTION:
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Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Tuesday March 12, 2024 to Monday March 18, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST March 04 2024

Synopsis: Mid-level low pressure is predicted to shift from the western to eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) throughout week-2 which would support a series of surface lows forming over the central CONUS tracking northeastward to the Great Lakes. This pattern supports slight risks for heavy snow in higher elevations of the Interior West initially to heavy precipitation across the southeastern CONUS during the middle of the period in addition to high winds accompanying the tracking surface lows.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday March 07 - Monday March 11: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday March 12 - Monday March 18: There is relatively good agreement among model ensemble means indicating mid-level troughing across the western CONUS shifting to the East throughout week-2. There is, however, significant disagreement regarding the location of the trough axis, with the ECENS favoring it closer to the coast and the GEFS further inland by day 8. This translates to the ECENS showing greater chances for heavy precipitation lingering across the North Pacific and northern California from the end of week-1 into the onset of week-2, whereas the GEFS does not. Due to these significant model differences and the anticipation that even if heavy precipitation lingers into week-2, it would be brief, the associated hazard risks are discontinued in today’s outlook for the West Coast. A slight risk of heavy snow continues for higher elevations of the Northern and Central Rockies and Great Basin, Mar 12-14, where the GEFS probabilistic extremes tool (PET) shows at least a 20% chance of 3-day liquid equivalent exceeding the 85th percentile and half an inch (one inch locally) and uncalibrated ECENS ensemble shows the potential of areas receiving 4 to 6 inches of snow.

As the mid-level trough shifts eastward over time, a series of surface lows are predicted to form over the south-central CONUS and track northeastward to the Great Lakes. These disturbances may be accompanied by enhanced winds and precipitation. A slight risk of high winds is designated for the Central and Southern Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes for the middle of the period (Mar 12-14). PETs show at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph across the Central and Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Gusty winds may exacerbate wildfire risk where there are already ongoing wildfires, especially in the Texas Panhandle where there is a large fire in the Smokehouse Creek area that is only 15% contained.

Enhanced moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with the aforementioned surface lows tracking across the Southern Plains to Great Lakes supports a slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the southeastern CONUS during the middle of week-2 (Mar 14-16). There is good agreement among the PETs showing at least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch.

For Alaska, there is good model agreement indicating a transition in the mid-level height pattern from troughing across the state at the beginning of week-2 to ridging towards the latter portion. A series of surface lows are predicted for the Gulf of Alaska, although no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. There are indications in the PETs for anomalous cold to potentially linger from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2, with decreasing chances throughout the period due to cold Arctic air receding northward over time. Due to PETs not indicating temperatures falling to hazardous criteria no associated hazards are designated at this time.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts