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Composite Map
Day 8-14
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks
Valid Saturday July 26, 2025 to Friday August 01, 2025
US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM
EDT July 18 2025
Synopsis: Mid-level high pressure is predicted
across much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) excluding the West Coast early
week-2, amplifying into the interior West as the week progresses. This
translates to increased chances for extreme heat for many areas east of the
Rockies, and in the Southwest. Many of these areas could experience heat index
values exceeding triple digits (deg F), with the heat threat waning in the
Southeast after the first few days. Possible surface low formation over the
Gulf of America increases the likelihood for heavy precipitation in part of the
central Gulf Coast at the beginning of the period. Around the periphery of the
amplifying mid-level ridge, periods of localized heavy showers and
thunderstorms may affect areas from the northern High Plains through the
western Great Lakes Region through mid-week. A sharp surface pressure gradient
along part of the southern California coast is expected to bring an elevated
risk of high winds there until mid-week. Dry soils and anticipated dry, hot
conditions support a risk of Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) over Kansas.
Hazards
High risk of extreme heat for portions of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 26-28.
Moderate risk of extreme heat for parts of the Southeast, Sat-Sun, Jul
26-27.
Moderate risk of extreme heat for many areas from the High Plains to near
the Appalachians, Sat-Fri, Jul 26-Aug 1.
Slight risk of extreme heat for a large part of the central and
southwestern CONUS, Sat-Fri, Jul 26-Aug 1.
Slight risk of extreme heat in parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic,
Sat-Mon, Jul 26-28.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Central Gulf Coast, Fri-Sat, Jul
25-26.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation from the Northern Plains through the
western Great Lakes, Sat-Tue, Jul 26-29.
For Saturday July 26 - Friday
August 01: The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE all show an evolving mid-level
pattern featuring a relatively flat mid-level ridge across much of the CONUS
from the Rockies eastward at the start of week-2. This feature amplifies
westward, peaking in strength over the central CONUS mid-week before settling
into the Rockies by the end of the period. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough near
the West Coast slowly deamplifies, and another mid-level trough digs southward
along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern enhances the risk of extreme heat for
areas east of the Rockies and the Desert Southwest, with the focus of extreme
heat pushing westward with time. A high risk of extreme heat (>60% chance) is
designated for portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and the
central and southern Great Plains, Jul 26-28. A broad area is highlighted with
a moderate risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat for many areas from the Great
Plains eastward through the Mississippi, Tennessee, and lower Ohio Valleys
throughout week-2. With high dewpoints expected, heat index values are expected
to exceed the 90th percentile compared to climatology and triple digits deg F.
Farther east, the heat risk wanes by mid-week as the mid-level trough builds
southward along the Eastern Seaboard. A moderate risk of extreme heat is posted
in parts of the Southeast Jul 26-27 while a slight risk extends northward
across much of the Mid-Atlantic through Jul 28. The National Blend of Models
(NBM) show near record daytime temperatures over the Tennessee Valley and near
record nighttime temperatures across many areas across the East.
Surface low formation is possible over the Gulf of America at the beginning
of week-2 that could support areas of heavy precipitation along the Gulf Coast.
A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for the central Gulf Coast, Jul
26-27. Guidance is not as bullish with this feature as yesterday, and the
Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) no longer indicate a 20% chance of 3-day
rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile. The reduced heavy precipitation signal
in the guidance led to the removal of the increased flooding risk that had
covered the area.
Further north, shower and thunderstorm activity along the northern
periphery of the mid-level ridge could bring localized heavy rainfall to
portions of the north-central CONUS. The slight risk area has again expanded
westward to include the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and western
Great Lakes for Jul 26-29 before the mid-level ridge axis moves west of these
areas.
The PETs all highlight at least a 20 percent chance for high winds above
the 85th climatological percentile and 25 mph early week-2 along part of the
central and southern California coastline. This prompted the posting of a
slight risk of high winds along part of the southern California coastline until
mid-week. Thereafter, the PETs become less consistent with the placement and
intensity of potentially high winds, if any, so the slight risk ends at that
time.
Anomalous dry soils and expected hot, dry conditions supports a risk of
Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) for parts of Kansas.
Forecaster: Rich
Tinker
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
www.nws.noaa.gov
