PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 
300 PM EST THU FEB 28 2019 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2019 
 
THE CLIMATIC BACKGROUND STATE STILL FEATURES AN ON GOING EL NINO.  THE 
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS LIKELY TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN DURING 
THE FIRST WEEK TO 10 DAYS, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SWITCH TOWARD WARMER IN THE 
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MONTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-MONTH PATTERN CHANGE IS 
INDICATED IN SOME MODELS, SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN AREAS WHERE THE PATTERN 
CHANGE WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS. 
 
FOR THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE AXIS OF THE COLDEST AIR FORECAST EARLY MONTH 
IS PREDICTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN IN THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK.  THE 
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NOW STRETCH FROM THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
WHERE EARLY MONTH AND WEEK3/4 OUTLOOKS ALL TILT COLD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
CHANGED TO A COLDER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE 
MONTH, SO THE UPDATED OUTLOOK REFLECTS THAT CHANGE.  LATER MONTH GUIDANCE HAS 
SOME MODERATION INDICATED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THOSE REGIONS, SO PROBABILITIES 
REMAIN LOW TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED 
FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST WHERE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE 
NEAR-SHORE WATERS IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. 
 
EARLY IN THE MONTH, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EAST 
TO THE THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. IF THE CURRENT 7-DAY QPF OUTLOOKS 
VERIFY, MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RECEIVE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION IN THE 
FIRST 7 DAYS OF THE MONTH TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POSSIBILITIES FOR BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CFS DEPICTS A PATTERN FLIP TO A DRIER PATTERN ACROSS 
THE WEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF MARCH. A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ALTANTIC AND SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, IMPLYING THE MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ACTIVE STORM 
TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE COLD AIR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE MONTH. 
WESTERN ALASKA SHOULD START OFF THE MONTH WET, WHILE THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS 
LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH A MID-MONTH FLIP TOWARD A WETTER THAN NORMAL 
PATTERN INDICATED IN THE CFS AND JMA FOR WEEK3/4. THE FORECAST MORE HEAVILY 
REFLECTS THE EARLY MONTH GUIDANCE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE REMAIN MODEST. 
 
******************** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ********************** 
 
 
THE MARCH 2019 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED BY 
REVIEWING SELECT RECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SUCH ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER, 
COHERENT SUBSEASONAL TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL VARIABILITY INCLUDING THE MJO 
AND EXTENDED-RANGE, SUBSEASONAL AND MONTHLY INTEGRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE. ALSO, IN SOME AREAS LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE UTILIZED. EL 
NINO CONDITIONS WERE NOT HEAVILY CONSIDERED FOR MARCH OUTLOOKS. 
 
THERE ARE HIGH ODDS FOR AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH 
AMERICA AT THE START OF MARCH WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK STRETCHING ACROSS 
ALASKA TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 
HUDSON BAY EXTENDING TO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 10 
DAYS OF THE MONTH. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE SYSTEMS 
AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK 2-4 PERIOD (FIRST 3 WEEKS OF MARCH), ALTHOUGH THERE 
REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS 
ACROSS THE CONUS ESPECIALLY ENTERING WEEK 3. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE SIMILAR TO 
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE EXTENDED-RANGE AND 
SUBSEASONAL FORECASTS FROM NCEP (GEFS AND CFS) ARE MORE EASTWARD SHIFTED THEN 
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD, AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. 
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE PLACEMENT AND WEST-EAST SLOPE OF 
THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND RESULTS IN SOME 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MEAN STORM TRACK IN THIS 
REGION. 
 
THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FROM MONTANA TO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS CORRESPONDING 
TO THE GENERAL CONVERGENCE OF FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS TIME SCALES FOR THE 
LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE MONTH AS A WHOLE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR 
THIS COMES FROM THE MJO WHERE SUBSEQUENT PHASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS 
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN 
TIME. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR A REGION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST 
WHERE LONG TERM POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OFFSET FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MONTH. 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND 
EASTWARD SEABOARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE MORE WESTWARD SHIFTED AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF 
SOLUTION DURING WEEKS 2-4, THE TENDENCY FOR THIS OUTCOME IN RECENT WEEKS AND 
POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE MONTH ASSOCIATED WITH MJO 
FAVORED RIDGE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 
 
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE MARCH OUTLOOK DEPICTS LOW FORECAST COVERAGE AT THIS 
TIME. IT IS EXPECTED WHEN THE OUTLOOK IS UPDATED AND RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 28, 
2019, THERE WILL BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS 
MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A FAVORED WET PATTERN 
FOR THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH 
AND SUPPORTED BY SUBSEASONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS AND ECMWF MODELING 
SYSTEMS. THE MJO ALSO SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH. 
 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF 
NORTHWEST ALASKA, BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMAIN THE FORECAST AT THE 
CURRENT TIME IS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER ABOVE-, NEAR- OR 
BELOW-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION OR "EQUAL CHANCES" (EC). THIS IS DUE 
TO CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY ACROSS THE VARIOUS TIME SCALES, CONFLICTING SIGNALS 
FROM MODELING SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST TOOLS. DESPITE THE EC FORECAST IN 
MANY OF THESE AREAS, THERE WAS SOME SUPPORT FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 
A REGION FROM THE UPPER-MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF THE MEAN 
WEEKS 2-4 EAST-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO 
DESIGNATE A HIGHLIGHTED AREA. MOREOVER, EARLY IN THE MONTH THERE ARE SOME 
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IMPACTING 
CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT SIMILARLY THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS 
QUITE LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO WEAK SIGNALS AND CONFLICTING FORECAST 
TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS 
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING 
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES 
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT 
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. 
 
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR APR ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU MAR 21 2019 
 
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. 
$$