Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jul 12 2025-Fri Jul 25 2025

This week's forecasts rely largely on the dynamical forecast models with additional considerations from soil moisture. The tropical signals (El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation) remain neutral/inactive and regardless exhibit less influence over the temperature and precipitation forecasts this time of year. In the extratropics, the Arctic Oscillation remains actively in the positive phase, which may also bear some impact on the outlooks.

The dynamical models (ECMWF, JMA, and GEFS) are in good agreement regarding the large-scale circulation patterns (500-hPa height anomaly). A manual blend of these models reflects a positive AO-like signal, characterized by negative height anomalies over northern Alaska, Canada, and the Arctic Ocean surrounded by positive height anomalies at middle latitudes. The relevant aspects of this circulation pattern are the positive height anomalies extending across much of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and the Aleutian Islands. While the CFS solution bears less resemblance to the AO, it still indicates positive height anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and New England. Weaknesses in the height anomalies across the Southwest and Southeast vary among the models and are a source of uncertainty regarding the temperature forecasts.

The Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook continues to tilt above normal temperatures throughout the CONUS with highest probabilities over the Northern Rockies and the Northeast under the aforementioned positive height anomalies. Southern Texas also favors warmer than normal temperatures, supported by consistent model guidance and below normal soil moisture content. Equal Chances of above or below normal temperatures are forecast for both the Desert Southwest and several Gulf states. For the former, the models are mixed on the signal of the temperature anomalies for the two week-period. Soil moisture and height anomalies are above normal, typically promoting above normal temperatures. However, monsoon-related precipitation is forecast during the Week-2 period, which often corresponds with below normal temperatures. Model guidance for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, also widely varies between models with no consensus on the temperature signal, hence EC is forecast for those states.

The Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook favors enhanced monsoon related precipitation in the Desert Southwest. Often, an enhanced monsoon is associated with below normal precipitation across the Plains. Model guidance supports a dry signal across the Northern and Southern Plains, but is mixed regarding the Central Plains so EC is forecast there. A broad swath of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic regions favor above normal precipitation aligned with the anticipated baroclinic zone.

Across Alaska, the temperature and precipitation outlooks yield EC for much of the state with the western coast being the primary exception. A tilt toward above normal temperatures is supported by several models as well as considerations from the 30-year mean change. Anomalous onshore flow favors above normal precipitation for the western coast as well as the southeastern portion of the state.

Due to near normal sea surface temperatures and weak dynamical model signals, EC for above or below normal temperatures are forecast for much of the Hawaiian Islands with a slight tilt toward warmer than average temperatures for Lihue. Models converge a little more consistently on a wet signal, particularly for the southeastern islands.

Temperature Precipitation

FCST FCST

Hilo EC EC

Kahului EC A55

Honolulu EC A55

Lihue A55 A60

Forecaster: Laura Ciasto

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jul 04, 2025

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.