Three-month-mean SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific.
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Time evolution of SST anomalies for the Nino3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N)
and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions up to 12 lead month.
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Verification of monthly and seasonal mean SST anomalies for the NINO3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) region (lead month is defined as the time between the time of forecast and the beginning of predicted periods).
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Forecasts of the tropical Pacific SST anomalies
presented here are made with a linear statistical model (Markov model). The
Markov model is constructed in a reduced multivariate EOF space of
sea surface temperature, sea level and wind stress .
The SST field is derived from the NCEP SST analysis (Reynolds and Smith 1994),
the sea level from the NCEP GODAS ocean analysis (Xue and Behringer 2004), and the wind stress from the Florida State University pseudo-wind stress product.
All the data are monthly values averaged in grid boxes of 1.5 degrees in
longitude and 1 degrees in latitude, and cover the tropical Pacific region
within 20 degrees of the equator. The model is trained for the 1980-1995 period, and is built with three multivariate EOFs
in which the anomalous fields of SST, sea level and wind stress are equally weighted.
Verification of cross-validated monthly and seasonal mean SST forecast for the NINO3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) region (lead month is defined as the time between the time of forecast and the beginning of predicted periods).
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Comparison of observations and initial conditions spanned by the first three MEOFs.
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Spatial patterns of the first three MEOFS.
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Principal Components of the first three MEOFS (standardized).
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Hovmoeller plots of SST, sea level and zonal wind stress anomalies at equator.
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Text file of the anomalous monthly SST for the Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the anomalous seasonal SST for the Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the monthly SST for the Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the seasonal SST for the Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Unformatted IEEE data of the SST forecast for the Pacific region.
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Text file of the anomalous monthly SST for the Nino3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N) and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the anomalous seasonal SST for the Nino3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N) and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the monthly SST for the Nino3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N) and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Text files of the seasonal SST for the Nino3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N) and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) regions.
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Unformatted IEEE data of the SST forecast for the Pacific region.
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The Markov model forecasts are published quarterly in Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin . Further details on current conditions of El Nino and El Nino forecasts are found in Climate Diagnostics Bulletin from Climate Prediction Center .
References
Xue, Y., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 2000: ENSO prediction with Markov model: The impact of sea level. J. Climate, 13, 849-871.
Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: a study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus , 46A , 512-528.
Please email your comments to: Dr. Yan.Xue
Go to Yan Xue's home page.
