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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 28th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop > Agenda
 

Program for the 28th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

October 20-23, 2003
Reno Nevada

Co-hosted by: Desert Research Institute (DRI) 

Session 1 Session 2 Session 3 Session 4 Session 5 Session 6 Session 7 Session 8 Session 9 Session 10

Monday October 20, 2003

7:15-8:15 Registration
8:15-8:30 Welcome and Opening Remarks

National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Dr. Arun Kumar, Deputy Director, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Desert Research Institute
Dr. Kent Hoekman, Director, Atmospheric Sciences Division, Desert Research Institute

SESSION 1: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Chairperson: Wayne Higgins

8:30-9:00 EVOLUTION OF THE RECENT ENSO CYCLE
V. Kousky

9:00-9:30 DID THE EL NIÑO OF 2002-03 BREAK THE DROUGHT IN COLORADO OR ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST?
Klaus Wolter

9:30-10:00 CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND THE 2003 WILDFIRE SEASON
Beth Hall

10:00-10:30 ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2003 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
G. Bell and M. Chelliah

SESSION 2: DROUGHT
Chairperson: Kelly Redmond

11:00-11:30 ON THE CAUSES OF THE 1930S DUST BOWL
Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, and Phillip Pegion

11:30-12:00 THE RECENT 4-YEAR DROUGHT: GLOBAL WARMING OR LA NIÑA?
Prashant Sardeshmukh and Gilbert Compo

12:00-12:30 GLOBAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LIFE CYCLES OF TROPICAL DROUGHTS
Bradfield Lyon

1:30-3:00 POSTER SESSION 1:
Chairperson: M. Halpert 

SESSION 3: SKILL OF CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic

3:00-3:30 RECENT SKILL OF OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTS
Ed O'Lenic

3:30-4:00 VERIFICATION OF NCEP SFM SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION DURING 2001-2003
Jae Schemm

4:00-4:30 HIND-CAST SKILL IN SST PREDICTION IN THE NEW NCEP COUPLED ATMPOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL
Suranjana Saha, Wanqui Wang, Hua-Lu Pan, Dave Behringer, Sudhir Nadiga, Shrinivas Moorthi, and Scott Harper

4:30-5:00 A SUPERIOR ALTERNATIVE TO THE MODIFIED HEIDKE SKILL FOR VERIFICATION OF CATEGORICAL VERSIONS OF CPC OUTLOOKS
Robert Livezey

6:00 - 8:00 WORKSHOP ICEBREAKER RECEPTION

Tuesday October 21

SESSION 4: WEATHER, WATER, AND CLIMATE IN THE WESTERN U. S.
Chairperson: Chet Ropelewski

8:00-8:30 LAND SURFACE MEMORY AND WATER BUDGET OVER THE U. S. WEST COAST STATES AND MONSOON REGIONS
Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool

8:30-9:00 WESTMAP: THE WESTERN CLIMATE MAPPING INITIATIVE
Andrew Comrie, Kelly Redmond, and Christopher Daly

9:00-9:30 FLUCTUATIONS IN RAIN VS. SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST
Dan Cayan, Michael Dettinger, Noah Knowles, and Iris Stewart

10:00-10:30 SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE WESTERN U. S.: FACT OR FICTION
John Janowiak, Robert Joyce, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Yelena Yarosh, and Phil Arkin

10:30-11:00 WINTER OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA - CLIMATIC UNDERPINNINGS AND HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCES
Michael Dettinger, Kelly Redmond, and Daniel Cayan

11:00-11:30 CLIMATIC MODULATIONS OF WATER DEMAND IN THE CITY OF ALBUQUERQUE
David Gutzler and Joshua Nims

12:30-2:00 POSTER SESSION 2:
Chairperson: Muthu Chelliah

SESSION 5: MONSOON SYSTEMS
Chairperson: Jae Schemm

2:00-2:30 VARIABILITY IN DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE NAME TIER 1 DOMAIN AND ASSOCIATED RELATIONSHIPS WITH TRANSIENT SYNOPTIC FEATURES
Art Douglas and Phillip Englehart

2:30-3:00 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi, and Chris Hain

3:00-3:30 CIRCULATION REGIMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON AND IMPACT ON FORECAST SKILL
Kingtse Mo

3:30-4:00 PREDICTING THE ONSET OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON AND PROGRESS TOWARD A MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING
David Mitchell, Beth Hall, Miguel Lavin, Dorothea Ivanova, and Kelly Redmond

4:00-4:30 PREDICTABILITY OF SUMMERTIME NORTH AMERICAN PRECIPITATION
Gilbert Compo and Prashant Sardeshmukh

4:30-5:00 DIURNAL, INTRASEASONAL, AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM
Phil Arkin and Pingping Xie

Wednesday October 22

SESSION 6: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY
Chairperson: Lisa Goddard

8:00-8:30 SYNOPTIC VIEW OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION/IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION A BREAKING WAVE
Steven Feldstein, Sukyong Lee, Christian Franzke, and James J. Benedict

8:30-9:00 ON THE TIME SCALES OF ATMOSPHERIC INDICES
Roland Madden

9:00-9:30 A STUDY OF NORTH AMERICAN STORMTRACKS: CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABIITY, AND TRENDS
Tim Eichler and Wayne Higgins

9:30-10:00 THE INFLUENCE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) ON NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HIGH LATITUDE WINTERTIME SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES
Gabriel Vecchi and Nicholas Bond

SESSION 7: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
Chairperson: K. Mo

10:30-11:00 RAINFALL IN WESTERN SOUTH AMERICA: THE TRADITIONAL "EL NIÑO" VERSUS "GLOBAL ENSO"
Chet Ropelewski and Lisa Goddard

11:00-11:30 GLOBAL PATTERNS OF THE RISK OF SEASONAL EXTREMES RELATED TO ENSO
Robert Webb, John Eischeid, Henry Diaz, Klaus Wolter, Catherine Smith, and Randall Dole

11:30-12:00 EL NIÑO: CATASTROPHE OR OPPORTUNITY
Lisa Goddard

1:00-2:30 POSTER SESSION 3
Chairperson: Song Yong

SESSION 7: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chairperson: Kingtse Mo

2:30-3:00 OPPOSITE PHASES OF THE ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH INTRASEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICS DURING THE AUSTRAL SUMMER
Leila Carvalho, Charles Jones, and Tercio Ambrizzi

3:00-3:30 ENSO-LESS TROPICAL SSTS THAT STILL HAVE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
Cecile Penland and Ludmila Matrosova

3:30-4:00 PERSISTENCE OF MARINE TROPICAL CLIMATE AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR EL NIÑO HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTIONS
Alexey Kaplan and Daniel Gombos

4:00-4:30 TRENDS REVISITED
Huug van den Dool

4:30-5:00 SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF GLOBAL-SCALE PRECIPITATION AS OBSERVED BY THE TRMM PRECIPITATION RADAR (PR) AND THE MERGED ANALYSES
Pingping Xie, John Janowiak, Phillip Arkin, and Mingyue Chen

6:00-9:00 WORKSHOP BANQUET

Thursday October 23

SESSION 8: DIAGNOSING DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS
Chairperson: Vern Kousky

8:00-8:30 ENSO-FORCED DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
Matthew Newman

8:30-9:00 VASCILLATIONS OF THE TROPICAL AND NORTH PACIFIC CO-RELATION DIAGNOSED IN OBSERVATIONS, PROXY RECONSTRUCTION, AND IN A COUPLED MODEL
Alexander Gershunov, Michael Evans, Malcolm Hughes, and Herve Douville

9:00-9:30 INTERDECADAL ANOMALY CORRELATION CHANGE IN AN ENSEMBLE AGCM EXPERIMENT
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa and Masao Kanamitsu

SESSION 9: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION
Chairperson: Klaus Wolter

10:00-10:30 PHYSICAL INITIALIZATION FOR THE REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL
Ana Nunes, John Roads, and Masao Kanamitsu

10:30-11:00 DIAGNOSING THE ENSO AND MJO SIGNAL IN THE NEW NCEP COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL
Wanqiu Wang, Hua-Lu Pan, Suranjana Saha, Dave Behringer, Sudhir Nadiga, Shrinivas Moorthi, and Scott Harper

11:00-11:30 AN OVERVIEW OF NCEPS NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS
W. Ebisuzaki, F. Mesinger, G. DiMego, E. Kalnay, K. Mithcell, M. Ek, R. Grumbine, D. Jovic, P. Shafram, and J. Woolen

11:30-12:00 130-YEAR SIMULATION OF THE PERIOD FROM 1872-2001 BY THE JMA AGCM
Shoji Kusunoki, Keiichi Matsumaru, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa, and Osamu Arakawa

1:00-2:30 POSTER SESSION 4
Chairperson: John Janowiak

SESSION 10: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION AT THE ARCS
Chairperson: Anjuli Bamzai

2:30-3:00 SEASONAL CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION CONSORTIUM: AN OVERVIEW
Arun Kumar, Tony Barnston, Lisa Goddard, and Martin Hoerling

3:00-3:30 SEASONAL CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION CONSORTIUM: STATUS, ANALYSIS OF THE NDJF 2002-03 CLIMATE FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U. S.
Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar, Lisa Goddard, and Martin Hoerling

3:30-4:00 IRI/ARCS REGIONAL APPLICATIONS PROJECT
J. Roads, S. Chen, J. Chen, A. Nunes, D. Lettenmaier, E. Salathe, E. Miles, H. Juang, J. Han, J. Wang, S. Lord, S. Cocke, T. Larow, J. -H. Qian, S. Zdbiak, and Andrew Robertson

4:00-4:30 CDEP CONSORTIUM ON OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (ODASI)
Michele Rienecker, Stephen Zebiak, James Kinter, David Behringer, Antonio Rosati, and Alexey Kaplan

4:30 ADJOURN


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