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Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop
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NOAA's 43rd Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop
Santa Barbara, California, 23–25 October 2018
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Oral session program
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 |
07:30 – 09:30 |
REGISTRATION |
08:30 – 09:00 |
Welcoming Remarks – David DeWitt, Director, CPC; Professor Emeritus Joel Michaelsen, UCSB |
09:00 – 09:30 |
Recent Progress on Improving S2S Prediction and Monitoring at CPC and S2S Prediction Challenges for the Community
David DeWitt, Climate Prediction Center |
Session 1: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System Chair: David Dewitt, CP |
09:30 – 09:50 |
A Hybrid Dynamic-Statistical Approach to Link Predictive Understanding to Improve Seasonal Prediction of Rainfall Anomalies at the Regional Scale (INVITED)
Rong Fu1, Nelon Fernando2, Sudip Chakraborty1, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA1, Texas Water Development Board2 |
09:50 – 10:10 |
False Alarms in CFSv2 ENSO Predictions
Wanqiu Wang, CPC/NCEP |
10:10 – 10:30 |
ENSO Variability Since 1980 Reconsidered
Klaus Wolter, Tao Zhang, Judith Perlwitz, Martin Hoerling, Andrew Hoell, Jon Eischeid, University of Colorado, Boulder & NOAA-ESRL-PSD |
10:30 – 10:50 |
BREAK (20 mins) |
Session 2: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System
(continued)
Chair: Leila Carvalho, UCSB |
10:50 – 11:10 |
Mechanisms for the Formation of Super El Niños
Tim Li, University of Hawaii. |
11:10 – 11:30 |
The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the eastern Andes low-level jet and precipitation in South America
Charles Jones, University of California at Santa Barbara |
11:30 – 11:50 |
Enhanced Ocean Monitoring Products Using Ensemble Ocean Reanalyses
Yan Xue1, C. Wen1,2, A. Kumar1, E. Becker1,2, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC1, Innovim LLC |
11:50 – 12:10 |
Untangling Seasonal Predictions over California during 2015/16 El Nino and the Parable of Blind Men and an Elephant: What next?
Arun Kumar and Mingyue Chen, CPC/NCEP |
12:10 – 13:30 |
LUNCH (1 hour 20 mins) |
Session 3: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System
(continued)
Chair: Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC |
13:30 – 13:50 |
Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-Model Evaluation
Bin Guan, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, UCLA; Duane E.Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, and F. Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD |
13:50 – 14:10 |
Using the Onset Dynamics to Understand the ENSO Complexity
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine |
14:10 – 14:30 |
Subsurface ocean biases in climate models and its implications in the simulated interannual variability; a case study for Indian Ocean
Shikha Singh, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India |
14:30 – 15:00 |
BREAK (30 mins) |
Session 4: IDSS-Impact Decision Support Services
Chair: Greg Husak, UCSB |
15:00 – 15:20 |
Advanced Observing Systems for Emergency Response and Integrated Water Management (INVITED)
Angelique Fabbiani-Leon, California Department of Water Resources, Division of Flood Management, Hydrology and Flood Operations Office |
15:20 – 15:40 |
More Talk, Better Climate Products: The Fruits of CPC and NWS Alaska Collaboration, 2013-2018
Rick Thoman, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region |
15:40 – 16:00 |
Employing Multiple Drought Indices for Global Decision Support Justyn D. Jackson and Raymond B. Kiess, 14 Weather Squadron, USAF |
16:00 – 16:20 |
Towards Increased Utilization of Weather Forecast Products in Agriculture
Aston Chipanshi, Mark Berry, Marilee Pregitzer and Hai Lin, Agroclimate, Geomatics and Earth Observation, Science & Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
16:20 – 16:40 |
Overview of Drought GIS Techniques on Drought.gov
Steve Ansari, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information |
16:40 – 17:00 |
NWS Regional and Local Climate – Informed Decision Support Services
Marina Timofeyeva, Fiona Horsfall, Jenna Meyers, and Viviane Silva, NOAA NWS AFSO Climate Services Branch |
17:30 – 20:00 |
ICE BREAKER / POSTER SESSION |
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 |
08:00 - 09:00 |
REGISTRATION |
Session 5: Prospects for Improved Understanding, Prediction, and Simulation of Climate Variability
Chair: Charles Jones, UCSB |
08:30 – 08:50 |
Diagnosing Sources of Operational Forecast Model Errors in Tropical-Extratropical Interactions (INVITED)
Juliana Dias, George Kiladis, and Maria Gehne, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD |
08:50 – 09:10 |
Weather regime Diagnostic Tools for Wintertime Sub-Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts
Andrew W. Robertson, Nicolas Vigaud, Jing Yuan, Michael Tippett, IRI, Columbia
University |
09:10 – 09:30 |
Improve CFS Week 3~4 Precipitation and 2m Temperature Forecasts With Neural Network Technique
Yun Fan1, Chung-Yu Wu1, Jon Gottschalck1 and Vladimir Krasnopolsky2,
NOAA/NCEP/CPC1 and NOAA/NCEP/EMC2. |
09:30 – 09:50 |
Selective Monsoon-ENSO Interaction: Active Role of the Southeast Asian Monsoon
Song Yang, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou, China |
09:50 – 10:10 |
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)
Kathy Pegion, George Mason University & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies |
10:10 – 10:30 |
BREAK (20-mins) |
Session 6: Prospects for Improved Understanding, Prediction, and Simulation of Climate Variability (continued)
Chair: Arun Kumar, CPC |
10:30 – 10:50 |
MJO Predictive Skill and Impacts in the Navy Earth System Model
Matthew Adam Janiga, Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division |
10:50 – 11:10 |
Experimental Subseasonal Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers over the Western U.S. During Winter 2017-2018 and 2018-2019
Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA JPL/CalTech |
11:10 – 11:30 |
Recent Developments and Ongoing Challenges in Operational Seasonal Prediction at CPC
Stephen Baxter, CPC/NCEP |
11:30 – 11:50 |
Prospects for Year 2 Climate Forecasts with Useful Skill
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD |
11:50 – 12:10 |
The Effect of the Mean Bias Removal on MJO Forecast Skill
Yun-Lan Chen, Wanqiu Wang, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, NOAA/NCEP/CPC |
12:10 – 13:20 |
LUNCH (1 hour 10 mins) |
Session 7: Tony Barnston Tribute
Chair: Mike Halpert, CPC |
13:20 – 13:30 |
Working with Tony Barnston
Huug van den Dool, Innovim/CPC (Remote Presentation) |
13:30 – 13:40 |
Climate Prediction and Climate Service for Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI): Anthony Barnston's contribution
Luke He, CPC/NCEP |
13:40 – 13:50 |
The Evolution of IRI’s Seasonal Forecast System under Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston
Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia University |
13:50 – 14:00 |
Understanding Skill Scores
Mike Tippett, Columbia University |
14:00 – 14:20 |
Staying happy and motivated in the face of modest inherent climate predictability
Tony Barnston, IRI |
14:20 – 14:50 |
BREAK (30 Minutes) |
Session 8: Climate variability and prediction in relation to the hydrologic cycle and in particular Western water resources.
Chair: Bin Guan, JPL |
14:50 – 15:10 |
Are Dynamical Sub-Seasonal Scale Forecasts Useful for Predicting Extreme Precipitation and Heat Wave Events in California and Nevada?
Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California, Santa Barbara |
15:10 – 15:30 |
ENSO Teleconnections to Western Precipitation in a Non-Stationary Climate
Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD |
15:30 – 15:50 |
Evaluation of the SubX Reforecast Skill under Real-time Considerations Emerson LaJoie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC |
15:50 – 16:10 |
S2S Predictability of US West Coast Atmospheric Ridging Events
Peter Gibson, JPL/CalTech |
16:10 – 16:30 |
Climate Variability, Climate Change, and the Risk of Extreme 'Megadrought'
Samantha Stevenson, Jonathan Overpeck, Sloan Coats, Bette Otto-Bliesner, John Fasullo, Toby Ault, and Julia Cole. UC Santa Barbara, U. Michigan, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Cornell University, and U. Michigan |
16:30 – 16:50 |
Demystifying Satellite Rainfall Products: Strengths, Weakness, and Comparisons with Traditional In-Situ Observations
Pete Peterson, Climate Hazards Center, UCSB |
18:30 – 21:30 |
BANQUET
Speaker: Dr. Marion Wittmann,
Executive Director, Santa Cruz Island Reserve,
UCSB Natural Reserve System |
Thursday, October 25, 2018 |
Session 9: Observation, Prediction and Attribution of Recent High Impact Weather and
Climate Events, and Implication for Extreme Precipitation and
Temperatures, Heat/Cold Waves, Droughts and Wildfires
Chair: Stephen Baxter, CPC |
08:30 – 08:50 |
North America's winter circulation has changed, but for how long?(INVITED)
Simon S-Y Wang, Utah State University |
08:50 – 09:10 |
Overview of the 2017–18 La Nina and El Nino Watch in mid-2018
Michelle L'Heureux, CPC/NCEP |
09:10 – 09:30 |
Probabilistic Drought Prediction over the Conterminous United States based on the North American Multi Model Ensemble
Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P Lettenmaier, CPC/NCEP and UCLA |
09:30 – 09:50 |
Predictability of U.S. Northern Great Plains Summertime Precipitation Extremes
Andrew Hoell1, Klaus Wolter1, Flavio Lehner2, Judith Perlwitz 1, Jon Eischeid 1, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2 |
09:50 – 10:10 |
The Evolution and Status of the Northern Plains Drought and the Ongoing Southern Drought
Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC/NCEP |
10:10 – 10:30 |
BREAK (20 mins) |
Session 10: Observation, Prediction and Attribution of Recent High Impact Weather and Climate Events, and Implication for Extreme Precipitation and Temperatures, Heat/Cold Waves, Droughts and Wildfires (continued)
Chair: Shrad Shukla, UCSB |
10:30 – 10:50 |
Changes in Frequency of High-Impact Precipitation Accumulations in a Warming Climate: the Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration
Jesse Norris, UCLA |
10:50 – 11:10 |
Water Cycle in the Subtropical North Atlantic, Sea Surface Salinity, and its Implication for Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest
Laifang Li, Raymond W. Schmitt, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Adwait Sahasrabhojanee, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang, Duke University, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Northeastern University; Chinese Academy of Science |
11:10 – 11:30 |
The Floods in Equatorial East Africa during the MAM 2018 Rainfall Season
Wassila Thiaw, Climate Prediction Center |
11:30 – 11:50 |
A Climate Hazards Perspective on Attributing and Predicting ENSO-Related Droughts
Chris Funk, Shrad Shukla, Laura Harrison, Gregory Husak, Catherine Pomposi and Frank Davenport, US Geological Survey, UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group |
11:50 – 12:10 |
Santa Ana Events in Southern California: Global Scale Teleconnections and Potential S2S Predictability
Tom Murphree, Emily Szasz, and Kellen Jones, Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943-5114 |
12:10 – 13:30 |
LUNCH (1 hour 20 mins) |
Session 11: Improving Models and Forecasts
Chair: Chris Funk, UCSB |
13:30 – 13:50 |
Multi-Year Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Zhuo Wang and Chuan-Chieh Chang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign |
13:50 – 14:10 |
Joined CanSIPS-CFSv2 seasonal forecasts
Marko Markovic, Environment and Climate Change, Canada |
14:10 – 14:30 |
An Assessment of Predictability and Prediction of NCEP GEFS for Subseasonal Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC |
14:30 – 14:50 |
The Development of the next generation NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Xiaqiong Zhou, Yuejian Zhu and Dingchen Hou, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA |
14:50 – 15:10 |
Development of consistent CPC sub-monthly and monthly forecasts
Peitao Peng, Mike Halpert, Stephen Baxter and Mike Charles, NOAA/NCEP/CPC |
15:10 – 15:40 |
Coffee Break (30 mins) |
Session 12: Improving Observational Data Sets
Chair: Michelle LHeureux, CPC |
15:40 – 16:00 |
The Aleutian Low – Beaufort Sea Anticyclone: A new climate index for seasonal melt of the Pacific Arctic cryosphere
Christopher Cox, CIRES/NOAA |
16:00 – 16:20 |
Enhancing the Monitoring of Global Precipitation with the Second Generation CMORPH Integrated Satellite Estimates
Pingping Xie, Robert Joyce, and Shaorong Wu, CPC/NCEP |
16:20 – 16:40 |
Recent slow melt of summer Arctic sea ice due to tropical Pacific SST changes
Ian Baxter, Qinghua Ding, Axel Schweiger, Bradley Markle1, Daniel Topal, & Jian Lu |
16:40 – 17:00 |
How Southern California's Winter Storms go South (Rather than North)
Jonathan Mitchell, UCLA |
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