Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July and July-August-September (JAS), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JAS, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on June 17, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.

During the past month, drought conditions in the West region were a mixed bag with drought deterioration and expansion across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Rockies, while drought improvement was observed across parts of the southern West region. Looking ahead, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks forecast drier conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies, and equal chances (EC, above-near-below normal) precipitation across much of remainder of the West, coupled with a general dry climatology and near to above normal temperatures across much of the region. Therefore, persistence is forecast for the existing drought across much of the West, with potential drought expansion likely over these abnormal dry (D0) areas. One exception over the West region is the core monsoon area in the Southwest. Some improvement is favored due to forecast EC for precipitation across the area coupled with a climatological peak wet season and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the northern half of the Western Region and low across the monsoon region.

Continued drought reduction (1-3 class improvement) was observed across much of the High Plains region, with more than 50% moderate to extreme (D1 to D3) drought coverage in early May dropped to less than 40% coverage as of the June 17, 2025 US Drought Monitor due to beneficial rainfall activities during the period. Looking ahead to the JAS season, the High Plains region enters its climatological wet season. The WPC forecasts 1 to 3 inches of precipitation across much of the region in the next 7 days. The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day extended-range forecasts favor slightly above normal precipitation across much of the region. However, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks both favor below normal precipitation across much of the region coupled with above normal temperatures. Therefore, persistence is the most likely outcome for the existing drought across the region through the end of September with drought expansion likely for parts of these currently abnormal dry areas in Wyoming and North Dakota.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.

Periodic heavy precipitation across western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas brought widespread drought amelioration (1 to 3 class improvement) during the past month. Looking ahead, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor EC precipitation across much of western and central portions of the Southern region, slightly wetter conditions across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, persistence is favored for the existing drought over Texas.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern region.

Moderate drought is currently affecting less than 10% of the Midwest region. During the past month, periodic heavy precipitation brought some widespread relief across the Midwest. However, some deterioration was also seen across parts of the region due to precipitation deficits. During the next week, the WPC forecasts 1 to 3 inches of precipitation across much of the Midwest region. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor slightly below normal precipitation in western parts of the region, EC of precipitation across the central and northern parts of the region and slightly above normal precipitation in southeastern portions of the region. Therefore, persistence is favored for the existing drought over Minnesota and western portion of Iowa. Removal is expected for the existing drought over southeast Iowa and the Great Lakes area.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest region.

During the past month, continued drought amelioration (1 to 2 class improvement) was observed over parts of the Southeast region due to beneficial periodic rainfall across the region, with deterioration also seen over several small areas of the Florida Peninsula. Looking ahead, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks predict wetter than normal conditions across much of the region. The coastal region and Florida Peninsula also enter their rainy season. Therefore, drought removal is favored for the existing drought over the region by the end of the season.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast region.

Drought reduction continued for the Northeast region and the coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) dropped from more than 15% at the beginning of May to less than 1% moderate drought (D1) in early June, benefiting from periodic storm systems that moved across the region and brought widespread precipitation. The WPC forecasts slightly wet signals across the region in the next 7 days, while the CPC extended-range outlooks also predict slightly above normal precipitation over the areas. Both the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor above normal precipitation across much of the Northeast region. Therefore, removal is the most likely outcome for the existing drought conditions across the region.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast region.

Alaska is currently drought free, and drought development is not likely during the JAS season due to the CPC extended range outlooks favoring slightly above normal precipitation across the state, and both of the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks also predict near to above normal precipitation, coupled with a climatological wet season for the region.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Abnormally dry conditions continued across much of the Islands during the past month. The region is in its climatological dry season, and the CPC’s monthly and seasonal guidance favors below-normal precipitation. Therefore, persistence is the most likely outcome with some potential development over the Leeward sides.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Puerto Rico. The dynamical forecasts across the Caribbean region favor slightly above-normal precipitation. The region also enters its rainy season. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop during the JAS period.

Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands, and the same climate signals factoring into the forecast for Puerto Rico also apply to the Virgin Islands. No drought is anticipated to develop through the end of September.

Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 17, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT