Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March and March-April-May (MAM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for MAM, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on February 18, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought coverage increased substantially across the Western Region during the past month, with moderate or worse drought conditions as depicted on the US Drought Monitor increasing to just over 50 percent of the region as of the 11 February release. Much of this expansion occurred over the Four Corners region and southern California, where abnormally dry and warm conditions prevailed through much of the winter to date. Drought also expanded along the northern Cascades and coastal Washington, where precipitation has been much below normal despite the developing La Niņa event. In contrast, storm systems brought heavy precipitation to northern California, interior Oregon, portions of the Intermountain West, and the northern High Plains of Montana, resulting in alleviation of drought and abnormal dryness (D0 depiction on the USDM). A pattern change favors increased precipitation across the Pacific Northwest through the end of February, and the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks persist a wet signal across the Northwest throughout the Spring months. This potential for increased moisture favors drought reductions for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where drought conditions degraded in the past month. In contrast, a pronounced dry signal exists in the forecast guidance at all time scales across the southern half of the Western region. Given the extent of drought development that has already occurred during the winter months when evapotranspirative demands are at their lowest, there is fairly high confidence that continued degradations will occur during the Spring months. Therefore, drought development is indicated on the outlook for the northern Great Basin, Utah, and much of the Four Corners states.

Forecast confidence is high for the Western Region.

Little change to the drought depiction occurred over the past month in the High Plains Region, which is typical for the time of year when climatological precipitation is low and streams and soils are frozen. Moderate to severe drought conditions cover the majority of the region; just over 60 percent as of 11 February. While temperatures have been below average throughout much of the winter across the northern and central Plains, snowpack coverage remains meager across the Dakotas and much of Wyoming. A recent storm system brought better snow coverage to the central Plains. Through the end of February, a series of clipper type storm systems may bring light snow to the Northern Plains, but accumulations will likely be insufficient to improve the overall snowpack. The CPC seasonal outlook depicts increased chances of below normal precipitation for Kansas and Nebraska, and maintains equal chances across the northern Plains. Climatological precipitation increases during the Spring months as Gulf moisture penetrates increasingly far to the north. While precipitation events could alleviate drought conditions, the lack of significant snow cover across the northern Plains lessens the potential for Spring recharge. Therefore, persistence of existing drought areas is maintained on this outlook. Drought development is possible across Kansas and portions of Colorado where a drier signal is more pronounced in the guidance. Winter moisture was more favorable across the central Rockies in Colorado, making drought development in this area less likely.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Drier than average conditions have prevailed through much of the Winter across the Southern region. While drought conditions (D1 or worse) have not expanded substantially, abnormal dryness (D0) has been introduced across much of northern Texas, western Oklahoma, and the Mississippi Delta region over the past few weeks. These regions are primed for drought development to occur during the Spring months absent sufficient precipitation to maintain climatologically appropriate soil moisture levels. While precipitation climatology increases substantially during the Spring months across the region as Gulf moisture increasingly advances northward and westward, a pronounced dry signal is maintained in the CPC monthly and seasonal guidance across most of Texas and Oklahoma. Based on these outlooks, drought development is favored for the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma during the Spring months, with persistence of existing drought areas the most likely outcome. The lower Mississippi Valley is currently drought free, and absent a clear dry signal, high climatological precipitation should be sufficient to prevent widespread development ahead of the hotter months of the year. Across the Tennessee Valley, recent wetness has begun to erode lingering drought conditions, and increased precipitation through the end of February should be sufficient to maintain this positive vector.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.

Similar to the High Plains, there has been little change to the overall drought depiction across the Midwest Region during the last month, as soils and streams are largely frozen over. Snowpack conditions are much below average across the upper Mississippi River basin, which may be a concern for recharge during the Spring melting season. Snow cover is better across Michigan and regions downwind of the Great Lakes, owing in part to persistent Lake Effect snow events through the winter due to frequent Arctic airmass invasions and warmer than average lakes. Despite the developing La Niņa conditions across the equatorial Pacific, the typical displacement of the favored storm track across the Ohio Valley has not materialized, due in part to an active MJO pattern that has counteracted the ENSO response. During the latter half of February, light snow is forecast across much of the region due to a series of clipper type systems. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks maintain enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation, and a La Niņa pattern may be more likely to emerge during the end of Winter and early Spring. Therefore, drought reductions are favored for the regions where the CPC seasonal outlook indicates this wetter signal. Persistence is maintained for the remainder of the upper Midwest, as the low snow cover may limit the potential for Spring recharge despite the increasing precipitation climatology during the period.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest Region.

Drought conditions expanded substantially across the Southeast Region during the past month, particularly across the southern Appalachians and Piedmont regions, and the Florida Peninsula. Wet weather across northern Florida brought some drought relief, and a more recent storm system eroded some of the recently developed drought conditions across the southern Appalachians. Additional storm systems through the end of February are likely to continue eroding the short term drought areas across the Southeast, though some degradations could occur in areas that miss out on precipitation. The CPC monthly and seasonal guidance maintains equal chances for below-, near-, and above-average precipitation during the Spring months across most of the Southeast, and climatological precipitation is high enough to provide good recharge. An exception is the Florida Peninsula, where the seasonal guidance slightly favors below-average rainfall. With the rainy season onset falling mostly beyond this outlook period, continued drought expansion is favored across the Florida Peninsula.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.

While low evapotranspirative demand has lessened some impacts, an unusually long term drought remains in place across portions of the Northeast Region, with low streamflows and ground water supply continuing to plague portions of the mid-Atlantic, the Delmarva, southern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania in particular. Recent storminess brought some drought relief, especially across the central Appalachians, but much more moisture is needed to make significant dents in the lingering drought areas closer to the coast. Light precipitation is forecast for the upcoming week, while increased storminess may provide some opportunities for improvement towards the end of February. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks slightly favor above-average precipitation west of the Appalachians during the Spring months, with equal chances maintained elsewhere. Climatological precipitation is high across the East, and typically there is sufficient moisture from frequent storm systems to chip away at drought areas that develop. However, given the longevity of drought conditions since late Summer, impacts to water supply may be slower to respond to precipitation than is typical. Also, even if storm systems improve drought impacts, any dry periods occurring with evapotranspiration rates increasing could spark a rapid return of drought conditions. Therefore, drought persistence is the favored outcome across much of the Northeast Region, with confidence unusually low. An exception is northern New England, where improved snow cover should provide better recharge during the Spring melt.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.

No drought is currently depicted across Alaska. Snow cover is much below average across the southern tier of Alaska, and an area of abnormal dryness has been introduced in the latest US Drought Monitor. While soil conditions are not currently problematic, the lack of mountain snowpack may pose a water supply problem during the Spring. Therefore, drought development is indicated on the outlook across the southern tier of Alaska.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.

Increased moisture during the wet season has removed much of the drought that developed during the Fall months across Hawaii. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks both favor enhanced wetness across Hawaii, which is consistent with La Niņa impacts. Therefore, removal of the remaining drought areas is forecast.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Puerto Rico. Dynamical model guidance favors a wet signal through the Spring months across the northern Caribbean region, including Puerto Rico. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Puerto Rico.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands. Dynamical model guidance favors a wet signal through the Spring months across the northern Caribbean region, including the Virgin Islands. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the US Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT