Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks for July-August-September (JAS), monthly precipitation and temperature outlooks for July, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts, dynamical model output, JAS climatology, and initial conditions such as snowpack and soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on June 13 was used for initial conditions. El Nino conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific, and the latest forecasts show this signal strengthening over the next several months. 

As of the June 6 USDM, drought conditions covered just under 16 percent of the Western Region, after beginning the water year at nearly 74 percent coverage. Snowpack conditions are still well above average across Utah, Nevada, and the Sierra Nevadas, with moderate temperatures promoting a slow release of water. In contrast, periods of hot, dry weather across the Northwest and Northern Rockies resulted in rapid melting of a somewhat more meager snowpack, and much of the region now lacks snow cover, with streamflows beginning to decrease. Storm systems have boosted soil moisture across western Montana, Idaho, and eastern Oregon, counteracting the lack of snow cover, but drought conditions have expanded across the Pacific Northwest. JAS is a climatologically dry period for California and the Northwest, while the onset of the Southwest monsoon brings a substantial portion of annual rainfall to Arizona and New Mexico. During the next two weeks, additional precipitation across the Northwest should maintain a status quo of drought conditions, but gradual drought expansion is favored for the Northwest, with the seasonal outlook favoring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. A wetter outlook east of the continental divide favors some improvements for Wyoming and Montana. The monthly and seasonal outlooks predict a near to below-normal monsoon season for the Southwest, which limits the potential for further drought improvements. Widespread development is possible if monsoon convection largely fails to materialize, but antecedent conditions are fairly wet, so outside of an area in southern New Mexico that is already abnormally dry, development is not favored on this outlook.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.

Drought conditions have eased considerably across the High Plains region during the past month; however, this region still contains the most expansive areas of extreme to exceptional drought in the contiguous United States, mostly across Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Just over 10 percent of the High Plains region is currently experiencing severe to exceptional drought, which is half of the coverage recorded at the start of the calendar year. JAS is a fairly wet time of year for the High Plains, with climatological precipitation beginning to decrease during September. During the next 7 days, the WPC QPF shows widespread rainfall exceeding 1 inch across most of the region, which should continue the gradual easement of drought conditions. The CPC 8-14 day outlook slightly favors above-normal rainfall, the July outlook favors above-normal precipitation for the Northern Plains, and the seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation for most of the High Plains region. These outlooks indicate that continued drought reduction is the most likely outcome.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.

Drought conditions were also reduced across western Oklahoma and much of Texas, with drought coverage also approximately halved compared to the beginning of the calendar year. While eastern portions of the Southern Region currently have less drought coverage, 30-day precipitation has been well below-normal across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana, making these areas highly vulnerable to flash drought development heading into the climatologically hottest time of year. In the near term, a potent storm system is favored to bring widespread heavy convective rainfall to eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, boosting moisture and slowing further degradations. In contrast, several weeks of hot, dry conditions are favored to overspread Texas and Oklahoma, which would promote rapid drying of soils. The July precipitation outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across eastern Texas and Louisiana, which, coupled with climatology, makes drought development more uncertain, while the seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation for northeastern Texas and Oklahoma. Based on the potential for short term degradations, drought persistence is favored for western and southern Texas, with a small development area included across interior southeastern Texas. Drought improvement is favored for most of Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. For the remaining drought areas across southern Louisiana, typical summer convective activity should continue easing the lingering dryness.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern Region.

A persistent blocking pattern resulted in static high pressure settling over the Midwest region, which promoted much above normal temperatures in western portions of the region and below-average temperatures to the east. The entire region experienced much below-normal rainfall throughout the last month, resulting in rapid expansion of drought conditions throughout the Corn Belt. Drought coverage doubled during the first week of June, and is continuing to rapidly expand through mid-June. Any region of the Midwest, Corn Belt, and Great Lakes not currently experiencing abnormal dryness is extremely vulnerable to rapid drought onset due to the incipient dryness. During the next 7 days, a storm system is favored to bring widespread light to moderate precipitation along the Ohio Valley, but largely misses the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions. Therefore, short term drought expansion should continue in these latter regions. The July outlook favors above-normal precipitation for much of Minnesota, which should help stave off further drought expansion, but the JAS seasonal outlook depicts enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation across the Great Lakes region. Based on the antecedent dryness and these outlooks, continued large-scale drought expansion is favored for the Great Lakes region and western Corn Belt. Some improvement to drought conditions is favored for Minnesota, western Iowa, and western Missouri.

Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.

Conditions across the Northeast have been very similar to the Midwest, with blocking high pressure maintaining mostly dry conditions during the past month, with below-normal temperatures helping to avoid a much more rapid drought expansion. Still, drought coverage increased considerably across the mid-Atlantic region, though recent precipitation events boosted moisture across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania. The entire region is extremely vulnerable to rapid drought development heading into the hottest month of the year. The 7-day QPF from WPC shows widespread soaking rainfall overspreading the entire Northeast region, with the greatest accumulations across the drier mid-Atlantic region. This rainfall should help prevent short term drought expansion, but will likely not overcome the recent dryness. The July outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across the mid-Atlantic, but equal chances for below-, near-, and above-normal rainfall are maintained across the region in the JAS seasonal outlook. Normally, climatological rainfall during the summer months should keep drought at bay across the Northeast; however, given the very dry initial conditions, the potential for widespread improvement is less certain. Therefore, outside of a small region near the NY-Canada border, widespread drought development is not indicated, but persistence of existing drought areas is maintained. It should be noted that any areas that miss out on the anticipated short term rainfall can rapidly begin experiencing drought impacts.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.

Much of the Southeast has also experienced below-average rainfall over the last 30 days, but drought coverage is significantly less compared to the Midwest and Northeast regions. The short term forecast is also considerably wetter, with widespread heavy rainfall favored to overspread the region, bringing up to 7 inches to portions of central Georgia. The CPC 8-14 day outlook also favors above-normal rainfall, and two weeks of enhanced rainfall should overcome the recent deficits. Across Florida, a small area of drought continues to linger along the Nature Coast southward to Southwest Florida, but with the summer seabreeze-driven convective regime in full force, continued drought reduction is likely. Current conditions are very dry across much of Virginia, but generous short term precipitation lessens the potential for drought development.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast Region.

Across Alaska, a small area between the Kenai Peninsula and the Talkeetna Mountains is currently experiencing abnormal dryness. Forecasts through the seasonal period are mixed, and the JAS seasonal outlook favors below-normal precipitation for southwestern Alaska. Given the lack of widespread dryness, it is unlikely for significant drought to develop across Alaska over the next three months. In contrast, El Nino conditions weaken the Walker Circulation and tend to promote suppressed rainfall across Hawaii. Portions of central Hawaii are already beginning to experience abnormal dryness, with moderate drought developing on Maui as of June 13. Based on these climate signals and current conditions, widespread drought development is favored for Hawaii. While suppressed convection is also typically observed across the Caribbean basin during El Nino events, dynamical model forecasts and the NMME favor above-normal precipitation across the northern rim of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. These forecasts, coupled with a wet summer climatology, make drought removal the most likely outcome for northern Puerto Rico.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska, moderate to high for Hawaii, and low to moderate for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook Issued: July 20, 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT