Tools used in the Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February and February-March-April (FMA) 2023, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the FMA season, La Niña composites, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid on January 18, was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought conditions covered around two-thirds of the Western Region as of the early December 2022 USDM.  Several atmospheric river storm systems moved across the region in the past 4 weeks, with the most substantial crossing late in the period. This brought multiple feet of snowpack to some higher elevations in the region, and 10 to 20 inches of rainfall along much of the West Coast, especially in most of California, where heavy precipitation brought widespread 1 to 2 class drought improvement. Extreme and exceptional drought was wiped out from all of California just in the last two weeks. Emergency flooding evacuation was declared in some storm-lashed areas. Water levels in most California's reservoir systems rose quickly. Climatologically, the West Coast has a particularly pronounced wet season with 30 to 45 percent of annual precipitation typically falling during FMA and is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Moving eastward across the region, FMA is a relatively drier time of year closer to the Plains. In eastern portions of Montana and New Mexico, less than 10 percent of the annual precipitation falls during FMA. With the anticipated diminishing La Niña conditions, and near to above normal chances of above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across the northern tier of the region, drought conditions are expected to be improved across much of northern and central California, Oregon, eastward to Idaho and Montana. Conversely, drought persistence is favored for the existing drought areas over the rest of the West due to near to above normal chances of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across the region, with some potential drought development across portions of New Mexico.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high across the northern tier and moderate for the central and southern parts of the Western Region.

Drought coverage has slowly declined across the High Plains Region during the last 4 weeks. Several winter storms brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts of Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska areas. However, nearly two-thirds of the region is still experiencing some degree of drought. Forecasts favor near normal to elevated chances of above normal precipitation in the northern tier of the region in the FMA period, and together with above normal snowpack, some improvement is likely there. But confidence is tempered by the dry climatology this time of year (typically 10 to 20 percent of the annual precipitation). Farther to south, forecasts favor near to increased changes of below normal precipitation for the FMA period, generally from southern South Dakota southward and westward. Drought is expected to remain entrenched across the Central Plains through the period, potentially expanding into the higher elevations of southern Colorado by the end of the period.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.

About half the Midwest was covered by drought in late October and dropped slightly to 44% in early December. During the past 4 weeks, beneficial precipitation across the region continued to bring drought covered areas down to about 19%. FMA is a slightly dry season of year across the northwestern portions of the region, bringing on average 10 to 20 percent of the annual precipitation. For the remainder of the region, the FMA climatological precipitation is about the same as most other times of the year. Forecasts favor above normal precipitation and equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures across much of the region for the FMA period. With above normal precipitation favored together with a climatologically favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, drought improvement or removal is likely for all but the southwestern tier of the region. However, no significant relief is anticipated from western Missouri northward into northwestern Iowa, due, in part, to below normal snowpack over the region. Drought coverage should continue to slowly decline in the Midwest.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest Region.

Drought coverage over the South peaked in late October 2022, where over 80 percent of the region was experiencing drought, but conditions have gradually improved somewhat since then. As of mid-December, 57 percent of the South was enduring some degree of drought. During the past 4 weeks 2 to 10 inches heavy rainfall brought widespread 1 to 2 class drought improvement over the Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of mid-January 2023, drought coverage dropped to 34 percent and was mainly located in the Texas and Oklahoma region. The FMA is a climatologically drier time of year in western parts of the South Region, with 5 to 20 percent of annual precipitation typically falling on western Texas and the western half of Oklahoma. From the Mississippi Valley eastward, however, the FMA is normally about as wet as any other time of year and is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. The forecasts favor above normal precipitation over the Tennessee and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Drought removal is likely across northern Arkansas. Over the rest of the South, forecasts favor near to above normal odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over the coastal areas and west-central Texas and Oklahoma. Drought is expected to persist across the existing drought areas there, with potential development over eastern and southwestern Texas. 

Forecast confidence is high in western parts of the South Region, and moderate in eastern parts of the region.

Widespread drought degradation was observed across the Southeast Region, with flash drought occurring across the Florida Panhandle, and rapid development across Georgia and the southern Appalachians. While less than 3 percent of the Southeast Region was in drought from August through mid-September 2022, dryness slowly intensified and coverage peaked around 31 percent in late November. Scattered areas of precipitation over the last 4 to 6 weeks have reduced coverage to around 20 percent as of mid-January 2023. The FMA is a climatologically drier time of year in the Florida Peninsula and also a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge. Forecasts favor above normal temperatures and near to increased odds of below normal precipitation across the region. As a result, drought persistence is expected in the existing drought areas over the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and coastal parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Drought expansion southward to cover the entire Florida Peninsula is likely by the end of April.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Southeast Region.

The Northeast is the one region where drought conditions have predominantly improved since early-August. About 23 percent of the Northeast was experiencing drought at that time, but now drought is restricted to just one small patch across southeastern New York. FMA is a climatologically favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge and forecasts call for near to elevated odds of above normal precipitation across the region. No drought development is expected for the region and the small patch of drought is likely to be removed by the end of April.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.

Increased moisture across Hawaii reduced drought coverage across the state from over 94 percent in late August 2022 to around 10 percent in early January 2023. However, the D1 drought came back quickly in most of the Islands in mid-January. With increased chances of above normal precipitation for the FMA period and two climatologically wet months left, drought improvement and removal are forecast across the Islands.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Alaska. With the region still in cold season, drought development is unlikely in the region during the FMA period.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Boreal winter is a relatively dry time of year in Puerto Rico and the region will transition to its wet season in late FMA.  During the past 30 days the region has received 1 to 5 inches surplus rainfall, given near to slightly above normal precipitation expected for FMA, no drought development is anticipated. 

Forecast confidence is moderate in Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Seasonal Outlook issued: February 16, 2023 at 8:30 AM EST