Tools used in the Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November and November-December-January (NDJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the NDJ season, La Nina composites, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on October 18, was used for initial drought conditions. 


Following an extended period of below-normal precipitation along with a prolonged duration of above-normal temperatures, short-term drought expanded across the Pacific Northwest. Soil moisture is currently below the 5th percentile with many streamflows below the 10th percentile or at record low levels for this time of year. However, a major pattern change is forecast to occur during late October, as an amplified 500-hPa trough is expected to replace the persistent, anomalous ridge. Model solutions are in excellent agreement and have maintained excellent continuity as well. For the Pacific Northwest, this amplified trough and associated enhancement of onshore flow is likely to bring periods of heavy precipitation during the final week of October. In addition, ensemble means depict a persistence of this pattern into the beginning of November. Based on this much wetter pattern during the next few weeks, La Nina precipitation composites, and a wet climatology during NDJ, drought removal or improvement is likely for the Pacific Northwest. The forecast for drought removal or improvement extends eastward to the Continental Divide of the north-central Rockies and southward to coastal northern California, due to the wetter pattern during the next two weeks along with an increasingly wet climatology through the late fall and winter. For the remainder of California and much of the Great Basin, long-term drought is most likely to persist through the end of January. Also, the seasonal precipitation outlook for NDJ favors below-normal precipitation across the southern half of California and the Southwest. At this time, development is not forecast for Arizona or New Mexico coming off a wet Monsoon and a continuation of above-normal precipitation through mid-October. 

Although the NDJ outlooks feature slightly elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation across parts of central and eastern Montana, broad-scale persistence is favored since precipitation amounts are expected to be too low for meaningful drought improvement. Also, the climatology is much drier for the eastern two-thirds of Montana. 

 
Forecast confidence for the Western Region is moderate. 


Since the beginning of September, drought expanded or intensified across the northern to central Great Plains due to below-normal precipitation and periods of above-normal temperatures. Soil moisture is currently below the 5th percentile throughout Kansas and Nebraska. An increasingly dry climatology during the fall and winter support broad-scale persistence from the Dakotas southward to Kansas. The most likely area to have additional development is forecast for northern Kansas and adjacent areas of Nebraska where the seasonal precipitation outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation and evapotranspiration rates may remain higher at least early in the outlook period. Prospects for improvement increase farther to the west across northwestern Colorado and western Wyoming where 30 to 90-day precipitation has averaged at or above-normal for many areas and the next two weeks are favored to be wetter-than-normal. Also, there is the lack of a dry signal for these areas at the seasonal time scale. 


Forecast confidence is high for the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas; moderate for northwestern Colorado and western Wyoming. 


Drought coverage also expanded and intensified across the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley during September and early to mid-October. 30-day precipitation deficits exceed 3 inches across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Based on the seasonal outlook calling for increased probabilities for below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, persistence and additional development are likely throughout the south-central U.S. through the outlook period. Although the WPC 7-day forecast (valid through Oct 25) depicts 0.5 to 1 inch or more of precipitation, this is expected to provide little if any improvement and the seasonal drought outlook is consistent with the NDJ temperature and precipitation outlooks. 
 

Forecast confidence for the Southern Region is high. 


Similar to the Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, moderate to severe drought expanded northeastward to include more of the middle to upper Mississippi Valley, Corn Belt, and Ohio Valley since mid-September. 30-day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 4 inches throughout a majority of the Midwest. Despite predicted near to above-normal precipitation during late October, broad-scale persistence is most likely for the western two-thirds of Minnesota and Iowa, along with Missouri, based largely on an increasingly dry climatology during NDJ. Also, the seasonal outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for western and southern Missouri which supports persistence. For eastern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota, a slightly wetter climatology coupled with around an inch of precipitation forecast this upcoming week supports improvement or removal. The west-to-east delineation from persistence to improvement/removal is uncertain and lowers forecast confidence. Given the ongoing drought is mostly short-term for a majority of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, improvement or removal is forecast due the lack of a dry signal at the seasonal time scale and the late fall is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. 


Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.


Drought continues to expand in coverage across Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the western Carolinas after a very dry September and early to mid-October. In the typically wetter areas of the southern Appalachians and along the Gulf Coast, 30-day precipitation deficits exceed 4 inches. Additional development is expected during late October with another mostly dry week forecast. Based on the seasonal precipitation outlook and also consistent with La Nina impacts, persistence or development is likely for Alabama, Georgia, northern Florida, and the western Carolinas. Farther to the east across the remainder of the Carolinas, recent heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Ian and its remnants may delay the onset of drought. This region will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlook and subsequent seasonal drought outlooks for potential development. 


Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.


Following above-normal precipitation during the past 30 days, drought coverage decreased with amelioration of drought conditions from the Mid-Atlantic northward to New England. Only longer term precipitation deficits remain for parts of the Northeast. Given the lack of a dry signal during the next 3.5 months and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, removal is likely for any remaining drought.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.


Based on the absence of any abnormal dryness for Alaska depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor and lack of any dry signal at the seasonal time scale, drought is unlikely to develop across Alaska by the end of January. 

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.


Although drought of varying intensity continues for Hawaii, improvement occurred for many areas since late September. Consistent with typical La Nina impacts and the seasonal precipitation outlook, continued drought improvement or removal is forecast. 


Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.


September precipitation averaged 150 to 400 percent of normal across Puerto Rico, due in part to Hurricane Fiona. Due to this antecedent wetness and the lack of a dry signal in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Puerto Rico is likely to remain drought-free through the end of January. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.


Forecaster: Brad Pugh
 
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 17, 2022 at 8:30 AM EST