Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for October and October-November-December (OND), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the SON season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on September 13, 2022 was used for initial drought conditions. La Niña conditions are present at the start of the OND season, with strongly enhanced chances that La Niña will persist through the autumn and winter months. Therefore, temperature and precipitation composites from historical La Niña episodes during OND were also considered.

Drought conditions remain prevalent across the Western and Southern climate regions of the CONUS, with nearly 68% of the Western Region and 59 percent of the Southern Region experiencing moderate drought or worse as of the 30 August 2022 USDM. The Southwest Monsoon has been highly active this Summer, resulting in drought reductions across portions of the Four Corners states, southwestern Arizona and adjacent California, and much of the Southern Plains. As is typical during the monsoon season, the heaviest convective thunderstorms resulted in flash flooding and brought drought relief to much of Texas and Louisiana, parts of Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. In contrast, abnormal dryness coupled with periods of extreme heat across parts of Oklahoma resulted in drought intensification. Seasonable dryness prevailed across the remainder of California and Oregon, resulting in little change to the drought depiction. Over the next two weeks, WPC and CPC forecasts indicate a wet pattern across parts of the interior western CONUS. Beyond week-2, all  the seasonal outlook favors either equal chances  or above normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, along with a transition to a wetter climatology and favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge later this fall. Therefore, drought removal and improvement is favored across parts of Washington and Oregon, and coastal northern California. Drought persistence is forecast for the remainder of the Westwith possible drought development over parts of New Mexico. 

Despite the heavy rainfall during late August across the south-central U.S., development is expected by the end of December across much of Texas. This is based on a relatively warm and dry remainder of September and consistent with the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Western and Southern regions.

Similar to the West, the central and southern portions of the High Plains remain entrenched in moderate to exceptional drought. Although convective systems brought some localized relief to portions of Colorado, Wyoming and western South Dakota, drought conditions were worsened across the portions of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas in general, with the most significant drought impacts existing across Nebraska and Kansas. Further east, increased rainfall over the recent month resulted in widespread drought improvements across the region, though portions of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and the Great Lakes region still remain in moderate to extreme drought conditions. 

Climatological precipitation decreases rapidly across the Plains and Midwest during the fall months, limiting the potential for substantial drought relief, though decreasing evapotranspiration rates also reduce the potential for further drought expansion. During the next 7 days, widespread rainfall is favored to overspread the northern Midwest, which may bring some drought relief and hold off further degradations across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Beyond week 1, near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures are favored across the High Plains and Midwest. Therefore, drought persistence is favored across the High Plains and Midwest regions. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains and Midwestern regions.

Slowly increasing dryness during the past spring accelerated into the development of an unusually stubborn drought across parts of the Northeast. Above normal temperatures during the past months made the drought conditions worsen, with the greatest impacts (D3, extreme drought) felt across eastern and southern Massachusetts and parts of Rhode Island. During the past several weeks increased rainfall brought some relief across much of southern New England, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and southern Maine. However, precipitation events continue to miss coastal areas of the northern mid-Atlantic region with streamflow values are extremely low (below 10 percent) across parts of southern New Jersey, and groundwater levels have begun to drop. The autumn months are typically a great opportunity for soil moisture recharge across the Northeast, as a southerly shifting mean storm track maintains a generous precipitation climatology and ET rates decrease as trees go dormant. The WPC short term forecasts indicate some rainfall and CPC extended range forecasts favor near to above normal rainfall across much of the Northeast, while the CPC Week 3-4, monthly and seasonal outlooks favor EC for precipitation. Given the lack of a strong dry signal among tools during the next 3.5 months and climatology considerations, drought removal and improvement is likely for the region.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeastern Region.

Flash drought conditions were common across the Southeast during early Summer, but a return to a more widespread convective regime eliminated most of the drought conditions across the region. As of the 30 August USDM, less than 1 percent of the Southeast Region was experiencing moderate drought, with small pockets remaining in the southern Delmarva Peninsula, upstate South Carolina and the eastern coastal Florida peninsula. 

During the next 7 days, the WPC QPF forecast shows a continued wet pattern of generous rainfall for the Florida Peninsula, with the heaviest amounts (1.5 to 5 inches) focused over the central and southern Florida Peninsula. The CPC 8-14 day ERF slightly favors above-average rainfall for the same region. The monthly outlook favors EC for precipitation and above normal temperatures across much of the Southeast. The CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for below-average rainfall shift to Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida, with above normal temperatures across the region. Persistence of the small remaining drought over upstate South Carolina and the eastern coastal Florida Peninsula is favored. Uncertainty increases across the Florida peninsula, with the Atlantic hurricane season still in play and followed by a transition to the dry season. The region may be vulnerable to drought development by the winter, depending on how much rainfall occurs prior to the dry season.  

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for most of the Southeastern Region, and low for Florida.

Alaska currently is drought free and is likely to continue as the region enters the cold season of the year. A rapidly decreasing sun angle and temperature climatology during OND makes drought formation less likely. Therefore, drought development is not anticipated during the outlook period. Removal is anticipated for any lingering drought across Puerto Rico with the remaining wet season and hurricane season. The CPC monthly outlook forecast below normal rainfall and seasonal outlook favors EC across the Hawaiian Islands. With the region transitioning to its wet season, drought improvement and removal is favored for the region.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska, and moderate for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook Issued: October 20, 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT.