Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2021 and March through May (MAM) 2021, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamic models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for March and MAM, and initial conditions for parameters such as soil moisture. Existing drought areas on the forecast are based on the February 16 U.S. Drought Monitor. Forecasts currently reflect the presence of a moderate La Nina. It should slowly weaken as the year progresses. But for MAM, its influence will continue. 

Across the West, only parts of the Pacific Northwest are expecting a notable degree of drought relief. Heavy precipitation is expected short-term along the immediate coast and in the Cascades, and odds favor surplus precipitation at longer-range time scales, particularly in Washington. Elsewhere, persistence is expected, with confidence increasing as you move south. In Montana, southern Idaho, and adjacent areas, the next week should bring little precipitation outside the higher elevations, but the odds favor above-normal precipitation in late February, and for March, but not for MAM as a whole. Given the mixed forecast signals, enhanced chances for above-normal MAM temperatures, observed short-term trends, the low snowpack at this time of year, and the relatively long-term (if not intense) nature of the drought there, persistence seems more likely than improvement. Farther south, the situation is more straightforward. Little or no precipitation is forecast through the end of February, and the outlook for MAM favors abnormally warm and dry conditions. Persistence is the only logical forecast, with the highest confidence in much of Arizona and New Mexico, where this is typically a dry time of year in any case. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Pacific Northwest, low in the northern Rockies, and high across the southern half of the Western region.

Similar to most areas farther west, persistence or intensification is expected throughout the drought areas in the High Plains Region, with more confidence in southern sections than farther north. There are mixed signals across the most of the Dakotas and Wyoming, generally favoring dry weather for the coming week, surplus precipitation for late February, and no particular tilt of the odds for MAM as a whole. Precipitation climatologically increases toward the end of spring, so any short-term departures from normal would probably be minimally consequential comparted to late spring, when normals are higher. The bottom line is that none of the tools gives any reason to expect abundant precipitation on any time scale, so persistence is the better forecast. Across central and southern sections of the region, however, the tools robustly favor warmer and drier conditions than normal on most time scales ranging from one week to three months (the MAM outlook). Persistence is the only reasonable forecast. Also, the expected warm and dry spring, along with antecedent conditions slightly drier than normal, point toward drought expanding across south-central Kansas by the end of spring. 

Forecast confidence is low in the northern reaches of the High Plains region, and high farther south.

Outside western Iowa, there is not much drought to speak of in the Midwest region. Forecasts for western Iowa favor subnormal precipitation for the next two weeks, with no consensus of indications in either direction after that. Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures should prevail. Considering this and the long-term nature of the drought there, there's no particular reason to expect relief, so persistence is the best bet. In the rest of the region, drought is restricted to parts of northern Minnesota, central Illinois, and northwestern Indiana. There are enhanced chances for above-normal MAM precipitation in all these location, thus the forecast for drought removal.

Forecast confidence is moderate in western Iowa and high in the rest of the Midwest region.

Despite the almost-unprecedented cold and wintry conditions covering large parts of Texas in mid-February, drought of varying intensities still dominates southern and western Texas and, less intensely, western Oklahoma. Some areas in Texas are entrenched in extreme drought or worse. This is the southeastern end of the large drought area across the West, so forecast reasoning is similar. The enhanced chances of a warm and dry spring can only lead to conditions staying bad or getting worse, so persistence is forecast. In fact, drought is expected to expand eastward into central Oklahoma and part of eastern Texas by the end of May, at which point the current severe wintry weather will be a distant memory. Spotty areas of abnormal dryness and the enhanced chances for warm and dry MAM conditions are driving the forecast. Farther east, from central Oklahoma and eastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee, only small, isolated areas of drought exist. The recent cold, wet conditions are bringing short-term relief to these areas, but the MAM outlook favors subnormal precipitation in southern parts of the region, and unusually warm conditions everywhere. The sum of all this information favors persistence across Louisiana and Mississippi (despite some short-term relief), but drought removal from Tennessee

Forecast confidence is high in the southern Plains, and low farther east.

The preponderance of tools points toward drought development in central and southern Florida. The MAM outlook tilts significantly toward above-normal temperatures and subnormal precipitation there, where some moisture deficits are already in place. With all of this happening during a relatively dry season under the best of circumstances, drought development seems not only likely, but imminent. Elsewhere, drought is restricted to a small part of Alabama. Cold and wet conditions of late are providing short-term relief, but with enhanced chances of a dry and warm spring, the odds are better than not that these areas will be in drought at the end of May.

Forecast confidence is high in Florida, and low elsewhere in the Southeast region.

Drought has been gradually improving and contracting for the past several months in the Northeast region. Now, only a few patches of moderate drought remain in upstate New York and part of northern New England. Given the recent cold and stormy conditions, along with odds favoring surplus precipitation in the MAM outlook, the logical forecast is for these areas of drought to be gone by the end of spring. 

Forecast confidence is moderate in the Northeast region.

Consistent with La Nina conditions, the outlook favors above-normal rainfall for MAM across Hawaii, which should bring some degree of relief to the areas of drought in central and southeastern parts of the state, although current areas of severe drought or worse could remain by the end of May with reduced intensity. There is no drought in Alaska at this time, but abnormal dryness covers a large part of the state. Right now, there isn't enough evidence to forecast drought development in any specific area, but conditions will be closely monitored. In Puerto Rico, neither dryness nor wetness is favored over the next several months, but the Commonwealth is headed toward a wetter time of year, and the increase in rainfall, even if only near-normal, should be enough to bring an end to the drought by the end of May.
 
Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Richard Tinker

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 18, 2021 at 8:30 AM EST.