Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January through March 2020 (JFM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for the JFM season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The drought areas on the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on December 17, were used. ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a 50 to 55 percent chance of ENSO-neutral continuing into much of summer 2020.

A large storm early in the period should impact the limited existing drought in the Southeast Region. Several inches of rain should soak areas from the central Gulf Coast eastward across northern Florida, southern Georgia, and the southern Carolinas, likely eliminating the areas of drought from the Florida Panhandle northward. Farther south, the system should bring moderate to heavy rain to southern Florida, but totals should remain under two inches away from the Atlantic Coast. Climatologically, JFM is a relatively dry time of year in southern Florida, so precipitation deficits won't accumulate rapidly in the storm's wake; however, odds favor subnormal JFM rainfall accompanied by above-normal temperatures; given the antecedent dryness, a somewhat expanded area of drought is expected to result by the end of the period, though conditions may fluctuate with time, especially given the moderate to heavy rain expected in the short-term.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region outside southern Florida, where confidence is low. 

The Northeast Region remains drought-free, but a small abnormally dry area was analyzed in the Middle Atlantic States. Some indicators show an enhanced chance for drought development in and near the current dry region, but drought emerges slowly here during the colder time of year, and no drought is forecast to develop by the end of March 2020. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.

The Midwest Region is drought-free, with most areas receiving abundant precipitation. There are no indications that any drought will develop by the end of March. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region. 

In the Southern Region, drought should improve across northeastern Texas and central Louisiana, but persist farther west from Deep South Texas to the Red River Valley. There are enhanced chances for surplus precipitation regionwide through the end of December, but below-normal precipitation is favored thereafter in central and southern Texas. Thus, drought is expected to persist there, and expand into adjacent areas. Farther north, the JFM forecast favors neither extreme of precipitation, and the Drought Outlook is based on a combination of (a) the surplus moisture expected through the end of December, (b) increased chances for a wet January from northeastern Texas eastward, and (b) climatology. JFM typically brings about 25 percent of annual precipitation to northeast Texas and Louisiana, and with surplus January precipitation favored, improvement is forecast there. To the west, JFM is a drier time of year, and both the January and JFM forecasts are non-committal, so persistence is expected there.

Forecast confidence is moderate for central and southern Texas, and low farther to the north in the Southern Region. 

Moderate to severe drought covers southern Colorado and a broad adjacent swath centered near the Four Corners Region. The JFM outlook favors enhanced precipitation on the northern fringe of this drought area, but leans neither wet nor dry elsewhere. During the prior few weeks, above-normal precipitation is heavily favored for the last half of December throughout the drought region. Persistence is forecast from south-central Colorado eastward, where JFM is a drier time of year and normals are low, while improvements can be expected farther west.

In other parts of the West Region, patches of drought extend from western Oregon and Washington eastward through Idaho. With surplus precipitation expected on most time scales from late December through the end of March, drought removal is anticipated across Idaho. Farther west, seasonably heavy precipitation is expected into late December from the Cascades westward. JFM is a wet season there, bringing 35 to 40 percent of the annual total. Most tools favor subnormal precipitation across central and western Washington through January, but not for JFM as a whole. The forecast for persistence leans on the below-normal amounts favored for the first half of the period. It should be noted that episodic seasonal storminess affects western Washington and Oregon even during less-robust wet seasons, so some fluctuations in drought intensity may occur there.   

In the West Region, forecast confidence is moderate to high in Idaho, and low across Washington and Oregon. 

In the High Plains Region, drought is restricted to a swath covering southwestern Kansas, which is part of a larger drought area extending westward across southern Colorado and much of the Four Corners Region. The JFM outlook leans neither wet nor dry, but above-normal precipitation is heavily favored for the last half of December; however, this is a relatively dry time of year for southwestern Kansas. Typically, less than 10 percent of annual precipitation falls during JFM, and December usually brings only about three percent. Based on the low normals, above-normal December precipitation should not be sufficient to keep drought from persisting, though it lowers confidence. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to low for the High Plains Region.

Removal of the remaining drought in the Alaska Panhandle is consistent with their generally wet climatology, and heavy precipitation is anticipated through the end of December. Although long-term drought impacts, such as hydro power, will continue in parts of the Alaska Panhandle, drought should finally be removed from southeast Alaska by the end of March. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.

Drought improvement continues across Hawaii. Based on a wetter climatology during the winter along with several tools pointing toward near- or above-normal JFM precipitation, drought is expected to ease or be removed by the end of March. 

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Moderate drought has developed in eastern Puerto Rico, and with JFM being a drier time of year, conditions are not expected to abate by the end of March. 
 
Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: December 19, 2019 at 8:30 AM EST