Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2016 and March-May 2016, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the forecast 5-day and 7-day precipitation totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts, the NAEFS precipitation outlooks, the soil moisture tools based on the Constructed Analog on Soil Moisture (CAS), dynamical models (CFSv2, NMME, IRI, and IMME), the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, the four-month Palmer drought termination and amelioration probabilities, climatology, and initial conditions. El Nino composites were also considered, although its influence should be decreasing as spring progresses.

In the Northeast, remaining areas of drought should be resolved by the end of May. Relative wetness in the short term and low confidence depicted in the March-May outlooks favors improvement given the effectiveness of precipitation recharge this time of year, particularly if it increases snowpack. 
Forecast confidence for the Northeast is low.

The forecast for the new areas of drought in Texas basically hinges on how much March-May precipitation typically contributes to the annual total. Forecasts call for dry weather through the end of February, and enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation thereafter. However, persistence is anticipated in southern Texas, where March-May is a relatively dry time of year; however, drought removal is expected by the end of May in central Texas, where March-May climatology is wetter.  
Forecast confidence for Texas is moderate.

The small area of drought in North Dakota is expected to persist. Dry conditions should dominate through the last half of February while neither dry nor wet conditions are favored during spring. The wetter time of year is starting to get underway in late spring, but uncertainty in the long term and dryness in the short term favor a continuation of present conditions.
Forecast confidence for the Northern Plains is moderate.

In the northern High Plains and adjacent Rockies, odds favor wetter than normal weather in the southern reaches of the region with no discernable tilt of the odds elsewhere. The forecast is based on spring being a wet time of year in the region, bringing better chances for improvement than deterioration.
Forecast confidence for the northern High Plains is low to moderate.

With subnormal precipitation expected until March, the forecast across the West hinges on the March-May outlook. Improvement is forecast for areas where odds favor spring wetness, and persistence where either subnormal precipitation is favored or neither precipitation extreme seems more likely. The exception to this rule is across Arizona, southernmost Nevada, and southern California. Despite enhanced probabilities of wetter than normal spring conditions in these regions, March-May typically contributes only about 15 percent of the annual precipitation total, which has been particularly true for the past 15 years. Even above normal precipitation would likely be insufficient to change drought conditions in the region.
Forecast confidence for The West is generally high, but moderate across the extreme to exceptional drought areas in California, where drought may require substantially more precipitation than normal to significantly improve.

El Nino conditions favor a wetter than average dry season across Puerto Rico, but this has not been the case in drought areas for the last 3 months. Precipitation increases markedly as spring progresses, with more than half of the seasonal total usually falling during May. While the later spring time scale is uncertain to say the least, the entrenched nature of the drought implies that a substantially wetter than normal May would be necessary to bring significant improvement, so persistence is forecast. Still, El Nino enhances the likelihood of a wetter than normal May, leading to reduced confidence in the forecast.
Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is low.

El Nino conditions also favor continued dryness across most of Hawaii, so persistence or deterioration, including substantial drought expansion, is expected. Only some windward areas are expected to remain out of drought by the end of May.
Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high in areas of existing drought and moderate in areas of expected drought expansion, which are always tough to pinpoint in seasonal forecasts.


Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 17, 2016 at 8:30 AM EST