Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for May, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for May, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on April 22, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.

Climatological precipitation is fairly low across most of the Western Region during May, which tends to limit opportunities for substantial drought relief. Early in the month, a cutoff low is favored to bring unusually robust late season precipitation across the Sierras, as well as the Great Bain region. Forecasted precipitation accumulations from this cutoff event approach the typical values seen over the course of the entire month across the Great Basin. Therefore, some drought improvements are possible across central Nevada. Elsewhere, drought persistence remains the favored outcome.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Western Region.

Hit and miss convective precipitation events resulted in a chaotic field of drought improvements and degradations across the High Plains region, although more substantive improvements were noted across northern Colorado and Wyoming. During the next 7-days, widespread heavy precipitation is possible for eastern Colorado and western Kansas, which should promote additional drought relief. Smaller accumulations are forecast for the remainder of the region. During Week-2, a weak tilt towards above-median precipitation extends across much of the High Plains region, though the revised CPC precipitation outlook for May shows enhanced chances for below-median precipitation across the Dakotas. Given the lack of a clear wet signal, drought persistence is the most likely outcome, with a potential for some development across eastern South Dakota. Climatological precipitation increases substantially during May across the northern Plains, and convective events could result in localized drought reductions.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Heavy precipitation brought widespread drought relief across northern Texas, Oklahoma, and the Tennessee Valley, as well as far southern Texas since late March. In contrast, drought conditions continued to slowly expand across west-central and eastern Texas. Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues to plague western and central Texas. During the near term and first half of May, multiple storm systems are favored to generate widespread heavy rainfall across Texas and Oklahoma, potentially resulting in localized flooding hazards. The revised monthly outlook for May reflects this heavy precipitation potential, with high probabilities for above-median precipitation extending across much of the region. Therefore, there is fairly high confidence for drought reductions across much of the Southern Region, particularly across Texas and Oklahoma. Drought persistence is the favored outcome for far western Texas, where precipitation accumulations will likely be lighter.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southern Region.

During April, generous precipitation sparked widespread drought reductions across the Midwest, with the upper-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions seeing the greatest improvements, as well as southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. During May, a drier pattern overall is favored, which, along with above-average temperatures, would maintain high evapotranspirative demands. Therefore, drought persistence is the favored outcome, with slow development possible in areas that received less precipitation during April; including portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa, and far northern and southern Wisconsin. Forecast confidence is fairly low during May due to a relatively high precipitation climatology, and the potential for convective events such as MCS tracks to spark rapid short term improvements.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Midwest Region.

Across the Southeast Region during April, periods of precipitation brought some relief to central Georgia, and the southern Appalachians, while drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded considerably across Florida, southern Georgia, and across the central Appalachians. Increased rainfall is favored for Florida over the next 7 days, and CPC's 8-14 day outlook also favors a wetter pattern for Florida. Given the significantly dry antecedent conditions, however, substantial drought relief across Florida is unlikely to occur during May, and would tend to occur through the summer months as the seabreeze convergence regime kicks into full gear. A more uncertain pattern is favored for the rest of the Southeast during early May, and the revised CPC precipitation outlook for May maintains equal chances across the entire Southeast Region. Given the lack of a clear wet signal, drought persistence is favored, and pockets of additional development are possible across the central Appalachians, the piedmont of North Carolina, and along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Confidence in development is fairly low, however, given the high climatological precipitation during May.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southeast Region.

Following multiple precipitation events during the past 30 days, drought conditions have broadly eased across the Northeast region, with the greatest improvements noted over southern Maryland and the Delmarva peninsula. Impacts from long term drought conditions continue, however, with groundwater levels and streamflows remaining quite low across the mid-Atlantic and eastern New England. Given the lack of a robust improvement in streamflows from recent rains, the area remains highly vulnerable to degradations, with evaptranspirative rates climatologically high. Therefore, any period of dryness in the Northeast region would promote drought persistence and even expansion or intensification. That said, recent dynamical model guidance has begun to shift towards a solution favoring a potential cutoff low and persistent precipitation during early May. This shift has been factored into the latest 7-day QPF forecast from WPC, which now depicts widespread 2" or more of precipitation across much of the mid-Atlantic. Some of the latest dynamical model guidance depicts substantially higher totals. Based on these short term outlooks, drought reduction is indicated for the Northeast Region, but confidence remains low, as any area that misses out on precipitation in the short term will likely see drought expansion during a favored drier pattern emerging by Week-2.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.

No drought is currently indicated for Alaska on the latest US Drought Monitor, though an area of abnormal dryness has been introduced in the Panhandle region due in part to meager mountain snowpack conditions. The updated CPC precipitation outlook for May favors above-median precipitation across eastern Alaska and the Panhandle, with probabilities for reaching the upper tercile of the historical record exceeding 50 percent across the Panhandle. Therefore, drought development is not anticipated to occur during May.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Drought conditions have vacillated throughout the past few months across Hawaii. In the past 30 days, conditions broadly deteriorated across the southeastern islands, while periods of precipitation brought relief to Oahu and Kauai. During Week-1, a fairly wet pattern is favored for Hawaii, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook maintains enhanced chances for above-median precipitation. Based on these outlooks, gradual drought relief is favored, but with fairly low confidence given the penchant for drought impacts to return fairly quickly during drier periods.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently indicated for Puerto Rico on the US Drought Monitor. Dynamical model forecasts indicate widespread precipitation across Puerto Rico over the next two weeks. During Weeks 3-4, model forecasts are more mixed. Given the antecedent conditions and the lack of a clear dry signal in the guidance, drought development is unlikely to occur during May.

Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently indicated for the US Virgin Islands on the US Drought Monitor. Similar to the forecast for Puerto Rico, there is no pronounced dry signal in the dynamical model guidance through May. Therefore, drought development is not anticipated at this time.

Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: May 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT