Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for February, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 28, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.

Climatologically, January is one of the wettest months for much of the west coastal regions and a critical month for moisture supply across the West, as Pacific storms typically bring copious moisture that fills reservoirs and builds snowpacks across the Cascades, Sierras, and Rockies. During the past month, periodic Pacific storms across the Northwest and northern Rockies brought widespread 1 to 2 class drought amelioration over parts of the regions. However, much below normal precipitation prevailed across much of the west coastal region, resulting in drought degradations or expansion across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southwestern quarter of the contiguous United States in January. Given La Niņa conditions continuing to be favored in the February period, the CPC monthly outlooks favor a canonical La Niņa response pattern, with drier conditions across the southern portions of the Western Region and wetter conditions for the Northwest favored. Looking forward to the first week of February, the WPC forecasts storminess across most parts of the west coastal region and brings heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and north-central California with expected heavy snows to the Cascades and additional snowfall falling across the Northern Rockies in the next 7 days. The CPC extended-range, Week 3-4 and February outlooks show enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across the Northwest and northern Rockies, with increased odds for below-normal precipitation across the Southwest. Therefore, gradual drought relief is forecast for portions of the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies, Great Basin, and central California, with persistence maintained across the High Plains due to lower climatological precipitation. Drought persistence is favored for the Southwest with likely development for portions of Arizona and New Mexico.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.

During the past 30 days, periodic precipitation events boosted moisture and improved conditions across parts of the western Dakotas and Wyoming. Elsewhere, little change to drought conditions was observed, as both climatological precipitation and evapotranspirative demands are low during the winter season. However, 1 to 2 class degradation was also observed across portions of southwestern Colorado and Nebraska due to precipitation deficits. Climatologically, much of the High Plains region is a drier time of year, except parts of western Wyoming and Colorado with near normal precipitation and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. The revised February CPC monthly outlook favors above-normal precipitation for the higher elevations of the northern Plains. Elsewhere, equal chances are favored, with forecast below normal precipitation across parts of Colorado and Kansas. Given low climatology, a likelihood for the ground to refreeze under colder conditions and widespread below normal snowpack would seem to preclude widespread improvements during February. Therefore, persistence is maintained throughout much of the High Plains Region, except for northwestern Wyoming and far northeastern Kansas, where removal or improvement is likely due to favorable wet signals.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.

During January, periodic precipitation brought 1 to 2 class drought improvement across parts of eastern Texas, central Arkansas, and Mississippi, but 1 to 2 class drought degradation in areas that didn’t receive sufficient rainfall, including parts of southern Texas, eastern Arkansas, portions of Tennessee. Climatologically, February is a drier time of year for most central and western portions of the region. Looking ahead to the coming month, additional rainfall is favored for the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley over the next week, with dry conditions across much of Oklahoma and Texas. The revised CPC outlook for February favors below normal precipitation across central-western Texas and the gulf coastal areas, and equal chances across much of Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley. Based on the anticipated drier conditions across Texas, some expansion of drought conditions is favored during February. Persistence is maintained elsewhere in the absence of a clear wet signal, except across northern portions of Mississippi and central Tennessee, where above normal precipitation is predicted with a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.

Periodic winter storm activity continued to promote soil moisture recharge and improved drought conditions across Missouri, the Great Lakes Region, and parts of the corn belt over the past four weeks, while drought conditions worsened somewhat across parts of Missouri due to precipitation deficits. Looking ahead into February, the WPC predicts favorable wet signals during Week-1, with 1 to 4 inches of precipitation across much of Kentucky, and southern Illinois and Ohio. The CPC extended range and monthly outlooks all favor above normal precipitation across much of the region. Therefore, drought reductions are favored across much of the region, while persistence is expected for western portions of Minnesota and Iowa, where the wet signal is weaker coupled with a dry climatological season and below normal snowpack.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest Region.

Over the past month, frontal systems brought 1 to 2 class drought improvement to parts of Alabama, northern Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, while a drier month promoted expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness over southern Florida. 1 to 2 class degradation is also observed across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia due to precipitation deficits over the region. Looking forward into February, the WPC predicts some wet signals across northern Virginia next week and the CPC extended range outlooks also favor slightly above normal precipitation across the region. Therefore, drought improvement is favored for parts of northern Virginia. However, all range forecasts favor the drier conditions across central and southern portions of the Southeast region. Persistence of existing drought areas is the most likely outcome with development likely across much of the Florida Peninsula and parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast was a mixed bag for the past season. The dry condition was observed from early November and turned to a wet mid-November through later December, and then flipped to a dry January overall. Extremely low stream flow was observed along most of the east coastal region and adjacent interior areas. During the past month, several winter storms brought some drought relief across the Northeast region. However, some small degradation was seen in parts of the Appalachians and New Jersey. Looking ahead into February, the WPC forecasts a slightly wet signal across much of the region in the next week, providing some additional opportunities for recharge. The CPC extended range forecasts and updated CPC monthly outlook for February show enhanced chances for above-average precipitation across much of the Northeast, but the wet signals are relatively weak and may be not enough to warrant improvements across the whole existing drought areas. Therefore, improvement is favored across parts of northern New England, southwestern Pennsylvania and northern Virginia. Persistence is maintained across the remainder of the existing drought areas.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.

No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during February across Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Drought conditions gradually improved across Hawaii during the past month, except the Big Island, where 1 to 3 class degradation was observed. Given a wet climatology for February and with the CPC outlook favoring above normal precipitation across the Hawaii Islands. Drought reduction is a likely outcome for February.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during February across Puerto Rico.

Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.

No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during February across the US Virgin Islands.

Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 28, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST