Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for February, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. El Nino conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on January 23, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought improvements have been slow and steady across the Pacific Northwest since the start of its wet season. In the northwestern region, given the unfavorable precipitation and temperature outlooks in February, drought conditions are forecast to continue through the end of the month, except parts of western Oregon, where slow improvement is forecast to continue due to forecast above normal precipitation in the first half on the month and February being a wet time of year. Ongoing drought conditions are expected to ease a bit in parts of the Southwest where above normal precipitation is forecast through the most of February. However, even though above normal prediction is favored during February, persistence is likely for the remainder of New Mexico due to February being a rather dry time of year.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Western region.

In the High Plains region, persistence is forecast across much of the existing drought areas, given unfavorable precipitation forecast for February, coupled with a dry time of year and below normal snowpack across much of the region. However, improvements are likely across Kansas where favorable precipitation is expected through the first half of the month and the updated February outlook favors above-normal precipitation.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Central Plains and moderate to high for the remainder of the High Plains.

An active southern storm track associated with the mature El Nino state during February favors drought improvement and removal for much of the region. Also, January was quite wet which also favors continued easing of drought conditions. February monthly temperature signals are lacking (i.e. there are equal chances of above, below, and near normal temperatures). However, favorable precipitation signals are enhanced across these same areas, increasing the likelihood for some improvement to severe to exceptional drought conditions (D2 to D4, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) and removal of moderate drought (D1). Although above normal prediction is favored in the updated February outlook, persistence is likely for western Texas region due to February being a rather dry time of year.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern region.

Drought persistence is favored for most of the Midwest due to unfavorable precipitation outlooks through the month, while some improvements are likely closer to the Ohio River, giving recently heavy precipitation across these areas with potential storm systems passing by and also a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest region.

Improvement and removal is widely favored for the existing drought over Alabama, northwestern Georgia and adjacent North Carolina, associated with a wet January and an active storm track corresponding to the mature El Nino state in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and enhanced near to above normal precipitation chances through much of February, also a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Likewise, the small areas of drought across the Florida Peninsula are likely to see improving conditions due to favorable precipitation for February.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast region.

Drought persistence is favored for the existing small drought areas over parts of western New York and Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket in Massachusetts, where above normal temperatures are forecast and unfavorable precipitation signals are through much of February.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast region.

Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free by the end of February with above normal snowpack for most of the state and favorable precipitation outlooks across much of the state at all leads through the end of the month. Time of year also makes it difficult for drought to develop in Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Drought persistence is favored due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the February, coupled with a mature El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which typically suppress convection during the wet season in Hawaii. Therefore, drought development is likely over currently anomalous dry areas.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.

Given February climatologically being a drier time of year and antecedent moderate drought and abnormal dryness (D1 and D0, respectively, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor), lack of precipitation signals and above normal temperatures predicted through the February favor drought persistence and development in Puerto Rico.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

Antecedent drought conditions (according to the U.S. Drought Monitor), are forecast to persist in Saint Thomas and Saint Croix due to lack of precipitation signals and above normal temperatures are strongly favored in the region through February coupled with February climatologically being a drier time of year. Despite Saint John being drought-free at the start of February, groundwater levels have slowly continued to drop. Therefore, drought development is favored for the island by the end of February due to the same reason as the above.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 29, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST