Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for January, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. El Nino conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on December 26, 2023 was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought improvements have been slow and steady across the Pacific Northwest since the start of its wet season. Precipitation outlooks for the Western region are indicative of a stormier pattern through much of January. In addition, temperature outlooks favor near to cooler than normal conditions at the start of January, with enhanced odds of below normal temperatures through at least the middle of the month, which could lower snow levels and provide some improvements to snowpack for much of West, which is below normal for many locations so far this winter. In the Pacific Northwest, given the favorable precipitation and temperature outlooks throughout January and the wet time of year, slow improvements to drought conditions are forecast to continue through the end of the month. However, in the interior Pacific Northwest and the northern Intermountain West, where precipitation deficits are higher and above normal precipitation signals are weaker at longer lead times, drought persistence is forecast. In the Four Corners region, favorable precipitation and temperature outlooks also indicate an increased likelihood of improving drought conditions, which have been entrenched since the summer due to a below average Southwest Monsoon season. However, improvements are likely to be more targeted in nature. Therefore, a broad area of improvement and removal is depicted in areas where there is at least a 40% chance of above normal precipitation during January. Persistence is favored elsewhere in the Four Corners region, as precipitation totals are likely not to be enough to eliminate long-term drought conditions by the end of January.

Forecast confidence is high for the Pacific Northwest and moderate elsewhere in the Western region.

In the High Plains region, drought conditions are forecast to improve across southwestern Colorado, where the January precipitation outlook favors at least a 40% chance of above normal precipitation. In addition to the stormy pattern that is forecast through much of January, temperature outlooks favor enhanced odds of below normal temperatures through much of the month as well, which may lower freezing levels and aid in the accumulation of snowpack, which is running below normal since the start of fall 2023. Above normal precipitation odds also extend into the Central Plains, where development and intensification of storm systems in the lee of the Rockies is possible. However, January is a very dry time of year for the Great Plains and storm systems are likely to be fast-movers, which will make it difficult to erase long-term precipitation deficits across the Central Plains, in spite of the increased odds of above normal precipitation. Therefore, drought persistence is broadly favored in the Central Plains states, although some targeted areas of improvement and/or removal cannot be ruled out, given the active pattern. Drought persistence is also forecast across the Dakotas, where the soils are likely to remain frozen through the end of January, essentially locking moisture in place.

Forecast confidence is low for the Central Plains and moderate to high for the remainder of the High Plains region.

An active southern storm track associated with the background El Nino state during January favors drought improvement and removal for parts of eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. January monthly temperature signals are lacking (i.e. there are equal chances of above, below, and near normal temperatures). However, precipitation signals are enhanced across these same areas, increasing the likelihood that this region will see some improvement to severe to exceptional drought conditions (D2 to D4, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) and removal of moderate drought (D1). Where precipitation signals are weaker to lacking across the Southern Plains, persistence is broadly favored. However, some targeted improvements cannot be ruled out, given the active pattern forecast through the first half of January and uncertainty in the evolution of these storm systems and their tracks.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern region.

Drought persistence is favored throughout the Midwest. Despite above normal temperatures being favored across the Great Lakes, this region is entering into the heart of winter, so daytime high temperatures are likely not to be high enough for extended periods to result in meaningful degradation of any kind. This is even more so the case across the Upper Midwest, where soils are likely to remain frozen entirely through the end of January. Despite odds tilting toward above normal precipitation across parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys during January, any storm systems passing by will likely be fast-moving and transient in nature, making it harder to improve long-term precipitation deficits.

Forecast confidence is high for the Upper Midwest, moderate for the Great Lakes, and low to moderate for the remainder of the Midwest region.

Drought improvement and removal is widely favored throughout the Southeast region, associated with an active storm track corresponding to the background El Nino state in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and enhanced above normal precipitation chances throughout the month of January. Improvement and removal of drought is also likely along the Southern and Central Appalachians and the Piedmont areas of Carolinas and Virginia, where recent heavy precipitation from coastal storms during December 2023 have primed these areas for additional improvements going forward. Likewise, the small areas of drought across southeastern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula are likely to see improving conditions. The exception is northern parts of Alabama, where persistence is favored due to diminishing precipitation signals at longer lead times.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast region.

In the Northeast region, drought improvement and removal is forecast for parts of eastern West Virginia and Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket in Massachusetts, as recent coastal storm systems during December have eaten into precipitation deficits and the January precipitation outlook favors wetter than normal conditions. Conversely, drought persistence is favored in western New York, where above normal temperatures are favored and precipitation signals are much weaker through the end of January.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast region.

Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free by the end of January. Snowpack is above normal for most of the state and precipitation outlooks are favorable for much of the state at all leads through the end of the month. Time of year also makes it difficult for drought to develop in Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Hawaii was the beneficiary of heavy precipitation from a Kona Low late in November and into early December. There were also episodes of precipitation that continued to slowly improve drought conditions in the weeks that followed leading up to January. Given the wet trend in recent weeks, primed soils due to the recent rainfall, and enhanced chances of above normal precipitation through the middle of January, drought improvement and/or removal is favored by the end of January. However, El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean typically suppress convection during the wet season in Hawaii, so drought conditions are forecast to return by the end of March, according the CPC’s January-February-March Seasonal Drought Outlook released on December 21, 2023.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.

Antecedent moderate drought and abnormal dryness (D1 and D0, respectively, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor), a lack of seasonal precipitation signals, and warmer than normal temperatures favored through the end of January favor drought persistence and development in Puerto Rico. However, development is limited only to areas experiencing abnormal dryness.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

Antecedent drought conditions, exacerbated by Saharan dust leading to suppressed precipitation over the last couple of weeks (according to the U.S. Drought Monitor), are forecast to persist in Saint Thomas and Saint Croix. Furthermore, above normal temperatures are strongly favored in the region through the end of January, with precipitation signals lacking. Despite Saint John being drought-free at the start of January, groundwater levels have slowly continued to drop. Therefore, drought development is favored for the island by the end of January, driven primarily by the January temperature outlooks favoring warmer than normal conditions and January climatologically being a drier time of year.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Adam Hartman

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST